Core view
The turnover of new houses and second-hand houses increased this week. This week, the number of new houses sold in 43 cities was 32000, up 84.6% month on month and down 56.1% year-on-year; The number of new houses sold in 17 large and medium-sized cities was 20000, an increase of 84.3% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 52.4%; 1、 The number of new houses sold in the second and third tier cities changed by 133.7%, 90.6% and 31.9% month on month respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 44.5%, – 53.0% and – 57.9% respectively. The number of second-hand housing transactions in 15 cities was 14000, with a month on month increase of 185.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 23.3%; The number of second-hand housing transactions in 11 large and medium-sized cities was 12000, up 186.8% month on month and down 21.5% year-on-year; 1、 The number of second-hand housing transactions in second and third tier cities increased by 162.8%, 196.2% and 209.2% month on month respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 44.6%, – 6.2% and 1.2% respectively.
The inventory of new houses and the decontamination cycle have increased compared with last week. The inventory of new houses in 15 cities was 1047000 units, up 0.6% month on month, and the decontamination cycle was 18.8 months, up 0.7 months month on month; The inventory of new houses in 8 large and medium-sized cities was 572000, a month on month decrease of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. The decontamination cycle was 14.2 months and a month on month increase of 0.4 months; The inventory of new houses in the first tier cities was 279000 units, a decrease of 0.2% month on month. The deconvolution cycle was 15.5 months, an increase of 1 month month on month. The inventory of new houses in the second tier cities was 205000 units, a decrease of 0.4% month on month. The deconvolution cycle was 14.8 months, and there was no significant change on month on month. The inventory of new houses in the third tier cities was 89000 units, a decrease of 0.3% month on month, and the deconvolution cycle was 10.4 months, a decrease of 0.2 months on month on month.
The overall land market fell compared with the volume and price of last week, and the land premium rate decreased. The number of all types of land sold in Baicheng was 195, with a month on month decrease of 50.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 53.2%; The planned construction area of the land traded was 14.7 million square meters, down 54.9% month on month and 49.5% year-on-year; The total land transaction price was 50 billion yuan, down 59.4% month on month and 69.6% year-on-year; The average floor price of land traded was 3400 yuan / m2, down 10.0% month on month and 39.8% year-on-year; The land premium rate of Baicheng was 0.98%, down 85.6% month on month and 95.1% year-on-year.
The issuance scale of Chinese bonds of real estate enterprises increased month on month and decreased year on year. The total issuance of Chinese bonds in the real estate industry was 7.046 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.2% (former value – 51.7%) and a month on month increase of 58.3%; The total repayment amount was 4.325 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 66.8% (previous value: – 78.8%) and a month on month decrease of 82.9%; The net financing amount was 2.721 billion yuan. The total issuance of Chinese corporate bonds was 7.046 billion yuan, an increase of 86.4% year-on-year (previous value: – 42.9%) and 58.3% month on month; The total repayment amount was 4.130 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.3% (previous value: – 89.6%) and a month on month increase of 360.1%; The net financing amount was 1.87 billion yuan. Private enterprises have not issued Chinese bonds for eight consecutive weeks, with a total repayment of 195 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 97.1% (previous value – 42.9%), a month on month decrease of 87.0%, and a net financing amount of 851 million yuan.
Investment advice
This week, the central bank released financial data for April, which showed that resident loans in April increased by 745.3 billion yuan less than the same period last year, mainly due to the sharp decline in housing loans; Housing loans decreased by 402.2 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting the sluggish demand for real estate sales and residents’ housing loans, and the early credit support has not yet landed. At the local level, Dongguan and Nanjing relaxed the purchase of houses by multi child families, Huishan District of Wuxi issued purchase vouchers, the sales restriction period in Changzhou was adjusted from 4 years to 2 years, Yangzhou issued a new land transfer policy to extend the payment time of land transfer fees, and the supply and demand policies of all localities continued to be adjusted. At the same time, this week, the central bank lowered the lower limit of the first mortgage interest rate by 20bp, which released a positive signal of supporting the first house purchase just needed. While reducing the home purchase cost of home buyers, it helped to guide the subsequent local governments to further adjust their credit policies, reflecting that the financial support is continuously increasing. With the further acceleration of the implementation of follow-up policies and the realization of the beta market, market confidence and the repair of both ends of industry supply and demand can be expected. We suggest paying attention to four main lines: 1) the leading real estate enterprises of central state-owned enterprises with nationwide layout have been boosted by valuation in the last stage, but will still enjoy the rising space brought by the beta Market: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Longhu group and China Resources Land; 2) Regional leading central state-owned enterprises and high-quality private enterprises, but the quality of cash flow and financial report is good: China Construction Development International, Yuexiu real estate, Midea real estate, Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) ; 3) After the policy becomes clearer, we can focus on the target of elastic reversal: Xuhui holding group, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , country garden; 4) At present, the real estate post cycle property sector with strong income determination and accelerated concentration, as well as the recent credit risk mitigation of related real estate enterprises and elastic reversal: Country Garden service, Xuhui Yongsheng service, poly property, Zhonghai property and xinchengyue service.
Risk tips
Real estate regulation continues to upgrade; Sales fell more than expected; Financing continued to tighten.
