In April, the computer industry continued to callback. As of the end of April, the computer industry index fell 17.03%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 6.31%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 4.89% and the gem index fell 12.80%; Since the beginning of 2022, the computer industry has fallen 32.63%, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen 17.53%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 has fallen 20.88%, and the gem index has fallen 32.43%.
In 2021, the computer industry achieved a year-on-year increase of 15.19% in the main business income, a year-on-year increase of 3.56% in the net profit attributable to the parent company, and a year-on-year decrease of 55.83% in the net cash flow from operating activities; The roe of the industry as a whole was 6.00%, down 10.04% year-on-year. The overall performance of Q1 in 2022 was average. The top sectors with year-on-year growth in revenue were industrial interconnection, smart cars, big data and cloud computing, with year-on-year changes of 33.59%, 32.97%, 28.10% and 22.67% respectively. We believe that the Growth Logic of the leading companies of these tracks has not changed, and they may be killed by mistake in the near future. With the recovery of sentiment, it is expected to usher in an oversold rebound. In 2022q1, the proportion of contract liabilities + accounts received in advance was 49.64%, a year-on-year decrease of 6.06% compared with 52.85% in 2021q1; In Q1 2022, from the year-on-year change of the net profit attributable to the parent, the front sectors include geographic information, industrial interconnection and smart cars, and the year-on-year growth of the net profit attributable to the parent was 70.46%, 47.09% and 9.93% respectively.
At present, the overall valuation level of the computer industry (PE, TTM, excluding negative values) is 33.65 times, which is lower than the historical average level of the industry in recent ten years. In the short term, the industry needs to continue to digest 2022q1 performance disturbance and other factors, but the annual allocation value is becoming more and more clear.
In addition, it should be noted that the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on April 29 to analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work. The meeting proposed “to promote the healthy development of the platform economy, complete the special rectification of the platform economy, implement normalized supervision, and introduce specific measures to support the standardized and healthy development of the platform economy”. The statement of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on the platform economy has undergone significant changes. The previous statement on strengthening antitrust, strengthening supervision and preventing disorderly capital expansion of the platform economy has been changed. The supervision may peak in the medium and short term. We expect that after the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee meeting, the platform economy may usher in a turnaround in 2022, and the companies related to the industrial chain deserve attention.
Investment advice
We suggest to grasp the main line of digital economy investment. In the near future, we suggest to focus on the following main lines: 1. The valuation of leading companies upstream and downstream of cloud computing track continues to decline, and the configuration value of leading companies with low peg is prominent; 2. “Pan security” includes high-quality leading companies of Xinchuang, network security and industrial software.
Focusing on the recommendation of Inspur Electronic Information Industry Co.Ltd(000977) ; ( Servyou Software Group Co.Ltd(603171) . SH), Longshine Technology Group Co.Ltd(300682) ( Longshine Technology Group Co.Ltd(300682) . SZ), Beijing Tongtech Co.Ltd(300379) ( Beijing Tongtech Co.Ltd(300379) . SZ), State Grid Information&Communication Co.Ltd(600131) ( State Grid Information&Communication Co.Ltd(600131) . SH), Yonyou Network Technology Co.Ltd(600588) ( Yonyou Network Technology Co.Ltd(600588) . SH), Zhejiang Supcon Technology Co.Ltd(688777) ( Zhejiang Supcon Technology Co.Ltd(688777) . SH) Shanghai Friendess Electronic Technology Corporation Limited(688188) Shanghai Friendess Electronic Technology Corporation Limited(688188) .SH）、 Willfar Information Technology Co.Ltd(688100) Willfar Information Technology Co.Ltd(688100) .SH）、 Sangfor Technologies Inc(300454) Sangfor Technologies Inc(300454) .SZ）、 Dbappsecurity Co.Ltd(688023) Dbappsecurity Co.Ltd(688023) .SH）、 Runa Smart Equipment Co.Ltd(301129) Runa Smart Equipment Co.Ltd(301129) .SZ）、3 Luolai Lifestyle Technology Co.Ltd(002293) 00229.SZ）、 Shanghai Baosight Software Co.Ltd(600845) Shanghai Baosight Software Co.Ltd(600845) .SH）、 Shenzhen Fortune Trend Technology Co.Ltd(688318) Shenzhen Fortune Trend Technology Co.Ltd(688318) .SH）。
Risk tips
Risks of intensified industry competition; The risk of Sino US friction; Supply chain risk affected by epidemic
