\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 518 Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) )
Investment logic
With the expansion of power battery industry for 21 years, the company's growth accelerates, and the subsequent net interest rate is expected to pick up:
Orders: in 2021, the company signed new orders of 3.599 billion yuan (including tax), a year-on-year increase of 138.66%, of which 3.07 billion yuan came from the power battery industry, which provided a guarantee for the subsequent performance growth of the company.
Revenue: in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 1.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.44%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 92 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 37.39%, and the performance growth accelerated.
Profit margin: the gross profit margin and net profit margin of the company in 2021 were 37.04% and 6.58% respectively. In order to cope with the strong market demand, the company actively expanded production capacity and personnel, and the expense side dragged down the profit performance. Considering that the company has sufficient orders on hand and the scale effect of high income growth, the net profit margin is expected to increase.
Laser welding is a key process for power battery manufacturing, and the demand is expected to continue to increase: laser welding is currently used in many processes such as power battery pole column, adapter, sealing nail and explosion-proof valve welding. The 4680 full pole lug design increases the difficulty and welding quantity of pole lug welding, or further improves the demand for laser welding equipment. We estimate that the global market scale of power battery laser welding equipment will be 6.58 billion yuan in 2021, and it is expected that the market scale will reach 9.07 billion yuan in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 37%.
The company's focus on laser welding has a high market share, and new orders are expected to increase further: from 2018 to 2021, the company's power battery industry achieved a total revenue of 3.123 billion yuan. According to our estimated global market space, the company's cumulative market share is about 25%, which is in a leading position in the industry. The main competitors of the company are Han'S Laser Technology Industry Group Co.Ltd(002008) , Shenzhen Hymson Laser Intelligent Equipments Co.Ltd(688559) and other laser processing equipment suppliers. We believe that the company has laid out the laser welding field of power battery earlier and focused on laser welding. It has a deeper accumulation of technology and process of laser welding non-standard equipment and has a relatively good potential. With the capacity expansion of power battery industry, new orders are expected to maintain growth. In 2021, the company's power battery industry signed new orders of 3.07 billion yuan. We expect that the company's power battery industry is expected to sign new orders of 4.3 billion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 40%.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
From 2022 to 2024, the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 324 / 520 / 742 million respectively, corresponding to the current PE of 24x / 15x / 10x respectively. Considering the growth space of power battery laser welding equipment and the high market share of the company, the subsequent newly signed orders are expected to maintain growth and the company's performance is expected to achieve high growth. Referring to the valuation of comparable companies, the company is given a "buy" rating with 30 times PE in 2022 and a target price of 32.46 yuan in the next 6-12 months.
Risk
The production expansion of power battery enterprises was less than expected, the inventory balance was large, and the ban on restricted shares was lifted.
