Key points:
The impact of the epidemic in China is mainly reflected in the data in April. The data dust is settled, which helps to stabilize the market. It is expected that the installed capacity of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery in April 2022 will be 13.3gwh (+ 58.1%), with a significant decrease of 38.0% month on month; From January to April 2022, the cumulative installed capacity is 64.5gwh (+ 104%).
The installed capacity of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery is highly related to the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in China, and the pace is basically the same. The impact of China's epidemic on the auto industry is huge. The impact is mainly reflected in the data in April. April is the traditional off-season of the auto market, and the sharp decline in installed capacity in April is predictable. It is worth noting that even in the most difficult period, the installed capacity in April still recorded an increase of nearly 60% compared with the same period last year, which is still not low. In any case, April is the most difficult period. The dust settled in April will help stabilize market expectations. At present, with the epidemic situation in Shanghai / Jilin under control, automobile, as a key guarantee industry, is taking the lead in returning to work and production, and China's automobile industry is returning to the normal track.
During the Spring Festival, power battery enterprises do not stop production and rush to prepare goods. It happened that the epidemic in China after the Spring Festival caused vehicle enterprises to stop production, and power batteries urgently need to be destocked
In April 2022, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery production was 29.0gwh (+ 124%), with a month on month decrease of 26.1%; The cumulative production from January to April 2022 was 130.0gwh (+ 184%) China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery production is booming.
In 2021, the ratio of annual production to installed capacity reached 1.42. It is normal that the production exceeds the installed capacity. However, since 2022, there has been a continuous abnormal and significant deviation between the production and installed capacity. It is mainly considered that the power battery enterprises do not stop production and rush to prepare goods during the Spring Festival. It happens that the epidemic in China after the Spring Festival has led to the shutdown of vehicle enterprises and the overstock of power battery inventory. Power battery production is booming, but power battery enterprises are afraid to face inventory pressure, or it is necessary to slow down the pace of production and wait for the recovery of production and sales of new energy vehicles. It is expected that the subsequent de stocking of power batteries will be the main tone.
Plug in passenger cars have performed well since 2022
Since 2022, the installed capacity of plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles has increased rapidly, mainly because plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles are less affected by the decline of subsidies. In addition, the Byd Company Limited(002594) dm-i platform technology is advanced, which has also set off an upsurge of plug-in hybrid vehicles. Recently, Byd Company Limited(002594) Han dm-p has been listed, focusing on surging power performance and achieving acceleration of 3.7 seconds and 100 seconds. We believe that the development of new energy vehicles does not mean full and pure electrification, and plug-in hybrid vehicles should not be regarded as transitional products. Plug in hybrid vehicles have their own customer base, and we are also optimistic about plug-in hybrid vehicles.
Investment advice
It is estimated that the installed capacity of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) batteries will be about 215gwh (+ 39%) and the production capacity will be about 344gwh (+ 57%) in 2022, implying that the forecast for the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in the middle of 2022 is about 5 million (+ 42%). 2022 will still be a year of booming production and sales of power batteries. The industry will grow rapidly, and the performance of relevant listed companies is worth looking forward to. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading companies of power batteries and lithium battery materials. Maintain the "overweight" rating of the industry.
Risk tips
Repeated outbreaks in China; The new energy vehicle industry is greatly affected by the policy and the boom fluctuates violently; Competition in the power battery industry has intensified.
