\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 807 Jiangsu Jiangyin Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002807) )
Investment advice
Summary of investment logic
Historically, banks with sustained and rapid improvement in provision coverage have soared.
The long-term downward inflection point of China’s manufacturing non-performing rate has appeared in 2019. Jiangyin is the first county in manufacturing industry. In Jiangsu Jiangyin Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002807) history, there was a period when manufacturing loans accounted for 3 / 4.
The proportion of personal loans and wholesale and retail loans increased, and the growth rate of manufacturing loans hit the bottom and rebounded. From 2020 to 2021, the average annual growth rate of manufacturing loans was 53.6%. The improvement of business structure widened the interest margin against the trend.
Listed banks have the lowest NPL generation rate and the largest decline in NPL rate.
The proportion of “(current impairment loss – newly generated non-performing assets in the current period) / total assets” is the largest among listed banks, indicating that Jiangsu Jiangyin Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002807) real ROA is underestimated the most.
Jiangsu Jiangyin Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002807) there are the youngest management of listed banks, the only female president of listed banks, and the shareholders are private enterprises.
Shenzhen Stock connect continued to increase its holdings. There were only four active product positions in 2022q1, with a total position of 4.15 million yuan.
Target price:
We predict that from 2022 to 2024, EPS will be 0.71, 0.87 and 1.05 yuan respectively, and the growth rate of net profit attributable to parent company will be 21.40%, 21.55% and 21.40% respectively. The target price is 6.73 yuan according to DDM method and 6.36 yuan according to pb-roe method. Considering that DDM can better reflect the long-term value of the company, the final reasonable value is 6.73 yuan, which corresponds to 9.5 times of PE in 22 years and 1.06 times of Pb in 22 years, which is 6.24 times of PE in 22 years and 0.68 times of Pb in 22 years. For the first time, it is rated “better than the big market”.
Risk tips
Focus on whether the current round of growth will be stable or not; The impact of the epidemic on the manufacturing supply chain.
