\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 905 China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) )
Main points:
Rely on the Three Gorges group to build a world-class new energy company.
As the strategic implementer of the new energy business of the Three Gorges group, the company vigorously develops the new energy power generation business. Its main business is the development, investment and operation of wind energy and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , as well as some small and medium-sized hydropower businesses. At the same time, it actively carries out pumped storage, new energy storage, hydrogen energy, photothermal and other businesses, basically forming a business pattern of mutual support and coordinated development of wind power, Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , energy storage and strategic investment. At present, the company's installed capacity of onshore wind power accounts for 42%, offshore wind power accounts for 20% and photovoltaic power generation accounts for 37%. Its business has covered 30 provinces and regions in China, and its installed capacity and profitability are among the first echelons of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) enterprises.
With the coordinated development of scenery, the performance continued to increase.
In 2021, the company's cumulative installed capacity reached 22.9gw, of which the cumulative installed capacity of wind power was 14.3gw, with a year-on-year increase of 61%, accounting for 4.34% of the market share of the national wind power industry, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2 percentage points; The cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation reached 8.4GW, with a year-on-year increase of 29%, accounting for 2.74% of the market share of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation industry in China, with a year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points. Benefiting from the production and power generation of the company's new projects in 2021, the rapid increase of the installed capacity of Fengguang and the growth of the investment income recognized by the equity investment in the industrial chain, the company's operating revenue and profit have increased significantly. In 2021, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 36.9% and 56.3% respectively year-on-year.
Centralized and contiguous layout, leading offshore wind power
The company adheres to the strategic goal of "leading offshore wind power", and offshore wind power has obvious first mover advantages. By the end of 2021, the cumulative installed capacity of the company's offshore wind power projects had reached 4.6gw, accounting for 17.3% of the total installed capacity of offshore wind power in China, ranking in the forefront of China. The five "megawatt" offshore wind power bases in Guangdong, Fujian and Jiangsu have begun to take shape. The centralized and continuous large-scale development pattern has taken shape, forming a rolling development pattern of "one batch of production, one batch of construction, one batch of approval and one batch of reserve".
Clear project planning and strong certainty of performance growth
During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the Three Gorges group plans to achieve 70 ~ 80gw of new energy installed capacity. As an important strategic implementation subject of the group's new energy business, the company plans to achieve no less than 5GW of new installed capacity every year during the 14th Five Year Plan period and maintain a stable growth trend.
The planned installed capacity of projects under construction in 2021 will reach 11.1gw, including 5.0gw of wind power projects under construction and 6.0gw of photovoltaic projects under construction. The scale of projects under construction is in the forefront among new energy operators. As of 2022q1, the company has started the construction of 3.3 million KW offshore wind power projects, and the deterministic increment has promoted the high growth of the company's performance.
Investment advice
We predict that from 2022 to 2024, the company will realize operating revenue of 22.5 billion yuan, 27.63 billion yuan and 33.01 billion yuan; The year-on-year growth rates were 45.3%, 22.8% and 19.5% respectively. The corresponding net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.92 billion yuan, 9.52 billion yuan and 11.26 billion yuan, and the corresponding EPS was 0.28 yuan, 0.33 yuan and 0.39 yuan respectively. Considering the abundant project resources of the company, the installed capacity is expected to continue to grow rapidly during the "14th five year plan" period, superimposed with the first mover advantages of industrial chain investment cooperation and offshore wind power, the company is now given a "buy (first time)" rating of 25 times PE in 2023 and a reasonable valuation corresponding to the target price of 8.25 yuan.
Risk tips
Risk of industrial policy change; Capital and liquidity risk; Investment decision risk; Power market demand risk.
