In April 2022, China’s monthly cement output was 195 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.9%; In April, the national flat glass output was 85.64 million weight boxes, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%. The price toughness of roving and electronic yarn was high, the price toughness of roving was still maintained, and the glass fiber inventory accumulated for many consecutive months.
Cement: the year-on-year decline in output expanded, and the impact of real estate construction was significant. From January to April 2022, China’s cumulative cement output was 581 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.8%. In April, China’s monthly cement output was 195 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.9%. In April, the construction area of real estate decreased by 44.19% year-on-year, down a lot; The growth rate of infrastructure investment was 4.35%, maintaining growth, but the growth rate decreased month on month; In the case of sluggish real estate construction and falling growth rate of infrastructure investment, the demand for cement is general and the price remains weak. At present, many provinces and cities have announced the peak shifting production plan in summer. The cement output may still decline in May, but the cement price may have an upward momentum.
Glass industry: stable price, inventory accumulation and rising cost pressure. From January to April 2022, the national output of flat glass was 339.08 million weight boxes, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7%; In April, the national flat glass output was 85.64 million weight boxes, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%. At present, the national average glass price is 102.3 yuan, and the price is relatively stable. From the cost side, the price of petroleum coke rose sharply, with a month on month increase of 17.4%. The price of soda ash has risen to 2793.0 yuan / ton. In terms of inventory, affected by the downturn of real estate completion, the downstream demand for glass is relatively weak, and the inventory has accumulated for several consecutive weeks. At present, the number of inventory days is 20.7 days.
Glass fiber industry: electronic yarn rebounds at the bottom, roving falls back, and toughness still exists. The export of glass fiber industry maintained a substantial growth, and the export volume once exceeded US $350 million. At the same time, the import volume of glass fiber fell slightly. Considering that this time last year was the middle of the upward cycle of this round of glass fiber boom, and the base is not low, we believe that the current export boom of glass fiber is still good and is expected to continue. The price toughness of roving and electronic yarn is high, and the price of rhodium metal drops: glass fiber roving still maintains strong toughness. At present, the prices of 2400tex winding direct yarn, 2400tex felt ply yarn, 2400texsmc ply yarn and 2400tex jet ply yarn are 6120, 9025, 8750 and 9850 yuan / ton respectively, which is relatively stable compared with the previous period. The price of electronic yarn has been relatively stable recently after falling continuously in March, and the average price per ton of G75 electronic yarn has remained at 8875 yuan / ton for four consecutive weeks. The price of platinum alloy at the cost side has rebounded after a slight decline recently. At present, the unit price of platinum metal is 222.8 yuan / g; The price of rhodium metal is 3920 yuan / g.
Raw materials: coal prices rose and fell, and soda ash and asphalt prices rose: Recently, the price of soda ash and coal at the cost of main raw materials and energy in the building materials industry fluctuated significantly. The coal price rose to 1700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year and fell to about 1378 yuan in the near future; Soda ash prices rose sharply at the beginning of the year and then fell back, with a slight increase recently; Crude oil prices rose under the interference of international conflicts and other events, with recent high shocks. Asphalt prices rose more in April. Key recommendation
The cement industry recommends Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , and pays attention to Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) ; Plastic pipe
Recommend ad shares and Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , and pay attention to China Liansu; Waterproof recommendation Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ; Pharmaceutical glass faucets Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass Co.Ltd(600529) and flat glass faucets Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) with relatively low valuation are recommended in the glass industry; Recommended by glass fiber industry China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) , Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) ; Recommended water reducing agent Lets Holdings Group Co.Ltd(002398) .
Main risks of rating
Risk tip: the demand for glass fiber is less than expected, and the pace of production capacity is accelerated; The fiscal rhythm is still slow, and the real estate easing and infrastructure recovery are less than expected; Industry policy risk; Rising raw material costs; The real estate chain continues to be weak.
