Core view
Overview of Q1 of photovoltaic sector from 2021 to 2022: the industry has achieved both “volume” and “price” and maintained a high boom. 1) Volume: in China, in 2021, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic reached a record high of 54.88gw, with a year-on-year increase of + 13.86%. The proportion of new installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic power station exceeded that of centralized photovoltaic power station for the first time. In Q1 of 2022, the newly installed capacity of photovoltaic reached 13.21gw, a year-on-year increase of + 147.84%, and the newly installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic accounted for 67%. The industry is not light in the off-season. Overseas, component exports in 2021 were + 35.37% year-on-year, and Q1 component exports in 2022 were + 111.36% year-on-year, mainly due to the exceptionally strong terminal demand in India and Europe; 2) Price: in 2021, the shortage of silicon materials pushed up the price of the whole industry chain, and the price of silicon materials / silicon wafers / battery Wafers / components were + 171.29% / + 46.07% / + 11.22% / + 10.47% year-on-year respectively; In 2022, the supply of Q1 silicon material is still insufficient, which continues to push up the price of the industrial chain. The average price of silicon material / silicon wafer / battery wafer / module is + 7.33% / + 3.91% / + 1.79% / + 0.53% respectively.
Interpretation of the 2021 annual report of the photovoltaic sector: overall revenue, high performance growth, improved profitability, and differentiated performance of each sector. 1) Overall: in 2021, the segment achieved a revenue of 596298 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 44.54%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 69.615 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 75.79%; The gross profit margin was 23.97%, year-on-year + 0.59pct; During the period, the expense rate was 10.63%, year-on-year -1.54pct, and the net interest rate was 12.06%, year-on-year + 2.21pct; 2) Sub links: a) main industrial chain: silicon materials stand out, with a gross profit margin of 64.13%, a year-on-year increase of + 33.97 PCT, seizing most of the profits of the industrial chain; The price of silicon wafer is highly conductive and the profitability remains high; The profitability of the battery reached the bottom, with a gross profit margin of 7.52%, a year-on-year increase of -7.00pct; The profitability of components is under pressure, with a gross profit margin of 13.66%, a year-on-year increase of -4.59pct; b) Auxiliary material industry chain: the gross profit margin of carbon thermal field, silver paste, photovoltaic glass and adhesive film fell under the pressure of raw material price rise; The gross profit margin of inverter declined under the influence of exchange rate, shipping freight and raw material price rise; c) Equipment side: with the accelerated expansion of silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery chips and components, there is a strong demand for equipment. Increased competition in the industry has led to a decline in profitability, and the profitability of enterprises mastering large-scale new products and n-type battery technology has improved. At the end of 2021, the contract liabilities increased significantly, which confirmed that there were sufficient orders on hand and helped the subsequent performance growth.
Interpretation of the first quarterly report of photovoltaic sector in 2022: the overall revenue and performance growth are bright, and the profitability of some links is improved month on month. 1) Overall: Q1 achieved a revenue of 171679 billion yuan in 2022, a month on month increase of + 4.40% and a year-on-year increase of + 73.64%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 20.896 billion yuan, a month on month increase of + 69.05% and a year-on-year increase of + 111.59%; The gross profit margin was 22.52%, with a month on month increase of + 2.09pct and a year-on-year increase of + 0.19pct; The expense rate during the period was 8.37%, with a month on month ratio of -1.78pct and a year-on-year ratio of -2.36pct; The net interest rate was 12.74%, with a month on month increase of + 5.12pct and a year-on-year increase of + 2.40pct; 2) Sub links: a) main industrial chain: silicon material is still strong and profitability remains high; The price conductivity of silicon wafer is still good; The profitability of battery cells and components was repaired month on month; b) Auxiliary material industry chain: carbon thermal field, silver paste, photovoltaic glass and adhesive film are still subject to the price rise of raw materials, and the gross profit margin continues to decline; The profitability of inverters has improved significantly month on month, mainly because some companies in Q4 began to raise the price of inverters in 2021; c) Equipment end: the downstream continued to expand production to promote the demand for equipment, and the profitability still declined slightly. At the end of Q1 in 2022, the contract liabilities of the equipment factory increased year-on-year, which confirmed that there were sufficient orders on hand, reflecting the strong production demand in the downstream links of the equipment and the maintenance of a high outlook in the industry.
Investment advice
The supply and demand pattern is tight, and the profitability is expected to continue to be the leading silicon materials Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) ; Component integrated faucet Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) ; Photovoltaic + energy storage dual wheel drive inverter faucets Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) ; Photovoltaic glass duopoly Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Xinyi solar energy benefiting from the improvement of double glass permeability; EVA film faucets with relatively tight supply and demand Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) ; Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , benefiting from the increased proportion of distributed photovoltaic.
Risk tips
The demand for photovoltaic installation is less than expected; The policy promotion was less than expected.
