\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 192 Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) )
Focus on the development of lithium industry chain. The company entered the lithium industry through M & A in 2009 and experienced many transformations. At present, Rongda lithium, a wholly-owned subsidiary, is engaged in lithium mining and beneficiation business; Share 40% of Chengdu Rongjie lithium industry and enjoy investment income; Holding 80% of changhehua lithium, engaged in lithium salt processing business; Holding 55% of Dongguan Derui, engaged in lithium battery equipment business. Benefiting from the rise of lithium price, the net profit attributable to the parent company of 22q1 increased by 13996% and the profit improved significantly.
The supply and demand of lithium were in tight balance throughout the year, and the independent and controllable logic was fermented again. The tight balance between supply and demand in 22 years is determined. It is predicted that China’s supply will be 533000 tons, the demand will be 559000 tons, the gap will be 26000 tons, and the annual average price will be 45 Tianma Microelectronics Co.Ltd(000050) 0000 yuan / ton. China’s independent and controllable logic continues to ferment, and Sichuan’s mineral resources are endowed with excellent resources. Policies such as the draft of the general plan of mineral resources in Ganzi Prefecture (20212025) promote the accelerated development of Sichuan’s mineral resources.
Lithium ore mining and beneficiation: sitting on the high-quality resources of methyl card, the beneficiation project needs to be approved urgently. Rongda lithium has the mining right of methyl card 134 vein, with a resource reserve of 28.995 million tons and an average grade of more than 1.42%. Rongda lithium was previously in a state of shutdown for 14-18 years due to factors such as blocked land acquisition for production expansion. After the resumption of production in June 19, the current annual production capacity is 450000 tons, which is converted into 70 Faw Jiefang Group Co.Ltd(000800) 00 tons of lithium concentrate. The company plans to expand the beneficiation capacity of 2.5 million tons / year in yuanyangba, converting about 470000 tons of lithium concentrate, and the construction period is one year. At present, after waiting for the approval of the environmental impact assessment of the superior planning, the company will officially report to the ecological environment bureau of Ganzi Prefecture, and strive to start the construction of the main project within this year.
Lithium salt processing: the 20000 ton capacity of Chengdu Rongjie lithium industry will be put into operation. Changhehua lithium and Byd Company Limited(002594) have reached cooperation. Chengdu Rongjie lithium industry’s phase I capacity of 20000 tons has entered the trial production stage, and 22q2 is expected to be officially put into operation. Its raw material concentrate mainly comes from the related party Rongda lithium industry, and 22q1 Rongjie lithium industry contributes 206 million yuan of investment income. Changhehua lithium currently has an annual production capacity of 4800 tons. 20 changhehua lithium supplies lithium salt products to the related party Byd Company Limited(002594) with a contract transaction volume of 180 million yuan in 21 years and is expected to reach 400 million yuan in 22 years.
Lithium battery equipment: Dongguan Derui and Byd Company Limited(002594) deep binding. In 2014, the company acquired Dongguan Derui and entered the field of lithium battery equipment. In 19 years, Dongguan Derui sold lithium battery equipment to the related party Byd Company Limited(002594) and the contract transaction volume in 19-21 years was 82 million yuan, 76 million yuan and 263 million yuan respectively. The transaction volume in 22 years is expected to be 600 million yuan.
Profit forecast & investment suggestions
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years will be 2.007 billion yuan, 3.012 billion yuan and 3.489 billion yuan respectively, EPS will be 7.73 yuan, 11.60 yuan and 13.44 yuan respectively, and PE will be 16 times, 11 times and 9 times respectively. Considering the scarcity of China’s Sichuan mineral resources + the significant increase of the company’s own mineral resources in 23-24 years, it is given 15 times PE in 23 years, with a market value of 45.2 billion yuan and a target price of 174.02 yuan / share. It is given a “buy” rating for the first time.
Risk tips
Downstream demand is lower than expected; External environmental risks of lithium mine; The production expansion progress is less than expected.
