\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 481 Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) )
Key points
Energy saving and water-saving equipment and polysilicon reduction furnace leader, "double carbon" drives strong photovoltaic growth: the company is China's energy-saving and water-saving equipment and polysilicon reduction furnace leader. It started from bromine refrigerator and injected assets into Shuangliang new energy equipment subsidiary engaged in the research and development of polysilicon reduction furnace in 2015. At present, it has formed two main business segments of "energy saving and water saving + photovoltaic new energy", accumulating a large number of high-quality customers and rich development experience. The "double carbon" goal creates a broad market space. The company achieved a revenue of 3.83 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 85% at the same time. With the further implementation of the "double carbon" layout and the continuous delivery of abundant orders in hand, the photovoltaic business is expected to continue to drive the company's performance growth.
The layout of large-size monocrystalline silicon wafers has strong late development advantages and promising growth potential: in 2021, the company established its subsidiary Shuangliang silicon materials (Baotou) Co., Ltd. and officially entered the large-size monocrystalline silicon wafers. The first phase of the project took more than 200 days to complete the whole process from planning to production. By the end of 2022q1, the annual capacity of about 8GW of the first plant in the first phase has been fully put into operation. At present, the company has signed 9 long silicon wafer sales orders with Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , aixu Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , Tongwei Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) and other companies. The order amount from 2022 to 2024 is 77.913 billion yuan, and the shipment of silicon rod / wafer in 2022q1 is about 0.9gw. With the implementation of 40gw capacity in two phases of the company, the revenue of silicon wafer business is expected to continue to grow at a high speed.
The expansion of silicon material production has driven the strong demand for polysilicon reduction furnace, and the orders on hand have exceeded 3 billion yuan since 2021: with the entry of photovoltaic power generation into the era of parity, the demand for photovoltaic power has increased greatly, the supply of silicon material is in short supply, and the silicon material enterprises continue to expand production. The polysilicon reduction furnace business of the company has grown rapidly in the upstream of the industrial chain. In 2021, the sales volume of 357 sets has increased by 1452.2%, and the operating revenue has increased by 979 million yuan, 453.6%. Since 2021, the company's polysilicon reduction furnace system orders have exceeded 3 billion yuan, and the new orders have exceeded 1.8 billion yuan since 2022 / 5 / 92022. The future performance is expected to continue to maintain a high growth trend with the expansion of downstream silicon material companies.
The technology of energy-saving and water-saving equipment is leading, and the leader seizes the opportunity of "double carbon" and develops steadily: Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) is the leading company of energy-saving and water-saving equipment in China. The company started with bromine chillers and has accumulated 40 years of experience in R & D and manufacturing of energy-saving and water-saving equipment. In the industrial field, bromine chillers and air coolers ranked first in the market share in 2021, and heat exchangers were absolute leaders in the field of air separation. Under the background of "double carbon" policy driving the technical improvement of energy-saving and water-saving equipment, the company has significant development advantages and stable business growth. In 2021, the sales volume of bromine cooler / heat exchanger / air cooler reached 626 / 643 / 7668 sets respectively, with an increase of 38.5% / 65.3% / 39.0%, and the revenue of energy-saving and water-saving business was 2.558 billion yuan, with an increase of 39.62%.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: benefiting from the "double carbon" goal, the company's energy-saving and water-saving business grew steadily. Under the long-term favorable trend of significantly increasing the proportion of renewable energy power generation and accelerating the transformation of energy system, the silicon material enterprises expand their production and the superposition equipment enters the renewal period, which will bring multiple driving forces to the company's polysilicon reduction furnace, and the silicon wafer and photovoltaic module business will also fully benefit from the high prosperity of the photovoltaic industry. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024e will be RMB 1.003/14.58/1.852 billion respectively, the corresponding EPS will be RMB 0.62/0.90/1.14 respectively, and the PE corresponding to the current stock price will be 18x / 12x / 10x respectively. The valuation of the integrated company is relatively low, and the orders of the photovoltaic industry chain began to increase. "Buy" rating is given for the first time.
Risk warning: the investment and construction of photovoltaic project is not as expected; Intensified competition in silicon wafer industry; Changes in photovoltaic industry policies.
