Industry events
The National Bureau of statistics released the data of social zero from January to April 2022. The total amount of social zero in China from January to April was 138142 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 0.2%; Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles was 124807 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 0.8%.
The impact of the epidemic intensified, with social zero in April and – 11.1% year-on-year
In April 2022, the total amount of social zero in China was 2948.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 11.1%; Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles was 2691.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 8.4%. Geographically, the decline in urban consumption was greater than that in rural areas. In April, the retail sales of urban and rural consumer goods decreased by 11.3% and 9.8% respectively year-on-year; In terms of regions, the retail sales of consumer goods of units above Designated Size in the Yangtze River Delta and Northeast China, which were seriously impacted by the epidemic, decreased by more than 30% year-on-year; In terms of classification, offline service consumption represented by accommodation and catering was significantly impacted. In April, commodity retail was – 9.7% year-on-year and catering revenue was – 22.7% year-on-year. On the whole, the repeated epidemic has a great impact on social consumption. Due to the impact of the epidemic in April and spread in many core cities, the decline of social zero is more obvious.
The performance of grain, oil, food and other essential products continued to be strong, and the optional categories fell sharply due to the impact of the epidemic
Among the required consumer goods, in April, the retail sales of grain, oil and food, Chinese and Western medicines and beverages above the quota increased by + 10% / + 7.9% / + 6.0% respectively year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of – 2.5% / – 4.0% / – 6.6%, showing a steady, medium and slight decline trend. Under the severe impact of the epidemic, they still showed strong performance and strong demand toughness; Optional consumer goods declined significantly as a whole, including cosmetics, clothing, shoes and hats, gold, silver and jewelry, which increased by – 22.3% / – 22.8% / – 26.7% year-on-year and – 16.0% / – 10.1% / – 8.8% month on month respectively, with a large decline in growth rate.
Online retail turned negative in a single month, and the overall penetration continued to improve
In terms of online channels, the national online retail sales from January to April 2022 was 3869.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 3.3%, a decrease of 3.3 PCTs compared with the growth rate from January to March, of which the online retail sales of physical goods was 3288.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 5.2%, a decrease of 3.6 PCTs compared with the growth rate from January to March, accounting for 23.8% of the total social retail sales. In April, the online retail volume of physical goods in a single month was 763 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 1.0% and a month-on-month increase of – 3.7%, mainly because the sealing and control of epidemic diseases in many places affected the normal operation of logistics.
In terms of offline channels, from January to April 2022, the retail sales of supermarkets, convenience stores, department stores, specialty stores and specialty stores were + 3.6% / + 6.8% / – 8.2% / + 2.5% / – 5.9% year-on-year, an increase of + 0.4pcts / – 3.3pcts / – 4.9pcts / – 4.1pcts / – 6.9pcts respectively compared with the growth rate from January to March, and the supermarket format showed high growth toughness. From January to April 2022, the retail sales of warehouse member stores and grocery stores were + 8.5% / + 2.4% year-on-year respectively. The epidemic affected the activity radius of residents in some areas, and the self-service consumption and community retail with high convenience still maintained growth.
Investment advice
Taking into account the potential recovery elasticity, supply pattern change and leading growth, recommendations: 1) the main line of post epidemic recovery: comprehensive recovery elasticity and supply side certainty. Hotels are the preferred configuration sector, and leading sectors Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Huazhu group, Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) ; The catering sector pays attention to brand potential and efficient operation, and recommends jiumaojiu. 2) Main line of steady income: recommend tax-free leader China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , whose scale, supply chain and channel advantages are continuously consolidated in the epidemic, and whose share price is at the bottom; The beauty sector comprehensively considers products, brands and channel capabilities, and recommends paying attention to Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) .
Risk tip: the epidemic situation is disturbed repeatedly, the consumption recovery is less than expected, and the industry competition is intensified.
