Cost and demand fluctuate periodically. What kind of enterprise can continue to grow steadily through the cycle? On the one hand, affected by the price fluctuation of upstream bulk raw and auxiliary materials, food and beverage enterprises test their supply chain control ability and cost transfer ability (pricing power); On the other hand, affected by the fluctuation of China's economic environment and revenue and expenditure factors, the consumption demand of end B, end C and end g also presents a certain periodicity. Most enterprises are under pressure in the period of rising cost and shrinking demand. How can they quickly get out of the bottom of the cycle and even cross the cycle? In the history of resumption, we can see that enterprises such as Maotai, Haitian and Yili can take the lead in breaking through the encirclement at the bottom of the cycle and realize the double growth of income and profit. There are two reasons behind it: first, pricing power, which cuts into the market segments with product innovation to create or meet new consumer demand, so as to control the pricing power of the industry / category; The second is scale, which hedges / controls cost pressure on a large scale, and the premise of scale is the synergy between capacity utilization and brand channel capability.
How to price to break the "inner volume" of the industry with linear price competition? Most of us are willing to realize the "low cost" of the brand, and most of us are willing to pay attention to the "low cost" of the brand, such as the "low cost" of the brand, while most of us are willing to pay attention to the "high cost" of the brand, such as the "high cost" of the brand. Of course, this is essentially determined by the dual value of the commodity itself, namely "physical value" and "spiritual value". We believe that physical value focuses more on basic functions, such as taste and taste, to meet the needs of belly wrapping, thirst quenching and alcohol, while spiritual attributes appeal to the value recognition of culture, emotion, IP and sense of mission, which has the utility premium to meet the needs of consumers in specific scenes, Therefore, we regard the premium ability of consumer goods as the classification and ranking of necessities ＜ addictions ＜ social goods ＜ belief goods, that is, the price of products that meet the basic daily needs of residents is mainly driven by inflation (CPI), while high-end products first meet the spiritual pursuit, multi-purpose scenario pricing, and the shopping habits and strong purchasing ability of the new generation will also drive the innovative development of the industry. From 2011 to 2021, the income of urban residents increased by 117.39%, Some enterprises compete linearly with the price of a single product through differentiation. For example, beer can meet the personalized needs by fine brewing, white beer, alcohol free and other categories, driving the continuous improvement of profits; Leisure food has changed from selection to taste innovation, and built a second growth point.
Dismantle the cost structure of the molecular industry, and the necessity production enterprises can also realize large-scale advantages through brand and channel coordination, so as to build cost barriers with the improvement of capacity utilization. Subject to its own positioning, the direct price increase ability of mandatory products is relatively weak, but its demand is high-frequency and the total scale is huge. Advantageous enterprises build barriers by virtue of their advantages in production, marketing, R & D and other aspects, and improve ASP by means of specification adjustment. The production cost of instant food (T19%), instant noodle (0026%), instant noodle (14%), instant noodle (0029%), wheat flour (0026%), instant noodle (0026%) and other sensitive materials (14%), wheat flour (0026%), wheat flour (0026%), wheat flour (0026%), wheat flour (0026%), wheat flour (0026%) and other sensitive materials (14%) Envelope 9%, etc.
Investment suggestion: the fluctuation of cost and demand cycle does not affect the long-term growth logic of the industry. Three main lines are recommended:
\u3000\u30001. Buying pricing power: for companies that have pricing power or the ability to continuously raise prices in the segmentation scenarios / categories, Baijiu with strong social attributes is still the preferred configuration; Under the upgrading of consumption, the large volume of high-end products in beer, dairy products and other industries has led to the improvement of product structure. It is recommended that Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) , Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) .
\u3000\u30002. Buying leading companies with large-scale advantages: under the scale effect, with higher operation efficiency, the profitability of advantageous enterprises will be better than the industry average level and the cost is relatively controllable. It is recommended to Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Sanquan Food Co.Ltd(002216) , Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.Ltd(603317) , Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) .
\u3000\u30003. Investment scenario and cost margin to improve industrial enterprises: by splitting the cost side of main sub industries, we measured the sensitivity of main raw materials and found that the price margin of some raw materials has improved, which is expected to bring about the improvement of phased financial indicators. We can focus on pork and green vegetable head, and recommend Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) .
Risk tip: the price rise of raw materials exceeds expectations, the recovery of market demand is less than expected, the industry competition intensifies, and food safety problems.
