The National Bureau of statistics released the retail sales data of social consumer goods in April 2022. In April, the total social retail sales decreased by 11.1% year-on-year, of which the catering revenue decreased by 5.1% year-on-year. The growth rate of retail sales of tobacco and alcohol turned negative, and the growth rate of retail sales of grain and oil, food and beverage slowed down.
In April 2022, the total amount of social retail sales was – 11.1% year-on-year, and the catering revenue was – 5.1% year-on-year. The growth rate of tobacco and alcohol revenue turned negative, and the growth rate of retail sales of grain and oil, food and beverage slowed down. 1) Total social zero: in April, the total social zero was – 11.1% year-on-year, with a growth rate of – 29.8pct year-on-year and – 7.6pct month on month; Excluding price factors, the actual total social zero in April was – 14.0% year-on-year, with a growth rate of – 29.8pct year-on-year and – 8.0pct month on month. (2) Catering consumption: Catering revenue was – 22.7% year-on-year, with a growth rate of – 69.1pct year-on-year and – 6.3pct month on month; The catering revenue of Enterprises above designated size was – 24.0% year-on-year, with a growth rate of – 84.3pct year-on-year and – 8.4pct month on month. In April, the epidemic situation in China continued to spread, and epidemic prevention policies in various regions were tightened, which had a great adverse impact on catering. (3) Food and beverage consumption: the retail sales of tobacco and alcohol were – 7.0% year-on-year, with a growth rate of – 33.2pct year-on-year and – 14.2pct month on month. The epidemic had a certain impact on the demand for catering and gifts. The retail sales of grain, oil and food increased by + 10.0% year-on-year, with a growth rate of + 3.5pct year-on-year and -2.5pct month on month. Retail sales of beverages increased by + 6.0% year-on-year, with a growth rate of – 16.3pct year-on-year and – 6.6pct month on month. We judge that the spread of the epidemic has led to a reduction in consumption scenes.
From January to April 2022, the total social zero volume was – 0.2% year-on-year, the year-on-year growth rate of catering revenue turned negative, the growth of tobacco and alcohol revenue slowed down, and the beverage revenue maintained double-digit growth. From January to April, the cumulative catering revenue was – 5.1% year-on-year (the growth rate was – 72.8pct year-on-year), a decrease of 4.9% compared with the same period in 2019. The retail sales of tobacco and alcohol increased by + 7.8% (with a year-on-year growth rate of – 32.6pct), which was + 27.4% compared with the same period in 2019. The three-year compound growth rate of retail sales of tobacco and alcohol was much higher than the catering data. We judged that the main reasons were the increase in gift demand and the upgrading of product structure. The retail sales of grain, oil and food increased by + 9.5% (year-on-year growth rate + 0.3pct), which was + 27.5% compared with the same period in 2019. The consumption rigidity was strong and was less affected by the epidemic. Retail sales of beverages increased by + 10.4% year-on-year (with a year-on-year growth rate of – 21.8pct), and + 46.2% compared with the same period in 2019. The product structure continued to upgrade and maintained a high prosperity.
Latest views: 1. The annual consumption of Baijiu is expected to show strong resilience and actively distribute high-quality varieties. (1) 1q22 famous wines maintained a high outlook. The epidemic had a great impact from March to may, and the performance in the second quarter was under downward pressure, but the market also had some expectations. (2) Looking forward to 2022, we believe that Baijiu is still the sub industry with the best growth certainty, and the demand can be replenished after the epidemic situation is alleviated. (3) Considering that the valuation has dropped to a reasonable level, we can actively layout high-quality varieties at this stage. Focus on recommending deterministic growth varieties and improved undervalued varieties, including Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , etc. 2. Food will continue to improve from the second quarter to the fourth quarter, pay attention to the varieties benefiting from the epidemic and the varieties that need to be supplemented after the epidemic, and pay attention to the performance elasticity after the price increase in the second half of the year. (1) There are more opportunities for dairy leaders, the competition pattern continues to improve, high-end white milk and low-temperature white milk maintain rapid growth, the leaders are less affected by cost fluctuations, and the performance release power is strong. (2) The frozen food industry has benefited from the changes in consumption habits brought about by the epidemic, and the leader has strong ability to resist cost pressure. It pays attention to the growth opportunities of subdivided tracks, such as Guangzhou style frozen food. (3) Snack food, benefiting from the demand growth brought by the epidemic in the short term, pays attention to the improvement progress of various companies.
(4) the price of condiments is expected to be raised in the second half of the year, and the terminal is expected to be flexible.
(5) the soft drink industry maintains a high outlook and pays attention to the advantageous enterprises with low and medium penetration in the subdivided fields.
(6) recommend He Bei Cheng De Lolo Company Limited(000848) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , and pay attention to Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) .
Risk warning. The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations, the price fluctuation of raw materials and food safety problems.
