Matters:
The State Post Office released the latest April data of the express industry. In April, the business volume of national express service enterprises reached 7.48 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 11.9%; Business income reached 74.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%.
Listed companies released operating data for April. In April, S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) express logistics business volume decreased by 10.0% year-on-year, and the unit price increased by 1.7% year-on-year Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) business volume decreased by 19.4% year on year, and unit price increased by 24.0% year on year Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) business volume decreased by 4.8% year-on-year and unit price increased by 16.4% year-on-year Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) business volume decreased by 7.7% year on year, and unit price increased by 20.7% year on year.
Guoxin transportation view: 1) in April, the business volume growth of the express industry was impaired, with a growth rate of - 11.9%, mainly due to the negative impact on the express operation caused by the blockade and prevention and control of the epidemic in many places represented by Shanghai, including the suspension of express outlets in areas with serious epidemic, the obstruction of trunk transport vehicles in and out of the epidemic area, and the impairment of operation efficiency caused by the upgrading of epidemic prevention and control in transit centers. In the context of supervision and control, the price war in the express industry has been easing. However, due to the rise of express operating costs and the fluctuation of regional structure of express business volume caused by the epidemic in April, the price of single ticket in the industry fluctuated, with a month on month increase of about 0.17 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1%, and the decline narrowed in the same period. 2) In the context of the impact of the epidemic, SF superimposed factors such as active business contraction and cost control. In April, the company's express logistics business volume decreased by 10.0% year-on-year, and the timeliness express business also decreased year-on-year, in line with expectations; The business volume of Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong fell year-on-year in April, with a year-on-year decline of - 19.4% and - 4.8% - 7.7% respectively. Due to the outbreak of the epidemic in the logistics park of Yunda in Taiyuan, Shanxi, its business volume was affected more than that of other peers (at present, the express operation in Taiyuan, Shanxi has basically returned to normal); Due to the rise of express operating costs and the fluctuation of regional structure of express business volume caused by the epidemic, the single ticket prices of Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong increased significantly year-on-year, which were + 24.0%, + 16.4% and + 20.7% respectively. 3) Investment suggestion: the impact of the epidemic is one-off, and the demand for short-term express delivery is more restrained than disappeared. We believe that after the recovery of the national epidemic, the demand for express delivery is expected to rebound. Since the beginning of May, the national express logistics supply chain has been gradually restored. During the "May Day" holiday (April 30-may 4), the national express industry has operated smoothly, receiving 1.34 billion express packages, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, and delivering 1.47 billion express packages, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%; In the middle of May, the daily average of express collection and delivery business volume in Shanghai, which was most seriously affected by the epidemic, reached more than 1 million orders, returning to one sixth of the normal level; At present, the epidemic situation in Beijing has little impact on express delivery operations, and the average daily business volume of mainstream express delivery companies has been close to the level of the same period last year. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation and profits of the company will continue to rise significantly this year, the company is expected to achieve significant profit recovery under the influence of the epidemic situation; For SF, the company's overall capacity is sufficient and will be able to meet the needs of business development for a long time in the future. We expect that in 2022, the company's capital expenditure will begin to decline and the asset utilization rate will be improved. The company will continue to enjoy the cost optimization benefits brought by the four networks financing and refined operation, and the performance in 2022 is expected to be significantly repaired. Continue to recommend Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) and S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) .
Comments:
Industry business volume: affected by the epidemic in April, the industry business volume decreased by 11.9% year-on-year
Continuing the boom trend of e-commerce express under the background of the epidemic in 2020, the growth of the express industry was still bright in the first half of 2021, but the growth rate of the express industry began to decline gradually in the second half of 2021 with the weak consumption of e-commerce. Finally, the business volume of the express industry increased by 30% in 2021, and the growth rate in the fourth quarter has dropped to 15.8%. From January to February 2022, the growth rate picked up month on month. However, due to the negative impact of the epidemic on online consumption and express delivery operations in April, we saw that the online retail sales of physical goods in China decreased by 5.7% year-on-year, and the business volume of express delivery industry decreased by 11.9% year-on-year.
Industry price: the epidemic has led to a significant increase in the unit price of the industry in the short term
In the context of supervision and control, the price war in the express industry has been easing. Due to the large price increase in Yiwu last year, Yiwu has formed an obvious price difference with other key regions represented by Chaoshan this year. Recently, the industry adjusted the price difference between different regions, resulting in a correction in Yiwu's price, which belongs to price structural adjustment. At present, the price competition in the industry is still rational. In April, due to the impact of the epidemic, the operating efficiency of express delivery decreased, the operating cost increased, and the regional structure of business volume changed. The single ticket price of the industry fluctuated, with a month on month increase of about 0.17 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1%, and the year-on-year decrease narrowed. In April, the industry CR8 index was 84.5, down 0.4 percentage points month on month.
Comments on the operating data of express companies in April
(1) S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) : in April, the business volume of S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) express logistics decreased by 10.0% year-on-year, and the unit price increased by 1.7% year-on-year. In the context of the impact of the sealing and control management of the epidemic, SF superimposed factors such as active business contraction and cost control, resulting in a year-on-year decline in the volume of express logistics business in April and a year-on-year decline in the timeliness express business.
(2) Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) : in April, the business volume decreased by 19.4% year-on-year, and the single ticket price increased by 24.0% year-on-year. Affected by the sealing and control management of the epidemic situation in Shanghai, Taiyuan and other cities, the company's business volume fell year-on-year in April. In addition, due to the outbreak of the epidemic in Shanxi Taiyuan distribution center, The impact of the epidemic is greater than that of other peers (at present, the express operation in Taiyuan, Shanxi has basically returned to normal; it is worth noting that the recent epidemic in Yunda network in Changyang, Beijing is quite different from the previous epidemic in Taiyuan, Shanxi, and the scope of impact on the company is very limited); As the epidemic led to the rise of express operating costs and the fluctuation of regional structure of express business volume, the single ticket price also fluctuated in April, with a year-on-year increase.
(3) Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) : in April, the business volume decreased by 4.8% year-on-year, and the single ticket price increased by 16.4% year-on-year. Affected by the sealing and control management of the epidemic situation in Shanghai and other cities, the growth rate of the company's business volume decreased significantly in April; As the epidemic led to the rise of express operating costs and the fluctuation of regional structure of express business volume, the single ticket price also fluctuated, with a year-on-year increase.
(4) Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) : in April, the business volume decreased by 7.7% year-on-year, and the single ticket price increased by 20.7% year-on-year. Affected by the sealing and control management of the epidemic situation in Shanghai and other cities, the growth rate of the company's business volume decreased significantly in April; As the epidemic led to the rise of express operating costs and the fluctuation of regional structure of express business volume, the single ticket price also fluctuated, with a year-on-year increase.
Investment suggestions:
The impact of the epidemic is one-off, and the demand for short-term express delivery is more restrained than disappeared. We believe that after the recovery of the national epidemic, the demand for express delivery is expected to rebound. Since the beginning of May, the national express logistics supply chain has been gradually restored. During the "May Day" holiday (April 30-may 4), the national express industry has operated smoothly, receiving 1.34 billion express packages, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, and delivering 1.47 billion express packages, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%; In the middle of May, the daily average of express collection and delivery business volume in Shanghai, which was most seriously affected by the epidemic, reached more than 1 million orders, returning to one sixth of the normal level; At present, the epidemic situation in Beijing has little impact on express operation, and the average daily business volume of mainstream express companies is close to the same period last year. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation and profits of the company will continue to rise significantly this year, the company is expected to achieve significant profit recovery under the influence of the epidemic situation; For SF, the company's overall capacity is sufficient and will be able to meet the needs of business development for a long time in the future. We expect that in 2022, the company's capital expenditure will begin to decline and the asset utilization rate will be improved. The company will continue to enjoy the cost optimization benefits brought by the four networks financing and refined operation, and the performance in 2022 is expected to be significantly repaired. Continue to recommend Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) and S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) .
Risk tips:
The development of the epidemic is uncertain, the demand of e-commerce is lower than expected, and the industry competition is intensified.
