\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 058 Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) )
Core view
The performance in the first quarter of 2022 improved month on month and is expected to continue to repair. In the first quarter of 2022, the company realized an operating revenue of 4.863 billion yuan, a month on month increase of + 2.31%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 322 million yuan, a month on month increase of + 3.54%. The market was worried that the shortage of shipping and the rise of raw material prices may have a certain negative impact on the performance, but the performance of the company is better than our expectations. The suppression factors of fundamentals are expected to be gradually relieved in the future, driving the continuous repair of the company's performance.
The tense situation of maritime transportation has eased, and the inflection point has emerged. Since March this year, the overall ocean freight has shown a relatively obvious downward inflection point, indicating that the tension of ocean freight has eased. It can also be seen from the company's sales volume, which reached 11 million tires in the first quarter, a month on month increase of + 8.34%. However, at present, the overall shipping price is still high. We judge that the real improvement of shipping tension may occur in the second half of the year.
The price of raw materials stabilizes and needs to fall. In terms of raw materials, the market had expected that the high oil price might drive up the price of some raw materials and lower the gross profit margin in 22 years, but from the result, the company's 22q1 gross profit margin reached 17.02%, an increase of about 2pct month on month, which was better than expected. In terms of the current situation of raw materials, there is no significant price rise of natural rubber and synthetic rubber, and tire enterprises will also adopt the long-term cooperation mode to stabilize the cost in the procurement process. Therefore, we believe that raw materials are expected to stabilize and fall in 22 years, driving the profit level of tire enterprises to repair gradually.
New production capacity and liquid gold tire capacity can be expected. In terms of production capacity, the new production capacity of the company's factories in Vietnam, Shenyang and Weifang will continue to be large this year, and the factory in Cambodia will also be the largest growth point this year. In terms of products, liquid golden tire is a highlight of the company's products, which has successfully solved the "devil's triangle" problem that has plagued the industry for many years. We believe that with the continuous promotion of liquid golden tire, its advantages will be gradually accepted by the market, driving the improvement of the company's profitability and industry status.
Risk warning: the mitigation of maritime transportation is not as expected; Rising prices of raw materials; The launch of new production capacity did not meet expectations; The market promotion of liquid gold tire did not meet expectations, etc.
Investment suggestion: maintain the forecast of net profit attributable to parent company from 2022 to 2024 as 1.8/3/3.2 billion yuan, EPS = 0.59/0.96/1.06 yuan, PE = 16 / 10 / 9x corresponding to the current stock price, and maintain the "buy" rating.
