Key investment points:
Big home: under the background of steady growth, the marginal improvement of the real estate chain drives the upward revision of the post cycle valuation of the real estate sector. The expectation of China’s steady growth in the past 22 years remains unchanged. As a pillar industry of China’s economy, local real estate policies continue to be loosened, the outlook of the real estate chain is expected to rebound, the medium and long-term home demand will be supported, and the beta of the home sector is expected to increase significantly. Since March, some cities across the country, such as Qinhuangdao, Harbin, Quzhou and Zhengzhou, have liberalized the requirements of sales and purchase restrictions. From January to April of 22 years, the total amount of social financing was 12.97 trillion yuan, and the scale of social financing in April was 0.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of – 51.0%. From January to march of 22, the completed investment in real estate development totaled 2.78 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.70%. In April, the transaction area of commercial housing in the top 10 and 30 large and medium-sized cities was 4.0793 million square meters and 8.1686 million square meters respectively, a year-on-year decrease of – 58.21% and – 54.24%. From January to April of 22, the completed area of residential housing totaled 146.62 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of – 11.4%. From January to April of 22, the newly started area of residential housing totaled 288.77 million square meters, A year-on-year decrease of – 28.4%. The real estate sales side is still in a downward trend. Many places moderately liberalize the policies of purchase and sale restrictions, reduce the threshold of provident fund use, reduce the down payment and reduce the loan interest rate. The decline in real estate sales in some areas has narrowed. With the continuous improvement of the long-term mechanism of real estate, the downward trend of national real estate sales is expected to be alleviated. On May 11, Changsha issued the “pilot implementation plan on promoting the multi-body supply of rental housing in Changsha and multi-channel guarantee to revitalize the stock housing”, which is expected to reduce the vacancy rate of stock housing and stimulate household demand. China’s regional regulation is expected to improve the overall fundamentals of real estate from bottom to top. The deregulation of real estate policies is expected to drive the recovery of the home sector in the post real estate cycle. Leading enterprises will take the lead in benefiting, and are expected to continue to expand market share by virtue of brand and channel advantages.
It is suggested to pay attention to the customization leader Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , which has multiple categories and channels, runs through the whole decoration and large home model, and the rapid growth of wardrobe and accessories. The company should build a brand matrix of “opal”, “opaline”, “Panax” and “opaline”. In 21 years, the sales channel of opaline will be comprehensively upgraded, the revenue will increase by 65%, and the expected target of opaline in 2022 will be more than 25%; Channel side: establish an integrated channel ecological chain of traditional retail, decoration enterprises and e-commerce, and gradually change to retail service providers; Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , which is optimistic about the middle and high-end brand positioning, the upgrading of products from cabinet business to the whole customization, the synchronous promotion of multiple categories of cabinet clothing and wood, and the accelerated expansion of new packaging channels, the retail channel Milana stores maintain a rapid opening speed, and it is expected to set up 200 ~ 300 new stores every year. The whole packaging channel has entered a period of rapid development, strengthen cooperation with local dealers and local decoration enterprises, or become the performance growth point of the company. Hhc Changzhou Corp(301061) , which focuses on the research and development of high-tech moat, independent production of core components and vertical integration within the supply chain to realize closed-loop development and self-produced Hhc Changzhou Corp(301061) , the company actively develops overseas customers, signed a new customer Costco in March 21, and the order demand is expected to continue to increase. Changzhou and Vietnam have two production bases, forming a China Vietnam collaborative supply network. After the fund-raising project is put into operation, it is expected to increase the production capacity of 450000 smart electric sofas, The production capacity of 280000 sets of intelligent electric beds and 350000 mattresses. Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , which pays attention to the development of a full range of large homes, continuously improves the category layout and optimizes the product structure, has a multi brand matrix in the software field of Natuzzi, rolfbenz, Gu Jia, tianxipai, etc., which can meet the needs of consumers with different price bands and different style preferences, and subdivides the categories, which is expected to improve the brand market share. Actively promote the “1 + N + X” channel development strategy, create a multi category integrated large store model, promote the reform of regional retail centers, pre channel management and marketing functions, empower the decision-making power of terminal channels, and strengthen the synergy of terminal channels. Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) , which pays attention to brand upgrading and channel expansion, actively promotes digital transformation and upgrading, innovates channel mode and big home development strategy, and contributes to sustained performance growth, the company’s kitchen cabinet retail business has grown steadily, wardrobe and wooden door have achieved rapid growth, whole house customization has strengthened category synergy, so as to realize the integrated development of bathroom balcony, smart home, kitchen electricity and household products, and promote the development of kitchen, clothing, wood Channel layout of electrical appliances and other categories to accelerate the reform and sinking of channels. Pay attention to Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) , the leading enterprise in China’s mattress industry, the steady development of mattress business and the rapid growth of soft bed and sofa business scale, the prominent bulk advantages, the steady progress of “multi brand and multi category” strategy and the integration of categories and channel dividends, the upgrading of retail sales channels, the promotion of channel expansion and the improvement of retail customer unit value, and the growth of Ekornes enabled by the introduction of war investment, The “three new” marketing reform promotes the growth of retail sales and the continuous optimization of financial costs Qumei Home Furnishings Group Co.Ltd(603818) .
FMCG: with the rise of national tide and personal protection, the marginal improvement of epidemic prevention and control, and the promotion of “618” e-commerce Festival is expected to boost demand. Recently, attention has been paid to the marginal improvement of the situation of epidemic prevention and control in Shanghai, and the demand side is expected to improve with the unsealing of epidemic prevention and control. Pay attention to Chenguang Co., Ltd., which has strong channel barriers, high-volume kelip and steady expansion of Jiumu store. R & D investment drives product upgrading, and high-quality cultural and creative products increase product premium. In 2022q1, the gross profit margin of writing tools, student stationery and office stationery has increased, and the high-end stationery may open a profit space; The one-stop service of office supplies, marketing gifts and MRO continue to develop, and the rapid growth of klip’s business is expected to improve the company’s valuation; The number of stores of Jiumu sundry agency continues to expand, and the epidemic situation may be disturbed in the short term. It is optimistic about the improvement of the operation capacity of a single store in the long term, so as to provide a new increment of performance for the company; Pay attention to the continuous improvement of the three fields of home care, personal care and tourism, and optimize the C&S Paper Co.Ltd(002511) , nursing supplies and health products. Driven by the company’s dual brands of jierou and Taiyang, the company continues to strengthen the high-end and younger brands, so as to effectively promote the competitiveness of products and revenue; Pay attention to the implementation of the incentive plan, deeply bind the management, highlight the long-term development confidence in the performance evaluation objectives, steadily expand the channels Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) , the price of women’s health care products is still low, and the increase of film price is expected to drive the growth of the industry; The company makes efforts online, optimizes offline and promotes the high growth of free point brand.
New type of tobacco: the new type of tobacco regulatory policy has been implemented, and attention has been paid to the value of the layout of the new type of tobacco industry chain. In April 2022, China’s e-cigarette policies were successively issued. On April 12, the national standard of e-cigarette was approved. On April 13, the State Administration of market supervision and relevant departments of the state tobacco monopoly administration made clear responses to issues such as the scope of industry supervision, transition period, license application and trading platform. On April 15, five guiding documents were issued for the management rules of product production, wholesale and retail licenses, technical review and traceability, China’s e-cigarette regulatory system has been basically established. China’s policy: the compulsory national standard of e-cigarette has been issued and implemented since October 1. The policy is uncertain. It is optimistic about the standardized development of e-cigarette industry for a long time.
The national standard of e-cigarette mainly stipulates the following aspects: 1) nicotine extracted from tobacco shall be used, and the purity shall not be less than 99% (mass fraction). The flavor of e-cigarette will mainly express the flavor of tobacco, and the synthesis of nicotine and herbal cigarette bombs are limited. 2) There are 101 kinds of atomizing additives in the white list, including coolants and sweeteners, and the space for preparing sub flavor is reserved. 3) The concentration of nicotine in the atomized material shall not be higher than 20mg / g, and the total amount of nicotine shall not be higher than 200mg. The existing 3% and 5% smoke bombs on the market will not be sold. It is suggested to pay attention to SIMORE international, which has outstanding R & D strength and built high barriers to core manufacturing. The company’s core independent supply position is stable. With the implementation of China’s policy this time, the order volume is expected to usher in an inflection point and return to the normal level of the previous year. The ceramic atomization technology is leading, the global share is rising, the automatic production line layout, the production capacity is put in order, the company has the advantage of exclusive supply of large customers and the comprehensive competitiveness of products is leading.
Papermaking: the price of pulp continues to rise, benefiting from the integration of pulp industry chain. The rise of pulp price drives the price rise market. With sufficient self-produced wood pulp, the paper mill will continue to benefit and continuously transmit the cost pressure. The leader is expected to maintain a stable profit. Focusing on Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) , which has the “Integrated Forest Pulp and paper” production system, has certain control over upstream raw materials and continuous release of production capacity, the company has built “three production bases” in Shandong, Guangxi and Laos, has the “Integrated Forest Pulp and paper” production system, and self-made wood pulp varieties include chemical pulp, dissolved pulp, semi chemical pulp, chemical mechanical pulp, waste pulp, natural color chemical pulp and sawdust pulp, laying a solid foundation for long-term development. In March 2022, it acquired Guangxi Liujing Chengquan (with an annual output of 150000 tons of pulp and 200000 tons of paper). The taiyanghonghe ultra-high strength special paper project with an annual output of 34000 tons is expected to be put into operation in the second half of 2022. In 2022, Guangxi started the domestic paper project with an annual output of 150000 tons (the first phase with an annual output of 100000 tons is expected to be completed and put into operation in the second half of 2022).
Packaging: the industry concentration continues to improve, and the leader of high-quality paper and plastic packaging is expected to continue to grow relying on electronic, dairy and other tracks. Focusing on the rapid growth of environmental protection paper and plastic business, the automation of wine packaging production line and benefiting from the continuous growth of 5g consumer electronics Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) , the overall performance of the company maintains a relatively rapid growth. The growth rate of environmental protection paper and plastic business is as high as 62.07%, and the growth rate of paper high-quality packaging and packaging supporting products is about 25%. The company plans to become a provider of high-end packaging integrated solutions in the next 3-5 years. In 2021, the wine bag business implemented information automation and built an intelligent production line. The construction of Xuchang intelligent factory has been officially put into operation, realizing the integration of business flow, information flow and logistics. Pay attention to the composite plastic temsector block. It is suggested to pay attention to the high-quality structure of downstream customers. Shanghai Ailu Package Co.Ltd(301062) , which is deeply bound with Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) and other cheese growth tracks, has more than 700 customers. The downstream customers of industrial paper packaging business cover building materials, chemical industry, food, medicine and other industries, and are less affected by the operation risk of a single downstream industry; The cheese stick packaging business includes well-known brands such as Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) , Yili, Guangming and Shandong Junjun. The demand side is stable. The company increases the R & D investment in new products such as new environmental protection materials and normal temperature cheese film. The low-temperature and normal temperature cheese stick industry is growing rapidly. The company is expected to rely on the plastic packaging business of cheese stick to drive high performance growth. In the metal packaging sector, the canning rate of beer has gradually increased, the upgrading of high-end packaging is obvious, and the supply and demand pattern is expected to improve, driving the significant increase of capacity utilization. It is suggested to pay attention to Org Technology Co.Ltd(002701) .
Risk tip: real estate regulation tightened; Price fluctuation of raw materials; Repeated outbreaks outside China
