Core view
Crude oil related information:
Crude oil and related inventory: on May 6, 2022, the commercial inventory of crude oil in the United States was 422.2 million barrels, an increase of 8.5 million barrels per week; Gasoline inventory was 225 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of 3.6 million barrels; Distillate oil inventory was 104 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of 900000 barrels; Propane inventory was 442.24 million barrels, with a weekly increase of 3.414 million barrels. U.S. crude oil production and number of drilling rigs: on May 6, 2022, U.S. crude oil production was 11.8 million barrels per day, a decrease of 100000 barrels per day per week and an increase of 800000 barrels per day compared with a year ago. On May 13, the number of drilling rigs in the United States was 714, with an increase of 9 in the week and 261 in the year; The number of drilling rigs in Canada is 88, with a weekly decrease of 3 and an annual increase of 29. Among them, there are 563 oil production rigs in the United States, with an increase of 6 in the week and 211 in the year.
Price change:
Among the 188 chemical products we monitored, the top three products with price increases this week were liquid chlorine (up 29.1%), glufosinate (up 13.0%) and hydrogen peroxide (up 10.5%); The top three declines were formic acid (down 29.4%), ammonium nitrate International (down 16.7%) and chloroform (down 7.5%).
Monthly, the top three products with price increases were glyphosate (up 35.1%), liquid chlorine (up 22.3%) and hydrogen peroxide (up 22.1%); The top three declines were formic acid (down 36.8%), trichloroethylene (down 31.7%) and ammonium nitrate International (down 29.3%).
Price difference change:
The top three products with price difference increase this week are butyl acrylate price difference (up 71.7%), polyvinyl alcohol price difference (up 36.4%) and monoammonium phosphate price difference (up 32.8%); The top three declines were maleic anhydride (benzene method) spread (down 149.9%), DMAC spread (down 42.8%) and polyethylene spread (down 38.4%).
Monthly, the top three products with price difference increase were PTA (up 396.3%), monoammonium phosphate (up 142.4%) and butyl acrylate (up 70.7%); The top three declines were maleic anhydride (benzene method) spread (down 195.6%), polyvinyl alcohol spread (down 137.0%) and DMAC spread (down 60.8%).
Investment proposal and investment object
We believe that as the impact of China’s epidemic subsides and the marginal demand improves, chemicals will have a round of economic recovery. Among them, the products with high combined gas unit consumption and high energy consumption are expected to obtain greater upward flexibility due to the significant increase in costs in Europe. In the report “cost curve reconstruction drives the upward elasticity of the industry”, based on the analysis of the global capacity structure and the proportion of China’s exports, it is expected that MDI, TDI, butanol and adipic acid will perform more prominently in the future. We recommend MDI and TDI leading enterprises Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) ( Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , buy in), adipic acid leading enterprises Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) ( Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , buy in), and suggest paying attention to butanol leading enterprises Luxi Chemical Group Co.Ltd(000830) ( Luxi Chemical Group Co.Ltd(000830) , not rated).
Risk tips
Changes in carbon neutralization policy, changes in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and China’s demand recovery is less than expected.
