Key investment points
Overall: in April, the original premium income of life insurance of listed insurance enterprises was + 0.28% year-on-year, and that of property insurance was + 2.00% year-on-year. In April, the original premium income of life insurance business of listed insurance enterprises (TPL + Ping An Life + Guoshou + Xinhua + Taiping Life + PICC Life) totaled 100.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 0.28%; The original premium income of property insurance business (PICC + Ping An Property + Taiping property + Taiping property) totaled 71.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 2.00%. From January to April: the original premium income of life insurance business (CPIC + Ping An Life + Guoshou + Xinhua + Taiping Life + PICC Life) of listed insurance enterprises accumulated 858.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 0.05%, and the original premium income of property insurance business (PICC + Ping An + PICC + Taiping) accumulated 352.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9.70%.
TPL + 1.24 billion yuan, the highest year-on-year increase of TPL + 1.28 billion yuan (year-on-year increase of 12.08 billion yuan), and Ping An Life Insurance + 1.28 billion yuan (year-on-year increase of 12.08 billion yuan, year-on-year increase of 12.8 billion yuan, year-on-year increase of 12.08 billion yuan, year-on-year increase of 11.82%). January April: TPL 111.6 billion yuan (YoY + 3.96%), Ping An Life 196.4 billion yuan (YoY – 2.42%), China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) 343.5 billion yuan (YoY – 2.69%), New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) 76.5 billion yuan (YoY + 3.83%), TPL 67.6 billion yuan (YoY – 2.30%), PICC Life 63.2 billion yuan (YoY + 17.18%).
Property insurance: the highest year-on-year increase of Taiping property insurance + 4.67% in April, and the highest year-on-year increase of Taiping property insurance + 5.34% from January to April. April: PICC Property Insurance 34.7 billion yuan (year-on-year + 2.67%), Ping An Property Insurance 21.9 billion yuan (year-on-year + 2.21%), Taiping property insurance 12.4 billion yuan (year-on-year – 0.64%), Taiping property insurance 2.2 billion yuan (year-on-year + 4.67%). From January to April: PICC Property Insurance 186.9 billion yuan (year-on-year + 10.33%), Ping An Property Insurance 94.9 billion yuan (year-on-year + 8.35%), CPIC property insurance 61.7 billion yuan (year-on-year + 10.60%), and Taiping property insurance 9.3 billion yuan (year-on-year + 5.34%).
The monthly premium of life insurance maintained a small growth, mainly driven by CPIC and Xinhua, which played a great role in stabilizing the scale through bancassurance channels; The monthly premium decline of Ping An Life Insurance continued to narrow. The monthly premium increase of property insurance decreased significantly. We believe that the reasons for the weakness of life insurance and property insurance are as follows: 1) the short-term impact of the epidemic. On the one hand, the decline of residents’ consumption will lead to the reduction of terminal demand. On the other hand, the spread of the epidemic makes it difficult for life insurance and property insurance to develop. According to the 2021 annual report of listed insurance companies, Ping An, TPL and TPC accounted for 5.8%, 3.4% and 7.7% of the original premium income in Shanghai. The Shanghai epidemic has a great impact on their premium growth; 2) The loss of agents may continue, and the monthly premium of life insurance of insurance enterprises with relatively firm channel reform of Guoshou and ping an increased negatively.
Investment suggestion: at present, the liability side and investment side of listed insurance enterprises are under pressure. We remind the layout opportunities on the left again. As of May 17, the valuations of Ping An, CPIC, Guoshou and Xinhua P / EV were 0.52x, 0.36x, 0.56x and 0.39x respectively, all at historical lows. Ping An and CPIC are recommended in turn based on the strength of insurance enterprise reform, premium growth performance and valuation level.
Risk tips: continuous loss of agents, spread of epidemic beyond expectations, fluctuation of capital market, decline of long-term interest rate, etc
