Event:
On May 17, the CPPCC National Committee held a special consultation meeting on digital economy. According to the news report of China Central Television, Wang Yang, chairman of the Chinese people's Political Consultative Conference, delivered a speech, saying that we should constantly strengthen, expand and optimize the digital economy; Vice Premier Liu he said that we should support the sustained and healthy development of platform economy and private economy, support the listing of digital enterprises in foreign capital markets, promote competition with openness and innovation with competition.
The social aspect of the epidemic in Shanghai was cleared, and the reopening and resumption of production and work were carried out in an orderly manner. According to the news conference on covid-19 pneumonia prevention and control in Shanghai held on May 17, at present, all 16 districts in the city have fully cleared their social aspects. From June 1 to mid to late June, on the premise of strictly preventing the rebound of the epidemic and controlling the risk, we will fully implement the normalized management of epidemic prevention and control and fully restore the normal production and living order of the whole city.
Tmall jd.com and other e-commerce 618 activities are coming. Tmall's pre-sale time is also the same as last year, and the pre-sale is officially opened at 20:00 on May 26; From May 31 to June 3, tmall 6.1 made a good start, that is, the first wave of transaction period; From June 4 to 13, the second wave of transaction period was "tmall category Day Carnival", and from June 14 to 20, the last "tmall 618 Carnival day". Recently, tmall 618 disclosed 25 measures to help businesses, more than twice the number of double 11 last year, covering five aspects: financial subsidies, logistics dredging, flow subsidies, special measures for the epidemic and technological upgrading, aiming to enhance business confidence and help consumers recover.
All localities have issued consumption vouchers. On May 13, Chengdu released about 600 million yuan of "520 consumer coupons"; On May 13, Guizhou again issued the "2022 colorful Guizhou cultural tourism consumption voucher"; On May 14, Taiyuan ushered in the 16th round of release of consumption coupons of "Jinqing consumption · enjoying life"; Beijing has made it clear that more than 300 million yuan of "Beijing green energy-saving consumption vouchers" will be issued to consumers in Beijing from April to September.
Retaliatory consumption may come soon. On May 16, Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of statistics and director of the Department of comprehensive statistics of national economy, said that consumption is expected to recover gradually, and online consumption and upgraded consumption will still become an important support for consumption. As the impact of the epidemic is gradually controlled, the pace of consumption recovery will accelerate. From the experience since the outbreak of the epidemic in the past two years, once the epidemic is effectively controlled and the normal life order is restored, the pent up consumer demand will be released quickly. Benefiting from the development of information technology, some traditional contact consumption will accelerate the transfer to online, and the upgrading trend of residents' consumption will continue, which is conducive to supporting consumption growth.
Comments:
The convening of the digital economy consultative meeting marks the further confirmation of the "policy bottom" of the platform economy. In our report "the end of industrial policies has come" on May 1, we took the lead in pointing out that with the convening of the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on April 29, the regulatory policy on the platform economy has shifted this year, and the regulation of the Internet industry will enter a new stage of "support first, supplemented by regulation" in the future. The convening of this consultation meeting has once again verified our judgment. The statement of the central leadership has reassured those who are worried about the future regulatory overweight of the platform economy and the difficulty of financing and listing. It is expected that in the future, a clear-cut support for the healthy development of the platform economy may become the main tone of the policy, and the platform economy enterprises will continue to innovate and develop in a fair, open and competitive environment.
Shanghai's orderly opening-up and 618 promotion are approaching, the recovery of Internet and large consumption is in sight, and the "bottom of performance" may come soon. We believe that with the gradual mitigation of the epidemic in Shanghai and the gradual restoration of production and living order, e-commerce / consumption / local life / advertising and other industries are expected to usher in a rapid recovery:
From the demand side, due to long-term home life, residents' consumption will continue to be restrained, and there may be a retaliatory consumption rebound after the epidemic is alleviated. Referring to the situation in 2020 (according to the star chart data, 618 greatly promoted the whole network sales to increase by 43.8% year-on-year), we judge that 618 may become another "Carnival feast" for residents' retaliatory consumption this year.
From the supply chain side, with the mitigation of epidemic prevention and control measures, the smoothness of the logistics system will be greatly improved, and the overall performance efficiency of e-commerce will be significantly improved. At the same time, the majority of businesses are willing to take more serious actions to promote inventory through advertising, which is expected to have a greater impact than the general backlog of advertising.
From the policy perspective, promoting the healthy development of the platform economy is the main theme of this year, and stabilizing consumption through the platform economy is also an important starting point for the state and local governments to maintain this year's economic development goals. We expect that the consumption vouchers jointly issued by local enterprises combined with platform economy will play the role of "multiplier effect" and drive the rapid recovery of local e-commerce / consumer industry.
Investment suggestions: we suggest paying attention to the high-quality targets of e-commerce / optional consumption / advertising industry benefiting from the recent policy shift and consumption recovery, including:
[Hong Kong shares and China concept shares]
1. Platform economic enterprises mainly based on e-commerce / advertising revenue: [meituan-w, JD group SW, Kwai-w, Tencent holdings, Alibaba SW, pinduoduo, vipshop], etc
2. Optional consumer goods companies that take e-commerce as an important channel, including: sportswear brands [Anta, Li Ning, Tebu international, 361 degrees]; Tide play faucet [bubble Mart]
[A shares]
1. E-commerce MCN benefiting from the 618 promotion of e-commerce industry [ Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) (Yuanwang network has now become a live broadcast e-commerce MCN enterprise in the head of Tiktok / Kwai), Beijing Zhidemai Technology Co.Ltd(300785) Beijing Yuanlong Yato Culture Dissemination Co.Ltd(002878) qian MA), Hylink Digital Solution Co.Ltd(603825) ], e-commerce agent operating enterprises [ Hangzhou Onechance Tech Corp(300792)
2. Advertising industry leaders [ Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) , Three'S Company Media Group Co.Ltd(605168) ] who are expected to benefit from the recovery of e-commerce / consumer advertising budget
3. 3 3 the consumer goods companies that can choose to make e-commerce an important channel are the consumer goods companies that can choose to 3. 3. The companies that can choose to make e-commerce an important channel include: the [ Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 891 ] etc
Risk factors: the international situation continues to be volatile; Soaring commodity prices trigger inflation; The process of interest rate increase and table contraction of the Federal Reserve has started; China's economy and consumption remain depressed; The covid-19 epidemic in China and Hong Kong worsened; The delisting of China concept shares has been delayed; The relevant regulatory policies of Internet platforms continue to be overweight; The anti addiction measures of the game are upgraded, and the game version number is stopped; Increased market volatility, etc.
