\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 96 Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) )
Performance review
The company announced on April 29 that it had achieved a revenue of 13.27 billion yuan in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of + 28.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.298 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.9%; 21q4 revenue was 3.168 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 42.51%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 329 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 3.81%. 22q1 revenue was 5.274 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 27.71%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.099 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 34.9%.
Business analysis
The Yellow Crane Tower has recovered significantly, and the upgrading of the original pulp structure continues. 1) By products, the revenue of raw pulp / Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) / Yellow Crane Tower in 21 years was RMB 9.308/16.09/1.134 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 18.81% / + 16.62% / + 168.69%. The Yellow Crane Tower has been seriously affected by the epidemic in Hubei in the past 20 years. The income in the past 21 years has increased by 26% compared with that in the past 19 years, and the volume / price has increased by + 100.5% / + 34% year-on-year, with a good recovery trend. The 21-year revenue of raw pulp accounted for 71%, the sales volume was 43200 tons, and the volume / price was + 1.4% / + 17.2% year-on-year; We expect that the income of Gu 8 and above will account for about 40% in 21 years, Gu 20 will continue to increase at a high rate, Gu 16 or nearly double, Gu 8 will increase at a growth rate of more than 20%, Gu 5. Gift control and price protection, and the product structure will continue to upgrade. 2) By region, the revenue of North China / Central China / South China in 21 years was 1.071/11.311878 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 54.5% / + 25.5% / + 51.4%, and the proportion of central China decreased by 2.4pct to 85.2%. In the past 21 years, 159 / 72 / 381 dealers in North China / South China / Central China increased net, and the nationalization continued to advance.
In the 21st year, the profitability was stable, and Q4 prepared goods in advance for the Spring Festival. The net profit margin of the year was -0.1pct year-on-year, of which: 1) the gross profit margin was -0.1pct year-on-year, mainly due to the drag of hotels and other businesses. The gross profit margin of the year's raw pulp / Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) / Yellow Crane Tower was + 1.7 / - 1.6 / + 6.5pct year-on-year. Structural optimization, price increase of Gu 20 and recovery of Yellow Crane Tower contributed to the gross profit margin; 2) The sales / management rate was - 0.1 / - 0.1pct year-on-year, and the operating efficiency was stable. The high increase in Q4 revenue was due to the advance payment and preparation of goods during the Spring Festival. Q1 + Q4 revenue was + 33% year-on-year and sales cash received was + 59% year-on-year. Q4 net profit margin was -3.3pct year-on-year and gross profit margin was -0.4pct year-on-year; The sales rate is + 1.0pct year-on-year, which is expected to be the promotion and advertising expenses of the Spring Festival confirmed in advance; The management rate is -1.9pct year-on-year; The proportion of taxes and surcharges was + 1.0pct year-on-year, or due to the mismatch of tax payment rhythm.
The demand driven by the return tide in Anhui exceeded expectations, and the pre harvest reservoir in Q1 was sufficient. According to channel feedback, the proportion of payment collection in Gujing Q1 is more than 5pct higher than that in previous years. The policy of returning home during the Spring Festival is relaxed, and the dynamic sales of Huizhou wine are in short supply. 22q1 sales cash received + 54.9% year-on-year, and contract liabilities at the end of the period + 141.4% year-on-year, which is the potential energy for subsequent accumulation. 22q1 net profit margin + 1.1pct year-on-year, gross profit margin + 0.9pct year-on-year, and the product structure continued to improve; The sales / management rate was + 0.6 / + 0.5pct year-on-year, and the proportion of taxes and surcharges was - 1.2pct year-on-year.
The epidemic disturbance does not change the escalation trend, and the long-term net interest rate is expected to increase. Recently, the epidemic situation in Anhui has been repeated, and the company's channel inventory is benign (comprehensive inventory 12-15%), waiting for the demand of the Dragon Boat Festival to recover. In 22 years, the company plans to achieve revenue of 15.3 billion yuan (year-on-year + 15.3%); The total profit was 3.55 billion yuan (year-on-year + 11.94%), and the expected excess was finally achieved with reference to historical experience. We believe that Anhui's own economic growth is leading, the upgrading space is broad, and the real estate wine is strong. Gujing, as longyi, gu16 cut into the banquet, and GU20 card seat is 600 yuan, which may fully benefit from the dividend in the change of price belt. In addition, the company's net interest rate is at a low level in the industry, and there is also great room for improvement in the future.
Profit forecast
It is estimated that the growth rate of revenue in 22-24 years is 23% / 21% / 19%, the growth rate of net profit attributable to parent company is 29% / 25% / 21%, EPS is 5.63/7.03/8.52 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 35 / 28 / 23x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Repeated epidemic risks, increased risks of regional competition, low expected rate of structural upgrading, and food safety problems.
