\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 180 Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) )
Deeply cultivate the custom cabinet line, and the layout effect of new categories is beginning to show. Founded in 1999, the company has been deeply engaged in cabinet for more than 20 years. In terms of categories, wardrobe and wooden door were launched in 2016 and 2018 respectively, with rapid growth. At present, they account for less than 26%, and there is still much room for improvement; In terms of channels, the bulk business expanded smoothly, accounting for 33% of revenue, maintaining a high growth rate. The expansion of categories and channels has promoted the continuous high growth of the company for several years. The company has launched equity incentive plan for two consecutive years to fully mobilize the enthusiasm of employees. The equity incentive target in 2021 is 20% increase in net profit from 2022 to 2023, reflecting the company's confidence in its own development.
The concentration of furniture industry is still low, and there is enough room for market sinking and channel reform. The furniture manufacturing industry has a large scale, with a revenue scale of 800 billion in 2021, which can accommodate multiple industry giants. The industry concentration continued to increase, and the market share of 9 listed customized furniture companies increased from 1.71% in 2013 to 7.68% in 2021. We believe that category expansion is an important factor that will drive the continuous improvement of market share. Multi category sales of furniture meet the needs of consumers for convenience, integrated design and preferential treatment; From the perspective of enterprise operation, various categories of furniture have a high degree of coincidence in channels, processes and materials. Multi category operation helps enterprises form scale advantages. However, at the same time, multi category operation also puts forward higher requirements for the supply chain ability and brand strength of customized furniture companies. Therefore, we believe that the head company is more smooth in category expansion. For the second tier head companies represented by gold medals, there is still much room for network sinking and encryption, and the number of stores maintains a good growth momentum. Bulk and home decoration businesses bring new channel changes to the industry and provide opportunities for head companies to accelerate growth.
Relying on the advantages of cabinets, expand category boundaries and open up growth space. The company's cabinet categories have established advantages in channel layout, product strength and brand strength. Cabinets still have room for growth: retail channels still have room to open stores; Large channel customers have high recognition and are expected to continue to grow. Cabinet production is more difficult than wardrobe, and the company can market new categories with the help of cabinets, and wardrobe and wooden doors maintain rapid growth. Compared with the peers who started with cabinets, the development speed of the company's new categories is high. The company is expected to re carve the development path of the industry, and the new categories continue to grow rapidly. In addition, the company has made great efforts to promote the whole house customization and even the whole customization business with wardrobe as the core, which is expected to promote the rapid increase of ancillary products revenue.
Multi channel development drives category synergy, and retail channel management is gradually refined. Retail channels: blank market expansion and channel encryption will continue to promote the rapid growth of the number of stores. The establishment of inter store organization and the strengthening of inter category management of the company. Gradually refine the management, such as assessing the participation rate of dealers in marketing activities and other measures. At present, the average delivery volume of stores has increased. In terms of bulk channels: the growth is fast, and the company has been the preferred kitchen cabinet brand among China's top 500 real estate companies for ten consecutive years. The agency mode ensures the company's collection ability. Under the credit risk of real estate enterprises in 2021, the company has almost no bad debts of accounts receivable. The company accelerates the introduction of wardrobe and wooden door categories in bulk business, which is expected to promote the sustained, healthy and rapid growth of bulk business. Overseas channels: the company adopts differentiation strategies for different regions, and recently set up a manufacturing base in Southeast Asia to gradually build an integrated cycle of supply, production and marketing in the overseas market. With the gradual maturity of the operation mode, the overseas market is expected to become an important growth point of the company.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company has accumulated strong product strength and brand strength in cabinet category, and the category and channel expansion are smooth. At present, there is sufficient blank market space, and new categories will continue to promote the company to achieve a high growth rate. We expect the company to achieve revenue of 4.266 billion yuan, 5.205 billion yuan and 6.301 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is 414 million yuan, 513 million yuan and 626 million yuan, respectively. The corresponding PE is 993 yuan, 8.03 yuan and 6.58 yuan respectively. It is covered for the first time, and the company is rated as "recommended".
Risk tip: the recovery of real estate sales is less than expected, the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply, and the epidemic affects terminal demand.
