Steel:
The two major conferences of the central financial and Economic Commission and the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee pointed out the direction for building a modern infrastructure system. In the future, the stable economic policy to promote infrastructure investment is expected to be accelerated and improve the marginal demand for steel and iron. In the long run, we need to pay attention to the growing special steel field under the import substitution logic.
Industrial metals:
Fed hawkish remarks suppress copper and aluminum prices. In terms of aluminum, the overseas situation interferes with supply; At the meeting of the Political Bureau of China, it was proposed to strengthen macro policy adjustment, alleviate the epidemic and stabilize the economic policy effect, or gradually appear. It is expected that the aluminum price will run at a high level throughout the year, and the industry will enjoy high profits.
New energy metals:
The high price auction of lithium ore in Pilbara, an Australian lithium mining company, confirms that the current supply and demand of lithium resources is tight. Shanghai may achieve a comprehensive social clearance in mid May. At that time, it will implement orderly liberalization, limited flow, effective control and classified management, which is expected to release the production pressure of enterprises in the new energy vehicle industry chain. At the same time, the supply and circulation of materials will gradually return to normal, and the downstream demand for lithium will gradually recover. It is expected that the price will stabilize and remain high when the demand side improves.
Rare earth:
Some factories in Changchun and Shanghai affected by the epidemic resumed production, and the demand has been repaired. At the same time, the price has been corrected to a certain extent, the enthusiasm of procurement demand has been strengthened, and the increment at the supply side is limited, supporting the stabilization and recovery of prices.
Precious metals:
Under the pressure of high inflation, the Federal Reserve continues to express strong hawkish remarks, the gold price is facing greater upward pressure, and the short-term gold price may remain high.
Investment advice
It is suggested to pay attention to Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) ( Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) ) and Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ( Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ). It is suggested to pay attention to Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ( Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ) and Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) ( Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) ) for industrial metals. It is suggested to pay attention to Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ( Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ), Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ( Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ), Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) ( Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) ). It is suggested to pay attention to China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) ( China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) ) and China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) ( China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) ). It is suggested to pay attention to Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) ( Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) ) for precious metals.
Risk tips
The risk of price fluctuation of raw materials, the risk that downstream demand is lower than expected, and the risk that covid-19 epidemic spread is higher than expected.
