Inverter is the core component of photovoltaic power generation and energy storage system, with a corresponding market space of more than 100 billion in 2023. Function: inverter is a device to realize the mutual conversion of DC and ac. it also has the function of maximizing the performance of solar cell and system fault protection in photovoltaic power generation system; The bidirectional conversion between battery system and power grid is realized in electrochemical energy storage system. Type: energy storage converter and photovoltaic inverter are technically homologous. Photovoltaic inverter products include centralized, distributed, series and micro inverters. In 2020, the market share of series inverter in China was 66.5%, which is the mainstream product of photovoltaic inverter. Space: according to our calculation, the global market space will exceed 100 billion in 2023, and the CAGR will be 18% from 2021 to 2025, of which the energy storage converter will contribute the largest increment. In the industrial chain: IGBT, the core functional component of inverter, is relatively dependent on overseas supply. At present, the domestic substitution process is under way.
Three decades of agitation, cost reduction and space development are the two main lines of inverter development. The development of inverter can be divided into four stages: (1) initial stage 1991 ~ 2011: first mover advantage, SMA outshines others. In 1991, German SMA developed and produced the first inverter by relying on excellent power electronic technology. The vigorous development of European Photovoltaic Market in the early 21st century catalyzed the rapid development of SMA, and the global market share of inverter (shipment caliber, the same below) remained above 30% from 2007 to 2011. (2) Cost lead period 20112014: material cost reduction and manual cost reduction. With market expansion + technology diffusion, Chinese enterprises have gained significant cost advantages by virtue of lower labor costs and material prices. Taking the data of 2010 as an example, the unit cost of Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) is only 56% of the cost of SMA. The global market share of Chinese enterprises rose sharply from 6% in 2012 to 31% in 2014, and the average price of centralized inverter decreased from 0.8 yuan / W in 2011 to 0.25 yuan / W in 2014. (3) Technology leads the reduction of the current period from 2014 to now: technology is the first driving force. There are two ways to reduce the cost of technology. From the perspective of improving the overall yield of the power station, the series inverter began to rise; From the perspective of reducing the single watt cost of inverter, series inverter began to evolve to improve power. (4) Development of new fields 2017 to present (in parallel with the technology leading reduction of the current period): mlpe manufacturers shine brightly. The new regulations of NEC in the United States require component level shutdown, which promotes the rapid development of mlpe manufacturers enphase and solardedge, and the rise of micro inverter products.
Technology upgrading + category expansion, domestic inverters ride the wind and waves. In the field of series inverter, Huawei released ± 1500V bipolar intelligent series products in 2021. Huawei and Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) promoted material innovation, cost reduction and efficiency increase through the layout of silicon carbide second generation, which made the head enterprises recast barriers. The ground power station and medium and large-scale industrial and commercial fields showed the characteristics of Huawei and Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) strong. In the field of micro inverter, the current situation of micro inverter industry is similar to the development of centralized inverter around 2010. In terms of space, it is at the beginning of large-scale. The product performance of Chinese manufacturers is comparable to that of overseas leading enterprises. In terms of pattern, overseas manufacturers occupy an absolute leading position, and Chinese enterprises are significantly lower than overseas enterprises in cost control. We only consider the current participants in the micro reverse industry. Hemai shares is likely to follow the path Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) walked out of that year, surpassing overseas enterprises and becoming a global leader. In the field of energy storage converters, Chinese enterprises are on a par with overseas enterprises in terms of product power; From the perspective of channels, many Chinese enterprises have a relatively good foundation Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.Ltd(300693) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) and other key enterprises in the energy storage business, the revenue and profit of the energy storage business will increase significantly in the next few years.
Investment suggestions: in the field of series, the leading enterprise is HENGQIANG, and the overseas channels are gradually improved: recommend the leading enterprise of inverter Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) ; Recommended household inverter enterprises Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) . In the field of micro inverter, domestic enterprises are expected to re carve the road of centralized rise: it is recommended that China’s Micro inverter enterprise Hemai Co., Ltd. Energy storage expands more space for inverter Enterprises: recommended Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.Ltd(300693) .
Risk analysis: overseas market operation risk; IGBT shortage risk; The PV installation is less than the expected risk.
