According to the data released by the construction industry in April, manufacturing investment remained resilient, infrastructure growth continued to increase year-on-year, and real estate investment still declined; The overall performance of land transactions is poor, the decline in construction has expanded, and the real estate sales need to be further strengthened by the policy China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) completion data improved significantly.
Investment data: in April, fixed asset investment increased year-on-year, the manufacturing industry was more resilient, infrastructure investment maintained a growth trend, and the decline in real estate investment expanded: in April, fixed asset investment was 6.5 trillion, an increase of 2.3% year-on-year, slightly lower than that in March. Among them, the completed investment in manufacturing, infrastructure and real estate development was 1.9 trillion, 1.7 trillion and 1.1 trillion respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.4%, 4.4% and – 10.1% respectively. In terms of structure, the year-on-year growth rate of manufacturing investment is resilient, infrastructure investment still maintained a year-on-year growth trend, and real estate investment decreased slightly year-on-year. We believe that it is mainly due to the impact of the epidemic in many parts of the country, which has slowed down the pace of investment.
Infrastructure investment: in April, infrastructure investment continued to increase year-on-year, while electricity, transportation and public investment increased slightly year-on-year: infrastructure investment in April was 1.7 trillion, up 4.4% year-on-year, continuing the growth trend from January to March. Among them, the investment in power, transportation and public utilities was 0.28 trillion yuan, 0.63 trillion yuan and 0.75 trillion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.3%, 3.7% and 5.7% respectively. In April, the investment in the three sub projects maintained a sustained growth year-on-year, but affected by the epidemic, the year-on-year growth rate was significantly narrowed compared with March.
Land transaction: in April, the year-on-year decline of land transaction area and supply area in Baicheng narrowed, and the transaction unit price and listed floor unit price fell: in April, the planned land transaction area of 100 large and medium-sized cities was 87 million square meters, down 47.4% year-on-year; The average transaction floor price is 2108 yuan / square meter, with a decrease of 690.0 yuan / square meter. The supply area is 125 million square meters, with a decrease of 51.2%; The unit price of the listed floor is 1547.0 yuan / square meter, with a decrease of 1659.0 yuan / square meter. In April, the land transaction and supply area of Baicheng decreased significantly year-on-year, and the overall performance of land transaction was poor.
Real estate construction: the decline rate of commencement in April was larger than that of the previous month, and the year-on-year decline rate of completion was also lower, but the decline rate was narrowed: in April, the newly started and completed areas of real estate were 99 million and 31 million square meters respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of – 44.2% and – 14.2% respectively. The decline rate of started area was expanded, and the decline rate of completed area was narrowed. We believe that the main reason for the poor performance of new construction and completion data in April is that the construction progress has slowed down due to the impact of the epidemic in many places.
Real estate sales: in April, the year-on-year decline in sales volume was significantly expanded, and the sales price decreased year-on-year, maintaining stability month on month: the total sales area of commercial housing in April was 87 million square meters, with a decrease of 39.0% compared with that in March; The average sales unit price of real estate was 9326.3 yuan / square meter, with a decrease of 12.5%, slightly higher than that in March. In April, the decline of commercial housing sales area expanded significantly, and the sales unit price remained basically stable month on month, indicating that the current real estate sales situation is still poor, and the real estate easing policy needs to be further strengthened.
Newly signed orders: in April, the amount of newly signed orders of China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) , China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) increased year on year: in April, the amount of newly signed orders of China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) , China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) was 235200 yuan respectively.0, 86.62 billion yuan and 20.14 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 51.5%, 6.8% and 29.1% respectively. In April, the China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) construction area and completed area were 179.7 billion yuan and 147.6 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of – 39.1% and 204.3% respectively. The completion data performed well.
Investment advice
Recommended capital construction sector and assembled design leader Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) .
Main risks of rating
Risk tip: manufacturing investment slows down, the promotion of prefabricated buildings is less than expected, and the industry policy risk.
