\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 288 Agricultural Bank Of China Limited(601288) )
Core view
Steady growth in performance. In the first quarter of 2022, the operating revenue reached 205.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, and the growth rate decreased by 3.5 percentage points compared with last year’s annual report, mainly due to the volatility of investment income; Among them, the net interest income was 151 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%; In the first quarter, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 70.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.4%. The growth rate was lower than that of last year’s annual report, but slightly increased by 0.8 percentage points compared with the two-year average growth rate of last year’s annual report. The annualized roa0 in the first quarter of 202294%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.01 percentage points; The first quarter’s annualized weighted average roe13 5%, down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year.
The asset growth rate was slightly lower than the industry average, and the net interest margin decreased slightly. The growth rate of the industry’s total assets was slightly lower than that of 2022.2 trillion yuan at the end of the first quarter. Among them, deposits increased by 7.6% year-on-year to 23.5 trillion yuan, and loans increased by 8.2% year-on-year to 17.4 trillion yuan. At the end of the first quarter, the core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 11.36%, the tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 13.58%, and the capital adequacy ratio was 17.18%, all meeting the regulatory requirements. The average daily net interest margin of the company in the first quarter was 2.09%, down 3bps from the fourth quarter of last year. However, under the influence of the base factor, the growth rate of the company’s net interest income rebounded slightly compared with last year’s annual report and the fourth quarter of last year.
The net income from handling charges increased slightly. In the first quarter of 2022, the net fee income increased by 4.3% year-on-year to 31.7 billion yuan, down 3.5 percentage points from last year’s annual report.
The cost income ratio remained stable. In the first quarter of 2022, the business and management fee was 44.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, the cost income ratio was 21.7%, a slight decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, and remained basically stable.
Asset quality improved and provision coverage picked up. According to the five level classification of loan quality, the company’s non-performing loan balance at the end of the first quarter of 2022 was 254.4 billion yuan, an increase of 8.7 billion yuan over the end of the previous year, and the non-performing loan ratio was 1.41%, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points over the end of the previous year. The provision coverage rate at the end of the first quarter was 308%, an increase of 8 percentage points over the beginning of the year.
Investment suggestion: the overall performance of the company in the first quarter has little change compared with the annual report. We maintain the profit forecast unchanged. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 2624 / 2785 / 295.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.8 / 6.1 / 6.2%; Diluted EPS is 80.75/0.85; The current share price corresponds to PE of 4.1/3.8/3.6x and Pb of 0.48/0.44/0.40x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the weakening macroeconomic situation may have an adverse impact on the quality of bank assets.
