\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 195 Gongniu Group Co.Ltd(603195) )
Since 2014, Gongniu Group Co.Ltd(603195) has successively entered the fields of LED lighting and digital accessories, launched the online e-commerce platform of charging gun for new energy vehicles in 21 years, and started the trial sale of non main lamp business. While consolidating and expanding the competitive advantages of its core main business, the company continues to promote product innovation iteration and category expansion around the demand for household power connection. Taking the market space and market share of the company's new and old businesses as the starting point, this paper tracks the development situation of each business, calculates the hedging effect of product price rise from the impact of bulk price changes on the company, and explores the resilience of the company's profitability.
\u3000\u30001. Space and current situation of new and old business
Electrical connection: consolidate the leading position of civil drainage and plug-in, and enter the field of b-end and new energy. Based on the firm leading position of C-terminal plug-in business, the company has proposed two development directions of electrical connection in the past 21 years: 1) in the field of industrial power distribution, it has launched a series of electrical connection products suitable for data center, such as PDU, bus, industrial connector and so on; 2) Enter the new energy electric connection, and successively launch a number of portable charging guns and household AC charging pile products for new energy vehicles. We believe that the company's entry into the b-end + new energy field will open up business development space, and it is expected to quickly grab share by virtue of product strength and brand strength, giving power to the growth of electrical connection business.
Intelligent electrician lighting: develop and expand the industrial space at the b-end, and establish a bull intelligent ecology relying on the main lamp. As one of the company's core businesses, wall socket contributes to the main revenue of this sector. LED lighting and other intelligent ecological products are the new business of the company in recent years and the main driving force for the revenue growth of this sector. The company's recent development plan for intelligent electrical lighting business is as follows: 1) wall socket business, promote the customer unit price through intelligence and high-end, and continue to deepen the lean marketing, which is expected to continue to consolidate the C-end sales advantage; Strengthen the cooperation between decoration enterprises and real estate enterprises and seize the market share of b-end. 2) LED lighting + household appliances: light source business development, commercial scene, decorative lights give intelligence. At the same time, apply bonge intelligent light control technology to develop a whole house intelligent ecology with no main lamp as the core and covering other intelligent household appliances.
Digital accessories: Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) during the flow change period, the strategic transformation has achieved initial results. In the two-way traffic transition period of the company's digital accessories business in the 21st year, the company focused on two strategies for this business: 1) focusing on fast charging products, driving the improvement of product standardization, stability and security; 2) Comply with the needs of outdoor leisure and emergency power supply, focus on portable energy storage, and develop to high-power, lightweight and intelligent. We believe that the company's establishment of the Pearl River Delta Center in Shenzhen is expected to rely on the local digital industrial belt to achieve continuous technical empowerment and help the rapid repair of category revenue in the future.
\u3000\u30002. Price elasticity and valuation of raw materials
The impact of the price rise of bulk raw materials on civil electricians in this round exceeds that in the previous round. In order to cope with the rising pressure of raw material costs, bull used futures hedging to lock the price in the early stage. With the expiration of the early contract and the increase of the execution price of the later contract, the net interest rate of 21h2 was under pressure. In order to alleviate the pressure of the continuous rise of bulk costs, bulls adjusted the prices of products many times this year. Combined with the decline of the overall price of bulk products in the first half of the year, the year-on-year decline of gross sales difference and net interest rate in 22q1 was narrower than that in 21q4. The company has raised the prices of all product lines collectively since the end of April. It is estimated that under the price increase range of 3% - 10% of the whole category, the company's 22-year gross profit margin will increase to 37.4% - 39.8%; Increase the net interest rate of each expense to 22.7% - 24.7%.
Investment suggestion: as an electrician leader, the company has a clear logic for long-term development - consolidate the leading position of wall socket and converter business in advantageous categories, continue to enable the growth of LED lighting and digital accessories business, incubate emerging businesses such as charging gun / pile and outdoor power supply, and open a broader power consumption scene. We continue to be optimistic about bull's leading position in the electrician field and the growth of new tracks. It is estimated that the net profit of the company in 22-24 years will be RMB 3.149/36.85/4.235 billion (before maintenance), and the corresponding valuation will be 27.5x/23.5x/20.5x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the risk of macroeconomic slowdown; Business development is less than expected; The completion data is less than expected; Fluctuation risk of main raw materials.
