\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 340 Gem Co.Ltd(002340) )
Starting from the recycling of waste batteries and cobalt nickel metals, the company has gradually formed the business layout of “urban mines + new energy materials”, and formed five industrial chains, including new energy material manufacturing, comprehensive utilization of power batteries, recycling and high value of e-waste, cobalt nickel tungsten recycling and cemented carbide manufacturing Battery / electronic waste / cobalt nickel metal recycling and other fields are in a leading position.
Taking the new energy express, the company’s revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company have increased rapidly, and the business of new energy materials has become the absolute core business of the company. In 2021, the revenue of the new energy material manufacturing industry chain accounted for 72% of the total annual revenue, and also contributed 77% of the gross profit.
The “three elements” of demand capacity and raw materials ensure the prospect of high performance growth.
The strong global production and sales of new energy vehicles has driven the high demand for precursors, and enterprises have actively expanded production. The high nickel trend of ternary lithium battery and the sudden rise of lithium iron phosphate have intensified the competition in ternary field.
The mature pricing model of ternary precursor based on the price of raw metal plus a certain processing fee can effectively ensure the stability of net profit and is less affected by the change of raw material price. The company’s technology, quality and high-end product shipments account for a high level, creating a leading gross profit margin in the industry.
By signing strategic supply agreements with downstream leading enterprises, the company has disclosed nearly 1.1 million tons of precursor orders before 2026; The company’s “Jingmen + Taixing + Fu’an” one main and two auxiliary manufacturing bases have been basically formed, and the production capacity of 230000 tons has entered the rapid release stage. The production and sales volume of precursors is expected to reach 180000 tons in 2022 and 500000 tons in 2026; Through medium and long-term procurement, Indonesian nickel project investment and power battery recycling business accumulated for many years, the company actively plans to achieve 100% nickel resource self-sufficiency through recycling. The “three element” guarantee of demand for production capacity and raw materials enhances the certainty of high growth of the company’s future precursor performance.
Green recycling, green recycling.
With the advent of power battery retirement tide, the company’s battery recycling business has maintained a high growth trend in the past three years. The company has completed the layout of five recycling bases, further integrated the battery recycling business, and planned to steadily promote the global power battery recycling layout by introducing international and Chinese strategic investment and social capital.
In the field of resource recycling, the company actively promotes green recycling listing by splitting the e-waste recycling business; In terms of business operation, the company opened up the recycling path of copper and precious metals in waste circuit boards by deeply excavating the high-value recycling technology of plastics and waste circuit boards, so as to reduce the dependence on subsidies.
Investment suggestion: we predict that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 31.9 billion yuan, 43.3 billion yuan and 53.3 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.7 billion yuan, 2.36 billion yuan and 2.9 billion yuan. The corresponding PE is 19, 13.8 and 11.1 times respectively. Covering the company for the first time and giving a “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the repeated impact of the epidemic, the change of battery technology, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles are lower than expected.
