Event: Recently, listed insurance companies successively released the premium income data from January to April 2022. The year-on-year growth of the accumulated premium income and the year-on-year growth from January to April 2022 in the first four months of 2022 in the first four months of the 2022 years from January to April in 2022, and the year-on- \ 343.5 billion yuan (yoy-2.7%).
Comments:
I. life insurance premiums continued to differentiate year on year, and The People'S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) performance slightly exceeded expectations
From January to April 2022, the growth rate of life insurance premium income of listed insurance companies was significantly differentiated: PICC Life Insurance (+ 22.09%) CPIC life insurance (+ 4.0%) New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) (+ 3.8%) Ping An Life Insurance (- 2.5%) China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) (- 2.7%). In April, the year-on-year growth rate of life insurance premium income of listed insurance companies in a single month was: PICC Life Insurance + health insurance (+ 71.3%) New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) (+ 12.9%) CPIC life insurance (+ 1.9%) China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) (- 2.1%) Ping an life insurance (- 3.0%). In April, the life insurance premium income of each company continued to be significantly differentiated: The People'S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) , New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) improved by 69.5pct and 17.0pct respectively in a single month on a year-on-year basis, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) continued to be under pressure on a year-on-year basis, China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) , China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) decreased by 8.2pct and 7.6pct respectively on a year-on-year basis The People'S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) premium increased significantly: as of April 2022, the original insurance premium income obtained by PICC Life Insurance and PICC Health was 63.227 billion yuan and 26.081 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 17.18% and 35.9%. In addition, the performance of PICC Health single payment business and PICC Life Insurance periodic payment business exceeded expectations, driving the year-on-year growth of the total premium of The People'S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) life insurance and health insurance sector, slightly exceeding expectations.
We believe that under the multiple pressures of the deepening reform of the life insurance industry, the slow release of industry demand and the repeated impact of the epidemic in many places in China in April on the offline exhibition of agents, it is expected that the new single premium of listed insurance companies will still be under great pressure. In addition, from the liability side, NBV, the main listed insurance company, has not improved significantly, and product sales are still under pressure. Looking forward to the future, it is expected that with the easing of the epidemic and the improvement of the production capacity of the life insurance industry brought about by the reform, the new single business is expected to stabilize under the trend of slowing down.
II. The prosperity of auto insurance has declined due to the epidemic, and China's property insurance has performed well
In terms of property insurance, from January to April 2022, the property insurance premium income of listed insurance companies was as follows: Zhong'an insurance (+ 11.6%) CPIC property insurance (+ 10.6%) China Property Insurance (+ 10.3%) Ping An Property Insurance (+ 8.4%), and the prosperity of property insurance decreased. Affected by the epidemic, the growth rate of original premium income in a single month declined in April: Zhong'an insurance (+ 16.0%) China Property Insurance (+ 2.7%) Ping An Property Insurance (2.2%) CPIC property insurance (- 0.6%). In addition to Zhongan property insurance, the monthly premium income of all property insurance enterprises slowed down to varying degrees. Overall, the monthly property insurance premiums of the four listed property insurance companies totaled 350 billion yuan in April, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.41% and a large decrease of -9.57 PCT compared with + 11.98% in March. Among them, the monthly premium of China Property Insurance and auto insurance was - 1.9% year-on-year, down 6.5pct from March, which is expected to be mainly due to the drag of the epidemic on new car sales. According to the data of China Automobile Association, in April 2022, the production and sales of automobiles reached 1205000 and 1181000 respectively, with a month on month decrease of 46.2% and 47.1%, and a year-on-year decrease of 46.1% and 47.6%. We expect that with the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation, the slowdown of the pressure of comprehensive reform of auto insurance and the continuous improvement of comprehensive cost rate, the company's auto insurance business will rebound, and the gradual recovery of new car sales is expected to promote the recovery of auto insurance growth.
In terms of non auto insurance, the single month premium of China Property Insurance in April was + 9.6% year-on-year, of which the growth rate of Italian health insurance was faster, the single month premium was + 29.55% year-on-year, an increase of 22.44pct compared with March, and the growth of agricultural insurance decreased slightly, but still maintained a good trend. We believe that with the promotion of comprehensive reform, the market competition pattern has improved, and the property insurance industry will resume rapid growth.
Investment suggestion: the pressure on the liability side of life insurance has not been significantly improved, and the long-term good trend of property insurance remains unchanged. The transformation of life insurance is still at the bottom stage, and the inflection point of the liability side has not yet arrived. In the long run, the dividend rate is relatively guaranteed. At present, the industry valuation and institutional positions are low, both at the bottom of the decade. Under the background of promoting channel transformation and upgrading reform in the life insurance industry, listed life insurance companies have launched protection products represented by increased life insurance, providing targeted and high-quality services guided by customers, which is expected to rebound in the future. Affected by the epidemic, the growth rate of auto insurance premiums in the property insurance industry has slowed down periodically, and the development of non auto premiums has made steady progress. It is suggested to pay attention to the multi line layout of the health and elderly care industry, and transform Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (a + H) and China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) (a + H) which are at the forefront of the industry, as well as China's property insurance with stable growth of auto insurance premium income, continuous optimization of non auto business structure and outstanding scale advantages.
Risk tip: the long-term interest rate goes down; The epidemic situation repeats on a large scale; Life insurance reform is less than expected
