Electrification promotes intellectualization, which will promote the transition of wire controlled chassis to large-scale application: with the promotion of carbon peak and carbon neutralization all over the world, the introduction of a series of reward and punishment measures not only promotes the rapid development of new energy vehicles, but also provides a foundation for the development of intelligent vehicles. Compared with the traditional chassis, the chassis by wire has the advantages of lightweight, energy saving and accurate operation, which is in line with the development direction of automotive electric intelligence.
The core of chassis by wire is the growth track, braking by wire & steering by wire: among the four systems of chassis by wire, the core lies in braking & steering, which is still on the eve of mass production and has a large growth space. With the increasing penetration of electric vehicles, the gradual advancement of intelligent networking and the upgrading of consumption, we expect 1) the scale of 2025e wire controlled braking Chinese market / global market is about 6.8 billion yuan - 11.8 billion yuan / 14.1 billion yuan - 24.9 billion yuan, and the CAGR of 20212025e Chinese market is about 44% - 66%; 2) 2025e wire control turns to the Chinese market / global market, with a scale of about RMB 3.2 billion-5.5 billion / RMB 6.7 billion-11.6 billion.
The industry pattern of brake by wire may be re washed, and the onebox scheme will become the mainstream: the brake by wire system provides power directly through the motor, completely abandons the traditional vacuum power system, fundamentally improves the logic of brake power, and solves the pain point of the difficulty of obtaining vacuum source for new energy vehicles. According to whether the brake power is transmitted through hydraulic pressure, the wire controlled braking system can be divided into wet wire controlled braking system (EHB) and dry wire controlled braking system (EMB): among them, EMB has better braking performance and degree of integration, but there are certain pain points (space constraints, material performance, etc.), which may not become the mainstream scheme in the market in the medium and short term; EHB derives onebox and twobox solutions based on whether they are integrated with esp. onebox solution, which has the advantages of high integration, lightweight and efficient recovery, is expected to become the mainstream solution at this stage. At present, the mainstream scheme in the Chinese market is Bosch ibooster + ESP scheme (twobox), and the overall penetration rate of line control is low. We believe that independent parts enterprises with onebox mass production scheme may quickly expand market share in this round of line control.
Steering by wire, software deployment creates technical barriers, landing on a large scale or later: the steering by wire system further cancels the hard link between the steering wheel and the steering mechanism on the basis of EPS. At the same time, the two motors provide steering assistance and road feeling feedback respectively. Its advantage lies in the flexibility and comfort brought by mechanical decoupling, which provides more imagination space for high-order automatic driving and intelligent cockpit functions, However, since the basic driving assistance function may be met through the electric power steering system, we believe that the large-scale penetration time of steer by wire may be later than that of the linear control system. The structure of steering by wire product is similar to that of r-eps, and the technical difficulty lies in the safety redundancy under mechanical decoupling and the simulation of steering feel. We judge that companies with good r-eps technology and strong software development ability will gain greater voice in the subsequent process of large-scale steering by wire system.
Key recommended targets: brake by wire ( Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ) & steering by wire (Nextel): we recommend 1) domestic brake parts supplier Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ( Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) . SH), and give a "buy" rating for the first time; 2) Nextel (1316. HK), a global leader in steering system, gave a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk tip: the global epidemic control is lower than expected, the global sales of cars are lower than expected, the shortage of chip supply is higher than expected, the decline of upstream raw material prices is lower than expected, and the exchange rate risk.
