\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 862 Avic Aviation High-Technology Co.Ltd(600862) )
On April 22, the company disclosed the first quarterly report of 2022, realizing an operating revenue of 1.155 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.64%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 291 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.74%.
A number of indicators on the report side continue to improve, and the annual performance is expected to achieve rapid and large-scale
During the 22q1 period, the company realized an operating revenue of 1.155 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.64%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 291 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 22.74%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 288 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 26.62%. Among them, the aviation new materials business realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 309 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 18.52%, mainly due to the increase in the delivery of aviation composite products; The net profit attributable to the parent company of machine tool equipment business was -122287 million yuan, with a year-on-year loss of 1.7408 million yuan. The loss reduction was mainly due to the reduction of expenses during the period affected by the epidemic.
22q1’s three expenses accounted for 6.12% of its operating revenue, down 1.09 percentage points from last year and 0.20 percentage points from the same period last year. The company achieved remarkable results in improving quality and efficiency. In terms of profit margin, the gross profit margin was 37.35%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.03 percentage points; The net interest rate was 25.18%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.24 percentage points. We judged that the increase in profitability was mainly due to the growth of composite business income.
On the asset liability side, 22q1 accounts receivable and notes reached 2.610 billion yuan, an increase of 55.75% over the beginning of the period; 22q1 advance payment reached 140 million yuan, an increase of 6.58% over the beginning of the period; 22q1 advance collection + contract liabilities reached 769 million yuan, an increase of 3.46% over the beginning of the period, and all indicators set a new high in recent three years. We believe that the rapid improvement of indicators indicates that the company has sufficient orders on hand, and the company may be in a state of active production and goods preparation, so as to realize the high prospect of the industry. It is expected that the annual economic indicators of the company are expected to be completed on schedule.
Aviation Manufacturing Institute has become the controlling shareholder with significant card position advantages
On April 1, 2021, the company announced that the aviation industry entrusted all the rights corresponding to all the shares of the company (42.86%) except the right of return and disposal of shares to the aviation manufacturing research institute, which became the controlling shareholder of the company. We believe that the change of ownership structure is expected to improve the company’s operation and management efficiency, promote the company’s business development, and carry out capital operation in the future. In addition, the company is the first enterprise in China to participate in aviation prepreg. After years of experience, the company has established a complete resin system. From the perspective of industrial chain, the intermediate link of the company’s card prepreg occupies a leading position in the field of aviation prepreg in China.
The demand for prepreg for military and civilian machines has increased, and it is optimistic that the composite business will continue to grow at a high rate
The proportion of carbon fiber composite materials used in China’s new military aircraft continues to increase. With the continuous progress of batch production of new models, the demand for carbon fiber composite materials has increased significantly. It is expected that the demand for carbon fiber composite materials for Chinese military aircraft will reach 11090 tons during the 14th five year plan period, with an average annual demand of 2218 tons. 2021h1 has completed the design of a test piece of C919 and carried out the conceptual design of cr929 wing project. At the same time, the company has obtained the qualification of the only supplier selected for the front fuselage work package of COMAC cr929 aircraft. We expect that in the next 20 years, the demand for carbon fiber composites for large domestic aircraft in China will reach 48290 tons, with an average annual demand of 2415 tons. C919 aircraft will be delivered for commercial operation within this year, and the application of domestic composite materials will be accelerated. We believe that with the continuous improvement of China’s demand for military and civil aircraft composite materials, the company’s aviation composite materials business will continue to grow at a high rate.
Profit forecast and rating: as a leading enterprise of aviation prepreg, the company has obvious advantages, the demand for military and civilian aircraft has increased significantly, and the aviation composite business has maintained rapid growth. We are optimistic about the long-term development of the company in the future. Considering that the company’s performance in 2021 is lower than the market expectation, we adjusted the base and lowered the expectation of net profit attributable to the parent company from 9.80/13.69 to 7981081 million yuan from 2022 to 2023, which is expected to be 1.412 billion yuan in 2024, corresponding to EPS of 0.57/0.78/1.01 yuan and PE of 40.38/29.82/22.84x, giving a “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the batch production progress of new military aircraft is less than expected; The progress of civil aircraft project is less than expected; The price of military products is controlled by the state, and there is a risk of decline.
