\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 865 Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) )
Key investment points
Photovoltaic glass shipments increased significantly, and the price rise of raw materials and profits were under pressure in the short term
In 2021, the company's photovoltaic glass business achieved an operating revenue of 7.122 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.28%, a gross profit margin of 35.70%, a year-on-year decrease of 9.22 PCT, and a photovoltaic glass sales of 265 million Ping, a year-on-year increase of 43.17%. With the launch of the company's new production capacity, the shipment volume of photovoltaic glass increased significantly. However, due to the rise of raw material and fuel prices, the cost continued to rise, and with the gradual release of the overall production capacity of the industry, the price of photovoltaic glass decreased significantly, which had a certain impact on the profitability of the company's photovoltaic glass.
The production capacity of photovoltaic glass continues to expand, and the leading position of the industry is stable
At the end of 2021, the company's total photovoltaic glass production capacity was 12200t / D. the phase III and phase IV projects of Anhui production base are under construction. At the same time, the group plans to build four photovoltaic glass kilns with a daily melting capacity of 1200t / D in Nantong City, Jiangsu Province. At present, this project is in the process of approval. It is estimated that seven 1200t / D photovoltaic glass production capacity will be put into operation in 2022, and the total production capacity will be 20600t / D by the end of 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 69%.
Acquire quartz placer, open up the upstream industrial chain and ensure the stable supply of raw materials
On February 13, 2022, the company entered into a supplementary agreement to the equity transfer agreement with fengsha mining. At present, the company has completed the acquisition of high-quality quartz placer of Sanli mining and Dahua mining, and has two quartz placer supply capacities totaling 2.4 million tons / year. Dahua mining has a mining right with a production scale of 500000 tons / year, and is going through the production expansion procedures of changing to 2.6 million tons / year; Sanli mining has a mining right with a production scale of 1.9 million tons / year, and is going through the production expansion procedures to change it to 4 million tons / year.
Profit forecast and valuation
The company is a leading enterprise of photovoltaic glass, with rapid expansion of production capacity. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 3.018 billion yuan, 4.077 billion yuan and 5.065 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be 1.39, 1.88 and 2.34 yuan / share respectively. The corresponding valuation will be 32, 24 and 19 times respectively, giving a "buy" rating.
Risk tips:
The demand for photovoltaic installation is less than expected; Rising prices of raw materials; The progress of the project is less than expected.
