Key points:
The year-on-year decline in sales continued to expand, and there was great pressure on capital
From January to April 2022, the sales area of commercial housing in China was - 20.9% year-on-year, with a decrease of 7.1 percentage points compared with that from January to March; The sales amount of commercial housing was - 29.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 6.8 percentage points compared with that from January to March. From a single month in April, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 39% year-on-year, with a decline of 21 percentage points. In April, the sales side declined significantly, and the stimulus policy has not yet achieved good results. The main reasons include that the epidemic has repeatedly affected the sales recovery, and the demand for house purchase is still weak under the background of weak economy.
In terms of capital, residential housing loans decreased by 60.5 billion in April (a year-on-year decrease of 402.2 billion), a significant decline; From the source of development funds, the funds in place of real estate development enterprises decreased by 23.6% year-on-year from January to April, including 53% year-on-year decrease in deposits and advance receipts, 42% year-on-year decrease in personal mortgage loans, which was significantly larger than that from January to March, and the funds of real estate enterprises were still tight.
The year-on-year decline in land acquisition, construction and completion expanded, and investment continued to weaken
From January to April 2022, the completed investment in real estate development was - 2.7% year-on-year, the first time in recent two years; In April, the single month fell by 10% year-on-year, and the decline expanded by 7.7 percentage points. From January to April, the newly started area of houses decreased by 26.3% year-on-year, the completed area of houses decreased by 11.9% year-on-year, and the construction area of houses was flat year-on-year. Among them, the year-on-year decline of newly started and completed areas expanded by 8.8 and 0.4 percentage points respectively, and the growth rate of construction area slowed down by 1 percentage point. From January to April, the land purchase area decreased by 46.5% year-on-year, and the land transaction price decreased by 20.6% year-on-year, expanding by 4.7 and 3.7 percentage points respectively.
The auction rate has risen, and the heat of the land market is still low
In April 2022, the land supply and transaction planning construction area of 100 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 51% and 47% year-on-year respectively; Among them, the supply of residential land and transaction construction area decreased by 79% and 66% year-on-year respectively. In April, the land transaction premium rate was 4.6%, up 0.8pct month on month, still at a low level; The land auction rate was 38%, up 20 percentage points from March.
Lower the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate, and the policy releases a positive signal
On May 15, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a notice: for resident families who buy ordinary self owned houses with loans, the lower limit of the interest rate of commercial individual housing loans for the first set of houses shall be adjusted to not less than the market quotation interest rate of loans for the corresponding period by 20 basis points, and the lower limit of the interest rate policy of commercial individual housing loans for the second set of houses shall be implemented in accordance with the current provisions. After this adjustment, the lower limit of the first house loan interest rate calculated according to the current five-year LPR will be reduced to 4.4%, which is conducive to guiding all localities to continue to reduce the mortgage interest rate, increase support for potential just needed customers, and release the positive signal of maintaining the stability of the real estate market. At the same time, as some cities have relaxed the identification standard of the first house, the reduction of the first house interest rate is also supporting the reasonable demand for improvement.
Investment advice
In April, the decline in real estate sales, land acquisition and new construction expanded, development investment continued to weaken, and the industry fundamentals were still in the bottom stage. Under the policy of stabilizing the purchase and sale of real estate, it is expected to continue to reduce the lower limit of the policy of limiting the purchase and sale of real estate, especially due to the superposition of the loose policy of limiting the purchase and sale of real estate in the near future. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading real estate enterprises with low credit risk. Maintain the "overweight" rating of the industry.
Risk tips
Control policy uncertainty risk; Continuous downside risk of market sales.
