Report summary
As an important pillar industry of the national economy, the automobile industry is very important to the economy. At present, under the influence of the epidemic and other factors, the automobile industry is showing a weak situation of supply and demand, and many places are successively introducing policies to stimulate automobile consumption. The past three rounds of policy stimulus have significantly stimulated automobile consumption. This paper comprehensively combs the past automobile related stimulus policies, starts with the current supply and demand pattern, inventory and structural changes, deeply analyzes the similarities and differences with the previous stimulus background, judges the possible policy window period, and analyzes the benefited subdivided industries.
How effective were the stimulus policies in the past?
A variety of policies go hand in hand, and the combined fist boosts terminal demand. At present, China has implemented three rounds of relatively large automobile consumption stimulus policies, namely:
1) the purchase tax preference from 2009 (5%) to 2010 (7.5%) is superimposed with the subsidy policies of going to the countryside, exchanging old cars for new ones and scrapping old cars in advance;
2) purchase tax preference from October 2015 to 2016 (5%) and 2017 (7.5%), superimposed with the subsidy policy of early scrapping of old cars;
3) in 2020, new energy vehicles will be exempted from purchase tax and the subsidy period will be extended, superimposed with policies such as tax reform of second-hand vehicles, subsidies for scrapping and renewal of old vehicles, relaxation of purchase restrictions and so on. After 2015, the policy is obviously inclined to new energy vehicles.
The experience of automobile consumption stimulation is mature and effective. These three rounds of strong stimulus policies have effectively improved China's automobile sales. In 2009 and 2016, automobile sales exceeded 10 million and 25 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 45.5% and 13.7%; In 2020, the policy will promote the continuous improvement of supply and demand side, promote the optimization of passenger vehicle structure, accelerate the penetration of new energy vehicles, and continuously increase the proportion of medium and high-end models (200000 yuan and above). Under the background of the upward automobile production and sales base, the marginal utility of the stimulus policy has weakened and the effect of structural optimization has increased.
What are the similarities and differences between the new round of stimulus and the past?
Compared with the previous round of policy stimulus, the current passenger car demand is not pessimistic. The differences are: 1) at present, the terminal discount rate is at a historically low level, and the stimulus effectiveness of the policy is strong; 2) At present, the inventory is low, and there is more room for production and sales improvement under the relief of core shortage; 3) Driven by the power of new energy products, the space for sinking the market is expected to be quickly opened.
Cities with license restrictions relax purchase restrictions and are optimistic about the liberalization of new energy indicators. At present, among the seven provinces and cities with license restrictions, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have relaxed the indicators. From May to June this year, Guangzhou and Shenzhen increased 30000 and 10000 vehicles respectively on the basis of the original indicators. It is expected that other cities with license restrictions are expected to follow up and further promote automobile consumption. In addition, the demand for new energy passenger vehicles is growing rapidly, and the technical solutions of medium and long-term pure electricity and plug-in hybrid are developing in parallel. It is expected that the new energy indicators in first tier cities will be liberalized, and the licensing restrictions on hybrid vehicles may be reduced.
There is a large gap between the theoretical scrap value of Chinese cars and the actual value, and there may be policy incentives, which is expected to pry the replacement market. According to our calculation, assuming that the proportion of scrapped vehicles in 11-14 years of service is 40%, the number of scrapped vehicles in China is expected to reach 9.03 million in 2025, corresponding to 22.6% CAGR in 20212025. At present, local policies increase the compensation for trade in / scrap replacement. We believe that it is expected to accelerate the guidance of old cars into the scrap period and drive the rapid growth of replacement demand.
Cars go to the countryside to further expand the sinking market. With the superposition of replacement and new energy demand, new energy vehicles are expected to accelerate the expansion of the sinking market. New energy passenger vehicles have broad incremental space in the sinking Market: in 2021, second tier and below passenger vehicles accounted for about 66.4% of the national sales, while the proportion of new energy passenger vehicles was only 51.6%. At this stage, the recognition of new energy in the sinking market has increased significantly compared with the previous round of policy stimulus, and it is expected to usher in a rapid increase in space under the stimulus of the policy.
How will the automobile industry chain benefit?
The valuation of the whole vehicle is close to the bottom range since 2020. Excluding the traditional vehicle enterprise PE (TTM) of Byd Company Limited(002594) , electric intelligence promotes the great change of the business model of the whole vehicle, and the scientific and technological attributes and consumption attributes will become more prominent, driving the reconstruction of the valuation, firmly optimistic about the independent rise, and realize the improvement of the brand and market share through the change. It is recommended that [ Byd Company Limited(002594) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Geely H], Beneficiary object [ Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co.Ltd(601127) ].
Considering the strong correlation between parts and whole vehicles, if the automobile stimulus policy is implemented, the recovery of whole vehicle sales will drive the resonance of parts, and the volume and price rise into a virtuous cycle. The high-quality independent parts enterprises supporting core automobile enterprises are expected to take the lead in achieving performance repair, and the repressive factors such as raw material price, exchange rate, freight and epidemic situation are gradually alleviated. It is suggested to grasp the bottom opportunity under pessimism, Firmly optimistic about the industrial chain of new forces + incremental parts, with key recommendations:
1. Intelligent driving - [ Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Jingwei hengrun-w, Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) ], the beneficiary [Nextel]; Smart cockpit: Acoustics - [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) ], smart seat - [ Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) ], ceiling glass - [ Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) ], lights - [ Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) ] ( Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Fuyao are jointly covered with computer group and building materials group respectively).
2. As the price of aluminum tends to be stable, the fundamentals of lightweight are expected to turn upward. Tesla leads the general trend of integrated die casting, accelerates the expansion of the industry and improves the concentration of the industry. It is recommended that [ Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) ] [ Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ]] be the beneficiary. 3. Compared with traditional fuel vehicles, the iteration speed of new power models is faster, the supply chain verification cycle is shortened, and the supply chain tends to be flat, driving the performance growth curve of industrial chain companies to become more steep. Recommend Tesla + new power industrial chain: recommend [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) ].
Risk tips
The policy stimulus is less than expected; Shortage of chip supply in automobile industry; Fluctuations in raw material costs exceed expectations; The terminal demand of the automobile industry is lower than expected.
