Core view
Macro: the social finance data fell sharply in April, and the differentiated housing loan policy guaranteed the just needed house purchase. According to the data of the central bank, the increment of social financing scale in April was 910.2 billion yuan, the former value was 4.65 trillion yuan, 946.8 billion yuan less than the same period last year. On May 15, the people’s Bank of China reduced the lower limit of commercial loan interest rate for personal first housing by 20 basis points. On this basis, all localities “implemented policies according to the city” and independently determined the lower limit of housing loan interest rate.
Steel: the national development and reform commission checks the crude steel output base and will continue to reduce it in 2022. This week, the output of rebar increased slightly by 0.61% month on month, and the consumption increased significantly by 4.49% month on month. The resumption of production of steel enterprises continued this week. According to Mysteel data, the capacity utilization rate of thread steel in the process of this week was 74.6%, with a slight increase of 1.11pct month on month. The national development and Reform Commission said that it would continue to reduce the national crude steel output in 2022 to promote the high-quality development of the iron and steel industry.
New energy metals: in mid April, the output of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile decreased by 33.86% month on month and increased by 44.33% year on year. In terms of lithium, the price of 56.5% domestic lithium hydroxide this week was 467500 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 0.32% month on month; The price of domestic 99.5% battery grade lithium carbonate was 461500 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month. This week, the month on month ratio of MB standard cobalt decreased slightly, and the month on month ratio of Co3O4 decreased significantly. In terms of nickel, the spot settlement price of LME nickel this week was US $27699 / ton, down 8.61% month on month.
Industrial metals: the EU plans to impose carbon tariffs, and China’s aluminum export advantage may be weakened. This week, the TC / RC of copper smelters decreased significantly, the global refined copper output and primary refined copper output increased significantly in January, and the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level of 92% in March, with a significant increase of 1.61pct; In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory increased significantly month on month and LME aluminum inventory decreased significantly month on month; In terms of price, the current price of LME copper decreased significantly by 5.48% month on month, and the current price of LME aluminum increased slightly by 0.99% month on month; In terms of profits, the profits of electrolytic aluminum in Xinjiang, Yunnan, Shandong and Inner Mongolia decreased month on month this week.
Kim: the high inflation rate in the United States raised concerns about the acceleration of interest rate hikes, and the price of gold accelerated downward. This week, Comex gold price decreased significantly by 3.01% month on month, and the number of non-commercial net long positions in gold decreased significantly by 8.65% month on month; This week, the yield of us 10-year Treasury bond was 2.84%, down slightly by 0.28pct month on month
Investment proposal and investment object
Steel: Steel: in terms of plain steel, it is suggested to focus on the one hand, on the one hand, on the proposed Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) \ ( Hubei Shuanghuan Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(000707) 070707070707070708, buy in, Hubei Shuanghuan Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(000707) 07070708, buy in, buy in, buy in, buy in, buy in, buy in), and ( Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) , not rated) Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) ( Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) , not rated); In terms of special steel, it is suggested to pay attention to new energy nuclear power special material suppliers, such as Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) ( Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) , buy).
New energy metals: it is suggested to pay attention to enterprises rich in lithium resources such as Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ( Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , not rated), Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ( Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , buy), Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) ( Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , not rated), etc.
Copper: it is suggested to pay attention to Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) ( Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , buy) with both copper and gold ends expanding; And lithium battery copper foil manufacturers: Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ( Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , not rated), Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) ( Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , not rated), etc.
Aluminum: it is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) ( Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , not rated), Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) ( Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , buy), and high-end aluminum enterprises Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) ( Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , not rated).
Jin: it is suggested to pay attention to Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) ( Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) , not rated), Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) ( Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) , not rated), etc
Risk tips
Macroeconomic growth slowed down; Price fluctuation of raw materials
