I. new energy vehicle industry creates development opportunities for China’s tires
\u3000\u30001. New energy vehicles are more like consumer electronics, and the new energy vehicle industry chain is landing in China. New energy vehicles are in a period of rapid technological change, and the development model is expected to learn from the consumer electronics industry. Leading automobile manufacturers such as Volkswagen, BMW, Daimler, Toyota, GM, Hyundai and other automobile enterprises have arranged the production capacity of new energy vehicles in China. At present, more than 50 EV and PHEV models have been planned.
\u3000\u30002. New energy vehicle enterprises are more strict in cost control, vehicle manufacturers have great pressure to reduce costs, and domestic tires have more cost-effective advantages. In recent years, Weilai, Tesla and other auto enterprises have selected more cost-effective parts to continuously reduce the manufacturing cost of the whole vehicle. Domestic tire enterprises have more advantages in labor cost, and their performance is not inferior to that of major international brands, and their products are more cost-effective.
\u3000\u30003. Different from traditional vehicles, new energy vehicles put forward all-round new requirements for tires. Chinese and foreign tire enterprises have the same starting point in the research and development and supporting of special tires, and Chinese tire enterprises have accumulated certain technical advantages. New energy vehicles are different from traditional vehicles in terms of mileage, noise and weight. They put forward new requirements for tires in terms of rolling resistance, silence and durability. Chinese tire enterprises have cooperated with new energy vehicle enterprises for a long time, and have continuously launched special tires for new energy vehicles. They have performed well in various evaluations, and are expected to take the lead in supporting new energy vehicles.
\u3000\u30004. Tire is the only contact surface between the vehicle and the ground. The safety and reliability are valued by consumers, and the brand effect is obvious. Domestic tires are expected to improve the brand reputation by supporting new energy models. Chinese tire enterprises have advantages in the field of pure electric accessories, and are expected to improve brand reputation and continue to move towards high-end with the rise of new energy vehicle brands.
II. The prosperity of the tire industry is expected to reverse
\u3000\u30001. Since the boom, the automobile industry has faced the negative impact of the rise in the price of raw materials and the rise in the price of raw materials. ① The United States and the European Union conducted a “double reverse investigation” on Chinese tires and imposed tariffs, which affected the export of Chinese tire enterprises to the United States and Europe; ② Natural rubber is the main raw material for tire production. The rise in the price of natural rubber and other raw materials has pushed up the production cost of tire enterprises and put pressure on the profits of leading enterprises; ③ The price of centralized transportation is high, the phenomenon of “one box is difficult to find” and “one cabin is difficult to find” is common, and the export of tires is blocked; ④ The epidemic situation is repeated, the production capacity of automobile chips is limited, China’s national six-year plan is fully implemented, and the production and sales of automobiles are declining, affecting the tire matching market.
\u3000\u30002. The short-term negative factors are gradually eliminated. It is expected that the tire industry will usher in a boom reversal from the end of the year to January next year. ① Under the background of “double reverse”, tire enterprises actively go to sea, and the scale of overseas production, sales and profits continues to expand. At the same time, China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile industry chain is implemented, the tire consumption market is concentrated in China, and the impact of tariff policy is offset; ② The favorable price situation of tire enterprises is difficult to maintain, the tire inventory has begun to increase, the upstream natural rubber supply is sufficient, the natural rubber price is difficult to maintain a high level for a long time, and has fallen in the short term; ③ The tension in the container transportation market has begun to ease, the container transportation price has declined, and the number of ships at the anchorage of the west American port has decreased rapidly; ④ The production capacity of chip manufacturers is inclined to automobile chips. In the long run, China is expected to expand the production capacity of automobile chips, and the decline in automobile production and sales has narrowed.
Risk warning: risk of raw material price recovery; It is difficult to ease the tension in the centralized transportation market; Continued core shortage in the automotive industry
