In April 2022, the express industry continued to grow negatively due to the impact of the epidemic. In April 2022, the business volume of national express service enterprises completed 7.48 billion pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 11.9%. The growth rate (30.8%) in the same period of last year changed from positive to negative, and the decline of growth rate (- 3.1%) in March 2022 expanded; The business revenue reached 74.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%, the growth rate (14.3%) of the same period of the previous year changed from positive to negative, and the growth rate (- 4.2%) in March 2022 expanded; The single ticket revenue was about 9.90 yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year and 3.3% month on month compared with the same period in March 2022. In the first April of 2022, the CR8 index of the express industry was 84.5, an increase of 4.1 year-on-year and a decrease of 0.4 month on month compared with March 2022.
In April 2022, the average single ticket revenue of express business in Jinhua (Yiwu) region and Guangzhou increased and decreased month on month. In April 2022, the average single ticket income of express business in Zhejiang Province was about 5.48 yuan, an increase of 0.16 yuan compared with March 22, and the average single ticket income of express business in Jinhua (Yiwu) region was about 3.06 yuan, a decrease of 0.01 yuan compared with March 22; The average single ticket income of express business in Guangdong Province was about 8.58 yuan, an increase of 0.75 yuan over March 22, and the average single ticket income of express business in Guangzhou was about 8.24 yuan, an increase of 0.92 yuan over March 22.
In April 2022, the physical online shopping agency showed zero negative growth. In April 2022, the total amount of social zero in China decreased by 11.1% year-on-year, expanding the decline compared with the growth rate (- 3.5%) in the same period in March 22; The online retail sales of physical goods decreased by 1.0% year-on-year, from positive to negative compared with the same period in March 22 (2.7%); The proportion of physical online shopping cooperatives (online retail sales of physical goods / total national social retail sales) was 25.9%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.63pct and a month on month decrease of 0.08pct. On the whole, under the background of repeated outbreaks in China, consumption has been greatly impacted, with negative growth in the total amount of social zero and physical online social zero. At the same time, under the epidemic prevention and control, some offline consumer demand has shifted to online, and the proportion of physical online shopping social zero remains at a high level. Considering the decline of logistics efficiency caused by the upgrading of prevention and control measures in some regions, the repeated epidemic in China has a negative impact on the express industry as a whole. However, with the gradual emergence of the effect of epidemic prevention and control in China in the future, the supply and demand of the express industry will also recover.
In April 2022, the revenue growth rate of major express companies decreased month on month. In April 2022, the monthly business volume of SF, Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong decreased by 10.0%, 19.4%, 4.8% and 7.7% respectively year-on-year, of which the decline of Yunda was higher than the industry average (11.9%); In April 2022, the average monthly single ticket income of SF, Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong was 15.40 yuan, 2.53 yuan, 2.44 yuan (after adjustment) and 2.46 yuan (after adjustment), respectively, with a year-on-year change of -0.12, -0.07, + 0.04 and + 0.03 yuan compared with March 22, and a year-on-year change of -0.43, + 0.49, + 0.29 and + 0.33 yuan respectively. Overall, due to the impact of the epidemic, the business volume of major express companies decreased year-on-year in April, of which Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) was seriously injured, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic in Shanxi; However, in terms of single ticket income, Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) and Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) 4 still achieved month on month growth, indicating that the price war in the industry continues to ease. In April 2022, the growth rates of Shunfeng, Yunda, Yuantong and Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) business revenue were – 8.5%, 0.03%, 10.8% and 11.4% respectively, which were significantly lower than those in March 22 (respectively – 5.9%, 23.4%, 15.7% and 24.0%), with year-on-year changes of – 23.3, – 16.3, – 16.7 and + 5.9pct respectively.
Investment suggestion: China’s epidemic situation is repeated, and the production and operation of express companies are negatively impacted; The single ticket revenue of some express companies rose month on month in April, and the industry price war slowed down or will continue to be verified, thus promoting the profit recovery of express companies. We maintain the “overweight” rating of the industry, recommend S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) and Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , and suggest paying attention to China Express (H) and Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) .
Risk analysis: the macroeconomic downturn leads to the decline of express demand; The growth of e-commerce was lower than the market expectation, resulting in a decline in the growth rate of express demand; The penetration rate of online shopping increased slowly; The competition in the express industry exceeded expectations, resulting in a sharp decline in single ticket revenue.
