Demand side: affected by the epidemic, residents’ credit contracted significantly in April, and mortgage demand needs to be boosted
In April 2022, the new credit increased by 645.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 824.6 billion yuan and a month on month decrease of 2484.6 billion yuan. In April, residents’ short-term loans decreased by 185.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 222.1 billion yuan and a month on month decrease of 570.4 billion yuan; Medium and long-term loans to residents decreased by 31.4 billion yuan, an increase of 523.2 billion yuan year-on-year and 404.9 billion yuan month on month; From January to April 2022, the cumulative increase of medium and long-term loans to residents was 1.04 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 58.0%. The proportion of medium and long-term loans to new residents accounted for about 11.6% (the annual level in 2021 was 30.5%).
As of April 20, the five-year LPR quotation was 4.6%, the lower limit of the national first house mortgage interest rate was 4.4%, and the lower limit of the national second house mortgage interest rate was 5.2%. As of April 20, the interest rate of the mainstream first house loan and the mainstream second house loan in 103 key cities released by the shell Research Institute were 5.17% and 5.45%, respectively 17 BP and 15 BP lower than that of the previous month; The average lending cycle in April was 29 days, which was 5 days shorter than that of the previous month.
On April 29, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting. The meeting proposed to support all localities to improve real estate policies based on local conditions and support rigid and improved housing demand. On May 15, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a document to adhere to the principle of “no speculation in housing and housing” and adjust the differentiated housing credit policy; Among them, on the basis of the national unified reduction of the lower limit of the first loan interest rate, the provincial government will independently determine the lower limit, and the demand for house purchase promotion will enter a substantive stage. At present, covid-19 epidemic is repeated, affecting the normal operation of the real estate market. The demand side is affected by factors such as the decline of residents’ expected income, and the confidence of house purchase has yet to be restored. At the same time, the attention of the improved house purchase demand of “multi child policy” + “parents living together” has increased, and the credit support for rigid house purchase is expected to be further strengthened. The two types of reasonable house purchase demand may be released intensively after the epidemic eased and the support increased, resulting in the rise of mortgage demand.
Supply side: in April, the issuance scale of domestic bonds was reduced, and the net financing gap of overseas bonds continued to expand
In April 2022, domestic and foreign real estate enterprises issued 59.7 billion yuan of bonds in a single month, with a month on month ratio of – 30.6%, a year-on-year ratio of – 37.8%, and a monthly net financing of – 30.8 billion yuan. Among them, domestic bond issuance in April was lower than that in March, with a monthly issuance of 50 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 28.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 38.1%, and a monthly net financing of 2.3 billion yuan; In April, the scale of overseas bond issuance was also reduced. The monthly issuance was 9.7 billion yuan, down 38.6% month on month and 35.9% year-on-year. The monthly net financing was about – 33.1 billion yuan (from – 30.7 billion yuan in March). Since October last year, the monthly net financing has been negative for seven consecutive months. The amount of real estate collection trust established in 2024 was RMB 8.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of about 8.52%.
Intensive real estate regulation and control policies continue to release warmth to the market, but affected by the epidemic, macroeconomic and other factors, the sales end of real estate enterprises is not smooth, the credit re expansion is blocked, and the financing scale at home and abroad has decreased. In April, the Chinese dollar real estate bond index showed a downward trend of shock, and the interest rate of new bonds issued by real estate enterprises at home and abroad in a single month increased compared with the previous period.
Investment suggestions: 1) since the beginning of 2022, many parties have released the capital area pole signal, the five-year LPR has been reduced by 5bp, affordable housing loans have not been included in the concentration management, new measures for pre-sale regulatory funds have been adopted to rectify structural deviations, and major banks have provided M & A financing support“ α The “risk” repair enters the implementation stage. 2) At the same time, the trend of financial Prudential Management and “deleveraging” will continue to deepen, and some early over radical real estate enterprises“ α “Risk” may still be exposed, but the real estate market“ β The overall trend of “coefficient” health and stability will not change. 3) On February 24, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development proposed to “meet the reasonable demand for improved house purchase”. On March 5, the report of the two sessions of the National People’s Congress “support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing demand of house buyers”. On April 29, the high-level meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee set the tone of “support all localities to improve real estate policies based on local conditions”, and the policy path was clearer and clearer; On May 15, the CBRC of the central bank adjusted the differentiated housing mortgage policy, the provincial market independently determined the lower limit of mortgage points, improved its independence, and promoted the demand for house purchase to enter the substantive implementation stage; Subsequently, with the improvement of the epidemic situation, the supply and demand of the real estate industry can be expected to recover. 4) Recently, the market has paid more attention to the real estate sector, and high-quality leading real estate enterprises have performed well. It is suggested to pay attention to Vanke A / Vanke enterprises, China Jinmao, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China overseas development, China Overseas Hongyang group, China Resources Land, Longhu group and Yuexiu real estate.
Risk analysis: covid-19 epidemic, economic restructuring and Sino US trade friction may lead to the development and employment of some industries in China falling short of expectations, which will affect residents’ income and credit expansion; The “three red lines” of real estate enterprises superimpose the centralized debt repayment period, and the risk of credit default of some real estate enterprises increases.
