\u3000\u30 Beijing Telesound Electronics Co.Ltd(003004) 28 Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co.Ltd(300428) )
Event: the company and Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) signed the strategic cooperation framework agreement, and the two sides reached a cooperation agreement on the development of heat-free materials and product introduction of large-scale integrated aluminum castings.
Comments:
Build a strong alliance between China and Wencan to create an integrated industrial chain layout. (1) Wencan's advantages: integrated die casting manufacturing is difficult. Materials, equipment, molds and processes are the core technology. Vacuum die casting machine without heat treatment is required in production, and the die force is more than 3000t. Wencan has 6000t, 9000t and other die-casting machines, and has successively supplied aluminum alloy body structural parts for Mercedes Benz, Tesla, Weilai, Xiaopeng, GAC aion and so on. It has the first mover advantage in aluminum alloy die-casting body structural parts. (2) Lizhong advantage: heat-free alloy is the basic material of integrated die-casting. In Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co.Ltd(300428) 2016, the research and development of heat-free alloy project was initiated. In 2020, it applied for and successively obtained the national invention patent certificate, breaking the product monopoly and technical blockade of Alcoa and Rhine in this field. It is the only company applying for patent in China.
Cost reduction and weight reduction of integrated die casting is the general trend in the future. At present, it is accelerating the penetration. With the increasing integration of new energy vehicles, body integration will also become a trend. In 2020, Tesla will use the integrated die-casting bottom sector in modely, which can effectively reduce the total weight of the body by 10%. In 2022, Tesla's modely produced in Austin factory adopted integrated die-casting technology, reducing more than 1600 solder joints and reducing production costs. China's Weilai and Xiaopeng have also begun to layout one after another. Weilai has successfully developed heat-free materials that can be used to manufacture large die-casting parts and will be applied to the second generation platform models of Weilai. Xiaopeng Wuhan industrial base will also build an integrated die-casting process workshop.
With the increase of single vehicle consumption and the rapid increase of new energy, the market scale of heat-free alloy is expected to be 12.5 million tons in 2030, and the market space is huge. (1) The consumption of single cars is increasing. At present, the consumption of single vehicle is 150160kg. With the increasing integration level, it can be increased to 500kg. If the technology can make further breakthroughs, in theory, the whole vehicle can use heat-free aluminum alloy, and the consumption of single vehicle can reach 700800kg. (2) The number of complete vehicles is increasing. With the rapid development of new energy vehicles, Tesla and velai are mainly in use. In the future, integrated die casting will be used for new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles. Assuming that the penetration rate of integrated die casting will be 20% in 2025, the consumption of single vehicle will be 300kg, and the global sales volume of new energy vehicles will be 30 million, the market scale of integrated die casting heat-free alloy is expected to be 1.8 million tons. Assuming that the penetration rate increases to 50% in 2030, the consumption of single vehicle is 500kg, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is 50 million, and the market scale is expected to be 12.5 million tons.
There is still a strong space for exclusive cooperation with the whole vehicle factory. Although the agreement is signed for exclusive supply, there are supplementary provisions: (1) except for the supporting customers before the agreement between the two parties takes effect, (2) except for the production and use of the automobile main engine plant (including the foundry invested in the automobile main engine plant system), (3) those jointly recognized and confirmed by both parties can also be excluded Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co.Ltd(300428) itself directly provides product supporting services of aluminum alloy wheels for many new energy vehicle enterprises such as Weilai, ideal and Xiaopeng. At the same time, the company's cast aluminum alloy materials are also the secondary suppliers of Weilai, Xiaopeng and other new car manufacturers. The exclusive agreement does not limit these companies. As the leader of heat-free materials in China, there is still room for cooperation between Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co.Ltd(300428) and vehicle enterprises.
Maintain the "buy" rating, and the target price is 48.4 yuan. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022, 2023 and 2024 will be RMB 6.36/10.01/1.327 billion respectively, corresponding to 17.22/10.93/8.24 times of PE, 30 times of PE in the next 12 months, corresponding to the market value of RMB 30 billion and the target price of RMB 48.6, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: epidemic risk, the project implementation progress is less than expected, and the demand for new energy is less than expected.
