Key investment points:
The product of large-scale economy under the changing times
Although the catering industry has faced many difficulties affected by the epidemic since 2020, in the post epidemic period, on the basis of stable economic development, the acceleration of the pace of life and the change of population structure have led to long-term changes in eating habits and an increase in the frequency of residents dining out and ordering takeout. Therefore, the stable development of the catering industry is the underlying logic for the sustainable development of catering supply chain enterprises. In addition, the operating costs of the catering industry continue to rise and the chain rate continues to increase, which makes catering enterprises have higher requirements for food material standardization and taste stability. Catering supply chain enterprises can meet the above needs through large-scale production. The development of cold chain logistics also provides guarantee for the development of catering supply chain.
Frozen food is deeply involved in the industry, and its penetration rate and space still need to be improved
With the increasing demand for semi-finished food materials at the catering end, the rise of semi-finished food materials enriches the quick-frozen food market and gives the quick-frozen food industry new development opportunities. According to the data of the 2018 development report of China’s frozen and frozen food industry, the main business income of the quick-frozen noodles and rice products manufacturing industry from 2018 to 2019 was 73.6 billion yuan / 77.4 billion yuan respectively, which declined slightly in 2020 affected by the epidemic. We expect that in the future, as the development of the industry enters a mature period, the scale of the industry may maintain a small single digit growth. Compared with household consumption, catering channels will develop with a higher penetration rate.
Due to the continuous improvement of Chinese residents’ income and consumption level, consumers’ demand for nutritious and convenient quick-frozen surimi products and quick-frozen meat products is increasing. At the same time, with the rapid rise of hot pot categories in China’s catering industry, catering standardization and consumption scenarios drive the rapid development of quick-frozen hot pot materials. Nationwide, industry leaders coexist with a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises, and the market is relatively scattered. However, with the continuous improvement of the scale of the industry and the continuous promotion of the branding of leading enterprises, the market share will show a trend of gradual concentration, and national brands are gradually taking shape.
The competition of compound condiments is white hot, and the first mover enterprises have obvious advantages
Compound seasoning takes basic seasoning as raw material and becomes seasoning with special flavor after further processing. Chinese diet pays attention to the “harmony of five flavors”. Cooking is characterized by complex taste. It is the combination and adjustment of condiments in different proportions that can achieve the realm of delicacy. Because cooking skills need long-term experience accumulation, the preparation and operation of a variety of single condiments in cooking are cumbersome, beginners have difficulty in blending, and it is difficult to ensure stable taste, so composite condiments came into being. The compound condiment industry is still in the period of development, coupled with the rapid increase in demand during the epidemic, which makes the industry face certain fluctuations and intensified competition. Although the demand slowed down last year, it was accompanied by the clearing of industry inventory and small and medium-sized enterprises, and the competition pattern of the industry improved. Looking forward to the future, polyphony is still a high growth track. After the catering consumption scene gradually recovers in the post epidemic period, the industry is expected to continue to improve.
Investment advice
Although this year, due to the impact of the epidemic, some catering consumption scenes are missing. However, in the long run, with the sustainable development of social economy, the scale of catering will continue to expand steadily in the post epidemic period. The chain of catering and the standardization of takeout provide development opportunities for catering supply chain enterprises. In addition, under the cost pressure of the catering industry, economies of scale shift the focus of the industrial chain to the upstream, and the development of cold chain logistics also escorts the industry. As the main subdivision direction of the catering supply chain, quick-frozen products and composite condiments will fully benefit from the dividends brought by the development of the industry. Enterprises with channel first mover advantage and new product R & D ability are expected to continue to increase market share and occupy a leading position in the market. To sum up, we give the industry a “optimistic” investment rating and recommend Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) ( Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) ), Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) ( Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) ), Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) ( Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) ) and Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.Ltd(603317) ( Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.Ltd(603317) ).
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risks, food safety issues, and epidemic prevention and control are less than expected
