Recent market review
From April 16, 2022 to May 16, 2022, CSI 300 fell by 5.54%, and the machinery sector fell by 4.29%, outperforming the market by 1.25 percentage points. It ranked 17th among all the first-class industries of Shenwan. Among the 19 sub industries, abrasive tools and abrasives, industrial control equipment and refrigeration and air conditioning equipment performed better. As of May 16, 2022, the industry TTM P / E ratio is 11 times (overall method, excluding negative values), and the valuation premium rate relative to CSI 300 is 113%.
Review of the overall situation of the machinery industry
In terms of construction machinery, 24534 excavators of various types were sold in April, a year-on-year decrease of 47.3%; Among them, there were 16032 sets in China, a year-on-year decrease of 61%; 8502 sets were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 55.2%. In April, 10975 loaders of various types were sold, with a year-on-year decrease of 40.2%. Among them, the sales volume in the Chinese market was 8050 units, a year-on-year decrease of 47%; The export sales volume was 2925 units, a year-on-year decrease of 7.44%. From the start-up hours of excavators, all major regions in the world, except Indonesia, decreased in varying degrees in April. The start-up hours of Komatsu in China was 102.8 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 16.6%.
In terms of industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) production, the cumulative output of industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) production in the first April of 2022 was 125439 units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%. In April, the fixed asset investment in manufacturing industry increased by 12.2% year-on-year. In the main downstream application scenarios, the fixed asset investment in 3C industry increased by 22.1% year-on-year, and the fixed asset investment in automobile manufacturing industry increased by 10.4% year-on-year.
Investment strategy
In terms of construction machinery, according to the data of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, 24534 excavators of various types were sold in April 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 47.3%, and the decline was narrowed. From January to April 2022, 101709 excavators were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 41.4%. We believe that the policy has repeatedly emphasized the comprehensive strengthening of infrastructure construction. With the gradual normalization of epidemic control and the commencement of major projects, the sales data of construction machinery in the second quarter is expected to narrow significantly. In this expectation, it is suggested to focus on the leading manufacturers of construction machinery Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) ( Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) ), Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) ( Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) ), and the manufacturer of core parts Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) ( Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) ).
In terms of photovoltaic equipment, the government work report of the two sessions changed the expression of carbon peak from "doing a solid job" to "orderly promotion" in 2021, and proposed that the energy consumption intensity target should be comprehensively assessed within the 14th Five Year Plan period, with appropriate flexibility. The new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption should not be included in the total energy consumption control. This will accelerate the transformation of China's clean energy economy and alleviate the constraints of traditional energy consumption.
Risk warning: risk of epidemic spread; The macroeconomic growth rate is lower than expected; Raw material price fluctuation risk.
