\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 318 Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) )
Core view
The company released the 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 22 years, with a revenue of 5.97 billion yuan in 21 years, yoy + 20.6%; Net profit attributable to parent company: 790 million yuan, yoy + 2.9%, weighted roe 16.5% 3%, the proposed dividend per share is 0.4 yuan, and the dividend rate is as high as 48%. 22q1 revenue 1.32 billion yuan, yoy + 2.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 190 million yuan, yoy + 36.5%.
In the 21st year, Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) contributed 80 million yuan of investment income, and the net profit after excluding was yoy-5%. In 21 years, the income from Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) equity investment reached 78.69 million yuan, yoy + 296%. After elimination, the net profit of the company reached 715 million yuan, yoy-4.8%. In 2012, Yongxing contributed about 70 million yuan to the investment income of Q1, and the net profit of Q1 reached 120 million yuan, yoy-6.6%.
The annual sales volume reached 118000 tons, with a gross profit of yoy-2%. In 21 years, the sales volume of pipes was yoy + 8.8%, the sales volume of seamless pipes and welded pipes were 56000 and 63000 tons respectively, and the gross profit per ton was 15000 and 6000 yuan / ton respectively, yoy + 19% and – 35%. The obvious decline in the gross profit per ton of welded pipes was affected by the high base of large orders in 20 years and the cancellation of export tax rebate in May 21.
The revenue of high-end products accounted for 19%, and the R & D expenses yoy + 33.2%. The proportion of revenue from high-end products in 21 years increased by 3PCT compared with that in 20 years. During 21 years, two high-end projects were successively completed and put into operation, and the proportion of high-end products will continue to increase. In 21 years, the R & D investment reached 260 million yuan, and the R & D expense rate reached 4.4%. The R & D investment continued to increase.
The production capacity of the alloy company is continuously released, with revenue of yoy + 109%. The 21-year revenue of the alloy company reached 496 million yuan, realizing a net profit of 23.31 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 80%. Alloy company is an important link for the company to open up upstream raw materials and develop high-end materials, which will lay a solid foundation for the long-term development of high-end of the company.
After the change of the general manager, Mr. Li Zhengzhou continued to serve as the chairman of the company. In order to better grasp the long-term goal of the company’s overall strategic development, the general manager will be changed from Mr. Li Zhengzhou to Mr. Wang Changcheng. Mr. Wang Changcheng has served in the company for many years and once served as the general manager of seamless management division, director and executive deputy general manager of the company.
The target sales volume of pipes in 22 years is 133400 tons, and the gross profit per ton is expected to hit the bottom and rebound. The continued high international oil price will drive the demand for oil and gas exploitation and front-end gathering and transmission pipes. Nuclear power also ushers in a historic development opportunity under the “double carbon”, and the company’s high-end process may accelerate accordingly. Moreover, the impact of the cancellation of export tax rebate policy is gradually fading, and overseas profits are expected to improve.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
As Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) equity investment income exceeded expectations, we adjusted the company’s EPS from 2022 to 2024 to 1.29, 1.41 and 1.50 yuan (the original 20222023 was 0.92 yuan and 1.06 yuan). We use DCF method for valuation, and the target price is 21.06 yuan.
Risk tips
The progress of raised investment projects is less than the expected risk, the product upgrading is less than the expected risk, the macroeconomic growth rate slows down, and the risk of repeated global epidemics.
