Core view
Sector performance: in the past two weeks, the CSI 300 fell 0.69%, the gem index rose 1.68%, and the food and beverage (CITIC) index fell 1.59%. Compared with the CSI 300, the relative income was – 0.90%, ranking 25th among the 29 sub industries of CITIC. Among the molecular sectors, the meat products sector has increased by 2.18% in the past two weeks, the seasoning sector has decreased by 3.37% in the past two weeks, the snack food sector has increased by 4.72% in the past two weeks, the quick-frozen food sector has increased by 0.45% in the past two weeks, and other food sectors have increased by 4.34% in the past two weeks.
Sector valuation level: the PE (TTM) valuation of the food sector this week reached 40.45x, higher than the 8-year average (37.64x) and the 5-year average (38.92x). The valuation of the sector rose this week compared with the previous period. Among them, the PE valuation of meat products / condiments / snack foods / quick-frozen foods / other foods is 36.76/53.62/34.62/42.56/27.57 times respectively, 46.32% / 2.01% / – 12.64% / – 53.39% / – 41.19% higher than the 8-year average valuation respectively. The valuation of meat products and condiments is higher than the historical level, and the valuation of snack foods, quick-frozen foods and other foods is at a historically low level
In terms of the rise and fall of individual stocks, the five stocks with the highest increase in share prices in recent two weeks are Shanghai Laiyifen Co.Ltd(603777) / Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) / Guangdong Ganhua Science & Industry Co.Ltd(000576) / Yantai Shuangta Food Co.Ltd(002481) / Anji Foodstuff Co.Ltd(603696) ; The five stocks with high weekly average turnover rate are Anji Foodstuff Co.Ltd(603696) / Qingdao Richen Food Co.Ltd(603755) / Haixin Foods Co.Ltd(002702) / Qinghai Spring Medicinal Resources Technology Co.Ltd(600381) / Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) ; The five stocks with high trading volume are Yantai Shuangta Food Co.Ltd(002481) / Shandong Longda Meat Foodstuff Co.Ltd(002726) / Wanzhou International / Anji Foodstuff Co.Ltd(603696) / Xiwang Foodstuffs Co.Ltd(000639) .
Reminders of important matters in the later stage: convening of the general meeting of shareholders: Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) , Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Qingdao Richen Food Co.Ltd(603755) , Yihai international, Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) , Three Squirrels Inc(300783)
Investment proposal and investment object
In the past two weeks, the sector has been significantly affected by the fluctuation of market sentiment. During the week of May Day holiday (4.29-5.6), the travel data is depressed, pessimistic expectations continue to brewing, and the target of home benefit has increased significantly; However, in the second week after the festival (5.6-5.13), with the new low number of new cases in Shanghai, the resumption of epidemic prevention infrastructure construction (normalized nucleic acid detection point), the recovery of market sentiment and the repair of travel expectations, the related targets of offline business formats ushered in a stock price inflection point. At a time when the epidemic situation repeatedly interferes with demand, logistics and market sentiment, we suggest to optimize the target from the perspective of short-term performance certainty and long-term spatial growth. 1) recommend Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) ( Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) , buy) with clear inflection point of Q2 performance, and pay attention to Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) ( Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , not rated). 2) It is recommended that Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) ( Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , buy) with sufficient pessimistic expectations and clear medium-term growth path, and is expected to usher in the repair of the operating margin with the return to work. It is recommended to pay attention to Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) ( Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , buy) with the valuation in a historical position and sufficient safety margin.
Condiment: from the demand side, the current industry pressure is still large. In April of 22, the social zero catering revenue decreased by 22.7% year-on-year. The consumption scene of the industry is blocked, and the channel end is also facing great inventory pressure. However, in terms of trend, with the significant decline in the number of new infections in Shanghai and other places and the gradual control of the epidemic situation, the demand side situation is expected to improve month on month. On the cost side, the industry pressure is still high, and the prices of soybean meal, soybean and packaging materials are still high. In the short-term dimension, we suggest paying attention to Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) ( Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , not rated) which is expected to meet the performance inflection point; In the medium and long-term dimension, for the subject matter whose current valuation has fallen more, we suggest to seize the layout opportunity, such as condiment leader Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) ( Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , buy).
Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) ( Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , buy) update: from the short-term perspective, Q2 and Q3, Q2 has a certain small packaging market, Q3 has a low base effect, the external environment shipping cost and exchange rate also show an improvement trend, and the fundamentals are expected to show marginal improvement. At present, the company’s valuation is close to the low point in early 19, the pessimistic expectation of the market has been fully reflected, and there is limited room for decline; In the medium and long term, the company’s yeast concentric circle diversified development ideas are clear and the growth logic is clear. Although the normal growth rhythm is disturbed due to rising costs, weak consumption and excessive price increase in the early stage in the short term, and the performance is under pressure, with the gradual return of internal and external factors to normal, the company’s revenue and profit are expected to return to the normal growth center. It is suggested to grasp the layout opportunity.
Snack food: at present, in the short-term dimension, we suggest paying attention to Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) ( Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , buy) with stable operation, effective cultivation of the second growth curve, low cost pressure and marginal improvement expected from price increase. In the medium and long term dimension, due to the continuous reform of companies under the pressure of the industry, we suggest paying attention to the reform trend of the industry and grasping the investment opportunities brought by the gradual emergence of the reform results, such as Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) ( Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) , buy), accelerating the deployment of offline channels Three Squirrels Inc(300783) ( Three Squirrels Inc(300783) , not rated), the end of store adjustment and the increase of store expansion speed is expected to accelerate Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) ( Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) , overweight).
Quick frozen food: according to the channel feedback, the sales of supermarkets in April achieved rapid growth. At present, the impact of the epidemic is still significant and the logistics is improved. It is expected that the dynamic sales of C-end will remain strong from May to June. At the same time, the favorable decline of pig price has been transmitted to the cost side. The Q1 statement side confirmed that the cost pressure caused by the rise of flour and oil is relatively controllable, the price increase of leading companies has also been conducted smoothly, and the profitability of the industry is expected to continue to improve while the income is accelerated, Superimposed with the low base effect, the Q2 performance of the sector is expected to accelerate. It is suggested to pay attention to Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) ( Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , overweight), Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) ( Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , not rated), Sanquan Food Co.Ltd(002216) ( Sanquan Food Co.Ltd(002216) , buy).
Halogen products: due to the repeated impact of the epidemic in Beijing, Shanghai and other places, some stores in high-speed cities of the halogen industry are suspended, which will affect the revenue growth rate in the second quarter. At present, the epidemic in Shanghai has been gradually controlled, and the revenue growth rate may rebound in the third quarter; At present, the leader of bittern flavor maintains the strategy of taking stores against the trend, and the market share is increased with strong certainty; It is suggested to pay attention to Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) ( Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , buy), and it is also suggested to pay attention to Zhou Heiya (01458, not rated) who is in the process of franchise rapid store expansion and supply chain optimization.
Baking and tea raw materials: at present, the price of oil and other raw materials is still at a high level, but the strong demand in the downstream determines that expanding production capacity and seizing market share is the main line of the industry. It is recommended to pay attention to the leader of frozen baking Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) ( Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , not rated) and the supplier of tea vegetable fat powder raw materials Jiahe Foods Industry Co.Ltd(605300) ( Jiahe Foods Industry Co.Ltd(605300) , not rated).
Risk tips
Rising raw material costs, intensifying industry competition, sudden food safety incidents, etc
