Event: according to the official wechat official account of Huasheng new energy, the company plans to carry out phase III 4.8gw double-sided microcrystalline hjt intelligent factory project in Xuancheng, Anhui Province. The 4.8gw project will complete the moving in, commissioning and operation of all equipment in q1-q3 in two phases in 2023. It is estimated that by the middle of 2022, Huasheng will realize the production capacity of hjt batteries and components of 2.7gw respectively. With the addition of this 4.8gw production expansion plan, Huasheng's total production capacity of hjt batteries in 2023 will exceed 7.5GW at least.
Hjt battery has significant long-term advantages. Improving efficiency and reducing cost (silver slurry and silicon consumption) are the focus of short-term work. Hjt battery has the characteristics of high conversion efficiency, low light attenuation, low temperature process, high weak light response and so on. It has a huge space for cost reduction and efficiency improvement. It is one of the technologies with the most significant long-term competitive advantage in the new photovoltaic power generation technology. The production expansion of hjt industry is expected to reach 20-30gw in 22 years, including rec4.5 in India The order for 8GW equipment has been given to Maiwei, and Longji has also started the construction of hjt R & D and pilot test line this year. The main problem that puzzles the large-scale industrialization of hjt in the short term is the cost. Photovoltaic cost reduction can be divided into two paths: improving conversion efficiency and reducing material and equipment costs. Among them, equipment Depreciation accounts for a low proportion in the single w cost structure of battery. Therefore, cost reduction is mainly reflected in reducing the cost of silicon wafer, silver paste and target. At present, cost reduction nodes such as smbb, large capacity equipment and single-sided microcrystalline PECVD have been realized. We expect that in the future, hjt parity nodes mainly include double-sided microcrystalline PECVD, half rod sheet, localization of silver clad copper, target optimization, etc.
Double sided microcrystalline is expected to increase the mass production efficiency to more than 25.5%, and Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) double sided microcrystalline PECVD takes the lead, which is expected to continue to benefit. Microcrystalline PECVD is an important node for hjt to increase efficiency. The mass production data of positive surface microcrystalline PECVD is expected to reach about 25%, and the efficiency is expected to reach 25.5% after superimposing back surface microcrystalline (double-sided microcrystalline). On April 30, 2021, the first batch of 210 cells of Huasheng phase II 2gw high efficiency microcrystalline hjt project were successfully produced, with the maximum conversion efficiency of 24.68%, open circuit voltage of 0.746v and current density of 39mA / cm2. Compared with the data of 23.4% of the first amorphous hjt of Huasheng phase I, all performances have been greatly improved. With the deepening of process commissioning, it is expected to quickly reach the average efficiency of mass production of 25%. Compared with single-sided microcrystals, double-sided microcrystals have greater potential. On March 17, Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) combined with Australian Metallization Technology Company sundrive, the efficiency of double-sided microcrystals was 26.07%, and the average conversion efficiency of mass production is expected to reach more than 25.5%. This time, Huasheng New Energy announced the expansion of 4.8gw double-sided microcrystalline PECVD, which is the first large-scale expansion of double-sided microcrystalline technology in the world. In addition, the cavity of double-sided microcrystalline needs to be added on the basis of single-sided microcrystalline PECVD, which slows down the decline of single GW investment of equipment, Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) is expected to continue to benefit from the promotion of double-sided microcrystalline technology.
Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) helps hjt silicon chip reduce cost, and Huasheng is expected to introduce silver clad copper in the third quarter to reduce the cost of silver paste. Hjt low temperature process not only makes the battery temperature coefficient lower and the power generation in the whole life cycle greater, but also provides greater potential for silicon wafer thinning. Half bar flake is an important node for hjt to reduce silicon cost. Among them, Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) half bar flake equipment layout is fast. Hjt flake cutting laboratory is jointly built with Aikang, and Huasheng has also become a high-tech customer. Huasheng is based on 130135 μ The thinning optimization experiment of silicon wafer with thickness of M has been qualified and will be introduced into mass production in phase II project. On May 15, Anhui Huasheng new materials (Huasheng new energy subsidiary) held the first equipment moving ceremony of the silicon wafer project in Xuancheng base. Huasheng new materials plans to invest in the 3.5gwhjt single crystal silicon wafer project for battery. At present, the phase I project plans to achieve a production capacity of 1.8gw, a total investment of 240 million yuan, and the annual output value is expected to exceed 600 million yuan. In the future, Huasheng will promote the technological progress and cost reduction of hjt special silicon wafer and boost the development of the industry through two channels: self built silicon wafer factory and strategic cooperation with major silicon wafer suppliers in the industry. In addition to the cost reduction of silicon wafer, silver paste is also an important link of cost reduction of hjt. The single-chip silver consumption of Huasheng m6-12bb battery has been reduced to less than 150mg. At present, the batch test results of the company's silver clad copper paste production line are good, and it is planned to use silver clad copper paste on the back secondary grid in the third quarter of 2022. It is estimated that this will reduce the single-chip silver slurry consumption of Huasheng hjt battery to 120mg. According to the planned low-temperature silver pulp, Huasheng will replace 11.4mg silver pulp, and the problem of high consumption of silver pulp will be fully solved in 2023.
Investment recommendation: it is suggested to pay attention to the equipment targets in the hjt industrial chain to continuously promote the cost reduction and efficiency improvement of hjt: [ Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) ] [ Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) ] [ Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) ] [ Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) ] [ Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) ] [ Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) ] [ J.S.Corrugating Machinery Co.Ltd(000821) ].
[ Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) ] the company's investment in single GW of the whole hjt line is about 10 times higher than that of the company's traditional silk screen printing business, and it takes only one year from hjt project initiation to shipment, leading in R & D efficiency and execution ability. At present, the company's hjt whole line equipment accounts for about 70% of the market, and actively promotes the cooperation among battery factories, silicon wafer factories, slurry factories, equipment factories and auxiliary material factories in the hjt industrial chain to reduce the cost of hjt. In the future, on the one hand, it will benefit from the increase of equipment market scale brought by the industrialization promotion of hjt, on the other hand, it will take the lead in the layout of double-sided microcrystalline, low indium and indium free, electroplating and other technologies, which is expected to continue to maintain a high market share.
[ Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) ] smbb high-precision serial welding is an important step to reduce the consumption of silver paste by cooperating with the graphical process of electrode preparation. Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) high-precision serial welding technology is leading and has won the order of Huasheng hjt serial welding machine, which is expected to promote hjt to continuously reduce the silver consumption. In addition to smbb series welding, the company's LED light injection equipment can repair the efficiency loss of n-type battery. The subsidiary Songci electromechanical single crystal furnace focuses on the n-type silicon wafer market, which is expected to help hjt reduce costs and increase efficiency.
[ Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) ] the company's photovoltaic laser equipment industry accounts for more than 80% of the market, and the layout of TOPCON / hjt / IBC various high-efficiency technologies, among which the silver slurry saving of laser transfer equipment exceeds 10 million per GW (perc data, n-type double-sided battery is expected to be higher), which is expected to speed up the industrialization process of n-type battery. Hjt LIA (repair passivation equipment) has obtained orders from European customers, which can realize battery efficiency repair and component anti attenuation. It is also expected to help hjt reduce cost and increase efficiency.
[ Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) ] double line layout cutting equipment and diamond wire. The research and development of hjt half bar and sheet cutting is leading. Relevant equipment has obtained orders from Huasheng, and has cooperated with Aikang to build hjt sheet cutting laboratory. In the future, it is expected to force the OEM of hjt half bar and sheet cutting.
It is recommended to pay attention to the photovoltaic equipment manufacturers with hjt technology layout, such as [ Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) ] [ Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) ] [ J.S.Corrugating Machinery Co.Ltd(000821) ], with high flexibility in order performance.
Risk tip: the iteration of photovoltaic technology is less than expected, the cost reduction of hjt is less than expected, and the market competition intensifies the risk
