\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 136 Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) )
Key investment points
As a representative of small and beautiful private leisure scenic spots, they have obvious advantages in operation efficiency. They focus on the Yangtze River Delta and have a one-stop leisure tourism destination of scenic spots + hotels + hot springs + water world. The company is the main operator of one-stop tourism destinations in the Yangtze River Delta. Its products cover a series of products such as scenic spots + hotels + hot springs + water world. From 2015 to 2019, the compound growth rate of revenue was 4.4%, while the compound growth rate of performance was 23%. The operation was efficient. In 2019, the revenue of scenic spots / hotels / hot springs / travel agencies accounted for 62.8% / 19.0% / 10.5% / 2.53% respectively. ① The business of the scenic spot does not rely on pure ticket revenue. Through the development and expansion of experience projects in the scenic spot, the secondary consumption and passenger unit price are increased. The proportion of secondary consumption in Nanshan Bamboo Sea Scenic Spot in 17h1 is as high as 67%. During the epidemic period, the expansion of product capacity in the scenic spot (the improvement of cableway transport capacity in 21 years) is expected to further improve the proportion of secondary consumption. ② The hotel business products are diversified, with prices ranging from 100 yuan economy to 1000 yuan luxury. The types range from parent-child to wild luxury to vacation. The products are highly popular. By the end of 21, the company has 684 guest rooms, which are distributed in the two scenic spots of landscape garden and Nanshan Bamboo Sea. Among them, the zhuxigu project, which has been opened for 20 years, can be full on many holidays in the first full year of operation, greatly reducing the climbing period. ③ Hot Spring + landscape garden enriches tourists' experience and weakens the influence of seasonal disturbance to a certain extent.
Deep cultivation in the Yangtze River Delta for 30 years, from zero Development & operation ability recognized and verified + existing natural endowment first mover advantage to build competitive strength.
1) continuous verification of development and operation ability from zero: Based on Shahe reservoir and natural bamboo forest, Shanshui Park & Nanshan bamboo sea is built from zero by the company. After years of development and operation, through the integration of surrounding resources and commercial formats, it has formed two North-South business layouts of "Shanshui Park + water world + Hotel" and "Nanshan bamboo sea + Yushui hot spring + Hotel", including a one-stop tourism mode of "eating, living, traveling, traveling, shopping and entertainment", The company's project development and operation capability has been fully verified.
2) scarcity of stock resource endowments and consolidation of Competitiveness: in the early stage, the company has a forward-looking choice of Shahe reservoir and natural bamboo forest. ① there are relevant idle supporting facilities near natural resources, which can be used by the company to build a holiday theme hotel, which is in line with the scenic spot and has resource advantages that the surrounding competitive products do not have. ② Yushui hot spring is about 1km away from Nanshan bamboo sea. It is located in Yili volcanic basin. It is a scarce active hot spring resource in the Yangtze River Delta. Even though there are many competing products around the Yangtze River Delta that mainly focus on peripheral leisure and vacation tourism, those with lake + bamboo sea + natural hot spring + wild luxury resort hotel are still very scarce, which lays a foundation for subsequent companies to build brand awareness nationwide.
During the epidemic period, cultivate internal skills, expand and upgrade the capacity, and the stock elasticity can be expected; In the medium term, the hotel product line is expected to be extended again. In the long term, it is expected to jointly build an animal kingdom with state-owned assets & the offsite replication of extension projects will bring additional growth curve.
1) expansion and upgrading of the company's internal skill cultivation stock projects during the epidemic period: in 20-21 years, zhuxigu (120 guest rooms), yushilan (14 rooms) and Yu Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) (81) hotels were added successively, with excellent product power and shortened climbing period (full rooms on some holidays in 21 years). Among them, zhuxigu hotel is positioned as a high-end hotel, which can contribute 500000 yuan of revenue in a single day in peak season. According to the company's announcement, it can contribute 83.22 million yuan of revenue in steady state, Look forward to normal performance in the future. At the same time, the company continues to enrich the content of stock projects, such as the improvement of cableway capacity in the scenic spot + cruise ship + building night economy, which is expected to drive the second consumer to improve its performance.
2) the elasticity can be expected, and the surrounding leisure tourism is expected to recover before the industry: the actual passenger flow before the epidemic of the company's stock projects is far from reaching the maximum carrying capacity (the maximum daily reception capacity of the scenic spot in 19 years is still less than 50% of the maximum carrying capacity); At the same time, the company is positioned as a one-stop destination for leisure and vacation, which is in line with the main line of tourism after the epidemic, and is expected to recover before the industry (e.g. during the May Day holiday of 21, Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) tourists / income recovered to 121.72% / 145.48% respectively in the same period of 19, and the recovery degree of the industry was only 103.2% / 77.0%).
3) the convertible bond fund-raising helps the hotel to expand again and build long-term increment based on the implementation of local projects: the company raised about 300 million yuan by issuing Tianmu convertible bonds, of which about 260 million yuan was used to build phase II of Nanshan Xiaozhai, with a construction cycle of about 2 years and 500 guest rooms. After the completion of the project, the hotel product line capacity (1184 rooms in total) is expected to double compared with 2019. In addition, the company issued an announcement in March 22 to jointly build the animal kingdom project with state-owned assets, with a construction cycle of 5 years. In the future, it does not rule out rebuilding a one-stop tourism destination equivalent to Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) scenic spot. 4) the medium and long-term dimension expects the implementation of extension projects to help the company grow: the company always adheres to the strategy of "consolidating base areas, deeply cultivating the Yangtze River Delta, focusing on Urban Agglomeration and professional development", and always has an extension growth plan, Through the company's ability and operation experience of building a one-stop destination from zero for 30 years + the help of the government platform, the company is expected to give priority to high-quality resources, and the company has the bottom support of expansion ability. At the same time, it can be seen from the high-quality resources of Shanshui Park + Nanshan bamboo sea that the company's prudent and forward-looking strategic consideration for project selection is expected to open up the growth space in the future.
Investment suggestion: as a representative of small and beautiful private enterprises, the company has higher operation efficiency than comparable companies; It does not rely on single natural resources and scenic spot tickets to generate income, and the stability performance is better. From the company's development experience in building a one-stop tourism destination with strong productivity from zero in the past 30 years, the company has the bottom support of remote expansion ability; Superimposed with government empowerment, the company is expected to give priority to the enjoyment of resources. We believe that the company has initially possessed the scarce growth attribute of the subject matter of natural scenic spots. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years will be 58 / 176 / 212 million yuan respectively, and the growth rate will be 13.5% / 202% / 20.4% respectively. The current price of the company corresponds to 23.5x PE in 23 years.
Risk tip: the impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations, the macroeconomic recovery was less than expected, the industry competition intensified, and the project construction was less than expected.
