The construction of large new energy bases has accelerated, and the demand and challenge of power spatial balance have increased. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the nine clean energy bases and large wind power photovoltaic bases are planned to have an installed capacity of 665 million KW and 200 million KW. It is expected that the cross regional and cross provincial power flow will increase from 220 million kW in 2019 to 360 million kW in 2025, including 240 million kw of cross regional power flow. By the end of 2021, the nine clean energy bases have built 304 million kilowatts. Large wind power photovoltaic base projects focusing on deserts, Gobi and desert areas will be connected to the grid and put into operation in 2022, and the consumption pressure in some western and northern regions will increase.
UHV solves the imbalance between power resources and load areas and the problem of new energy consumption. UHV transmission can transmit wind power, photovoltaic power generation and hydropower in the “Three North” and southwest regions to the areas with strong power demand in the East and central regions, and effectively solve the problems of unbalanced energy load distribution and new energy consumption. By the end of 2021, a total of 39 UHV projects are under construction in China. The total length of UHV lines exceeds 50000 kilometers, and the capacity of substations / converter stations exceeds 600 million KVA / kW. The UHV investment in the 13th five year plan accounts for 13.8% of the total investment in power grid. The UHV project has been put into operation, with an average annual transmission of new energy power of nearly 230 billion kwh, accounting for more than 50% of the total transmission power of the channel.
The construction of UHV in the 14th five year plan and the 15th five year plan has been accelerated. We estimate that during the “14th five year plan” period, DC transmission channels in Northeast China, Mengxi, Shanxi, northwest and southwest need to increase the transmission capacity by 84.52 million KW, and 1, 5, 5 and 1 UHV DC projects need to be added in each region, a total of 12, with an investment of about 260 billion yuan. During the same period of the 14th five year plan, 16 UHV AC projects still need to be built to improve the AC synchronous power grid, with an investment of about 190 billion yuan. The investment of UHV DC transmission project in the tenth five year plan is about 380 billion yuan, and the investment of supporting UHV AC projects is about 210 billion yuan.
AC / DC hybrid power grid has become a new form, and flexible DC may have a large growth space due to technical iteration. UHV AC transmission lines are mainly used to build regional main grid and become the core backbone of strong smart grid; UHVDC transmission lines are mainly used for long-distance and large-scale transmission of new energy and asynchronous connection between regions. IGCT can meet the development needs of larger capacity, higher reliability and better economy of flexible DC transmission in the future. It is expected to realize technology substitution in the rapid growth stage of UHVDC.
Investment suggestion: China will build a new energy supply and consumption system based on large-scale wind and solar power bases, supported by clean, efficient, advanced and energy-saving coal power around them, and supported by stable, safe and reliable UHV power transmission and transformation lines. UHV plays a role in balancing energy and load distribution and promoting new energy consumption. It is an important framework of a strong smart grid. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, it will continue to ensure the long-distance and long-term development of new energy Large scale transportation. UHV also undertakes the important task of supporting the economy and stabilizing growth. The government will also continue to increase the investment in UHV construction. The performance growth of UHV equipment leaders is highly certain from 2022 to 2023.
Key recommendations: Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) , Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) .
It is suggested to pay attention to: China Xd Electric Co.Ltd(601179) , Henan Pinggao Electric Co.Ltd(600312) , Baoding Tianwei Baobian Electric Co.Ltd(600550) .
Risk analysis: UHV construction is not as expected; Risk of policy change; Risk of declining profitability.
