Main points
The epidemic situation was superimposed repeatedly, market expectations were pessimistic, and the decline in commercial housing sales further expanded. As the urban implementation strategy entered the deep-water area, the epidemic situation in some cities repeated in April, affecting the overall sales of the market. Superimposed on the overall improvement of commercial housing sales in the first half of 21 years, there was a certain high base impact, and the year-on-year decline in real estate sales from January to April was large. From January to April, the sales area of commercial housing was 337 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 25.40%, and the sales of commercial housing was 3.32 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 32.20%.
Sales continued to decline, the low temperature of the land market continued, and the year-on-year decline in land purchase area widened. From January to April, the real estate sales market was depressed, and the traditional “gold, silver and four” xiaoyangchun missed the appointment, which affected the sales collection of developers. At the same time, under the debt repayment peak in the first half of the year, developers, especially private developers, have great capital pressure and low willingness to take land. From January to April, the land acquisition area of real estate development enterprises was 17.66 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 46.50%; The land transaction price was 95.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.6%.
The growth rate of construction area changed from positive to negative, and the new construction and completion fell further year-on-year. Overall, in the first four months, real estate sales were under pressure, developers’ capital flow pressure increased, new construction enthusiasm was insufficient, and the growth of construction area under the disturbance of the epidemic turned negative. From January to April, the new construction area of commercial housing in China was 289 million square meters, down 28.40% year-on-year; The construction area of commercial housing in China was 5.78 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%; The completed area of commercial housing in China was 147 million square meters, down 11.40% year-on-year.
The growth rate of completed investment in real estate development turned negative, and the year-on-year decline of funds in place at the financing end expanded. From January to April, the completed investment in real estate development was 3.92 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.70%; Among them, the residential investment was 2.95 trillion, down 2.1%. The cumulative year-on-year decline of funds in place at the financing end expanded. From January to April, the funds in place of real estate development enterprises reached 4.85 trillion, a year-on-year decline of 23.60%; Among them, China’s loans were 683.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.40%; Self raised funds amounted to 1.63 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%; Deposits and advance receipts reached 1.54 trillion, down 37% year-on-year; Personal mortgage loans amounted to 803.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.10%.
Investment advice
The fundamentals of the industry have not improved, because there is still room for urban implementation. With the gradual relaxation of local sales and local auction policies, the state-owned central enterprises with low leverage in the early stage will take the lead in benefiting, and the industry pattern is facing reconstruction. It is recommended to pay attention to the relevant targets: (1) real estate enterprises with low financing cost and sustainable land acquisition in the first and second tier cities, such as Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) ( Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) . SH), Greentown China (3900. HK), Longhu group (0960. HK), Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) ( Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) . SZ), Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) ( Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) . SH) Cinda Real Estate Co.Ltd(600657) ( Cinda Real Estate Co.Ltd(600657) . SH), etc.
Risk tips
Real estate policy regulation exceeded expectations; Real estate sales fell short of expectations.
