Key points:
Medical service II rose 4.19 last week, with a moderate increase
Last week, pharmaceutical biology closed at 911149 points, up 4.11%, ranking ninth in the Shenwan industry, ranking top. The CSI 300 index rose 2.04%, and medicine outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.07%; Medical service II closed at 927841 points, up 4.19%; Traditional Chinese Medicine II closed at 703083, up 4.70%; Chemical pharmaceutical closed at 1006963 points, up 6.72%; Biological products II closed at 918870 points, up 3.08%; Pharmaceutical Business II closed at 568052 points, up 4.92%; Medical device II closed at 792146 points, up 0.69%.
Medical service PE (TTM) increased by 2.03x month on month, and Pb (LF) increased by 0.28x month on month
At present, the PE of medical service sector is 47.84x, the maximum value of PE in recent year is 108.72x, and the minimum value is 44.75x; At present, Pb is 6.44x, the maximum value of Pb in recent year is 13.71x, and the minimum value is 6.01x. PE in the medical service sector increased by 2.03x month on month, Pb increased by 0.28x month on month, and PE and Pb in the medical service sector were at the bottom level in recent one year. The premium rate of medical service sector relative to CSI 300 valuation is 302.01%. Although the valuation of the medical service sector is still high statically, considering the high performance growth of specialized hospitals and CXO industry related companies, the good development trend of the industry and policy immunity, the current valuation is more reasonable.
Important information
The national development and Reform Commission issued the bioeconomy development plan of the 14th five year plan to the society
On May 10, the national development and Reform Commission issued the "14th five year plan" for bioeconomy development to the public, which is China's first Five-Year Plan for bioeconomy, marking that bioeconomy has become a new economic form. Biotechnology and biological resources are the core elements of bioeconomy, and biomedicine is one of the four key areas of bioeconomy. The plan proposes to build a bio economy pilot area in Beijing Tianjin Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, the Great Bay area of Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao and Chengdu Chongqing economic circle, and carry out scientific and technological innovation and reform pilot projects in the fields of biomedicine, bio agriculture, bio energy and bio environmental protection.
This week's view
In 2021, the medical service industry continued to maintain high growth. The listed companies in the sector achieved a revenue of 127.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.5%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 17.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.2%. The gross profit margin and net profit margin increased by 1.1 percentage points and 0.8 percentage points respectively compared with the same period of the previous year. In 2022q1, the medical service sector achieved a total operating revenue of 39.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.7%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 5.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%, which slowed down, but the revenue and net profit attributable to the parent maintained positive growth.
The development of the epidemic in China in 2021 is relatively controllable, and the growth rate of revenue and profit of some private specialized hospitals in 2021 has returned to the pre epidemic level. Therefore, it can be seen that private hospitals have strong development toughness due to the rigid demand of their diagnosis and treatment projects and the superior operation capacity of private hospitals. In the first quarter of 2022, the epidemic situation in many places in China repeated, which greatly affected the operation of private medical institutions. It is expected that the demand for private specialized diagnosis and treatment will rebound after the tide of the epidemic recedes and the social operation returns to normal. The CXO sector still maintained rapid growth in the context of high base in 2020, and the growth rate of operating revenue and net profit attributable to parent company far exceeded the industry average. In particular, Q1 in 2022 showed an accelerating trend again.
The high level of the medical service sector has fallen, and now it has the advantage of valuation. At present, the PE of medical service sector is 47.84x, the maximum value of PE in recent year is 108.72x, and the minimum value is 44.75x. At present, it is about at the lowest quantile level in recent ten years. Although the valuation of the medical service sector is still high statically, considering the high performance growth of specialized hospitals and CXO industry related companies, the good development trend of the industry and policy immunity, the current valuation is more reasonable.
Under the condition of continuous optimization of innovation, there is also differentiation within the "innovation" track. It is expected that in the future, the innovation Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) chain will also enter the stage of "beach landing" from the previous "strategic layout". Only companies that truly realize the large amount of innovation are expected to benefit and benefit the "real innovation" industry chain. With the implementation of DRG / dip, the pharmaceutical structure will continue to be optimized and "policy immunization" consumer medical related companies will be preferred. We maintain the "overweight" rating of the medical service industry, and suggest paying attention to the following three main lines:
(1) innovative drug seller "CXO" industrial chain company: China's CXO company will benefit from the general trend of overseas production capacity transfer to China. At the same time, China's medical reform and good pharmaceutical venture capital environment make pharmaceutical R & D in full swing. It is suggested to focus on clinical cro leading companies and back-end cro / cdmo companies.
(2) private specialized medical services: the state continues to encourage social capital to run hospitals, and private specialized hospitals are small under the pressure of policies. It is suggested to focus on leading companies of specialized medical services such as stomatology and ophthalmology.
(3) third party medical laboratory: independent medical laboratory has many testing items and strong technical ability, which has obvious advantages over the hospital's own testing department. It is expected that with the continuous improvement of inspection demand and ICL penetration, the scale of China's ICL industry will continue to maintain steady growth. It is suggested to pay attention to ICL leading companies.
Risk tips
(1) uncertainty of policy changes; (2) The R & D investment of innovative drugs is less than expected; (3) Risk that the performance of the industry and listed companies is lower than expected.
