\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) 600)
Key investment points
The product structure is upgraded in echelons under the layout of dual brands
Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) is a domestic brand with a long history. Through the development stages of extension M & A, connotation development, adjustment and transformation and high-end upgrading, it has formed the trend of dual brand strategic layout, one body and two wings product structure and one vertical and two horizontal market pattern: 1) dual brand strategic layout: after three rounds of brand strategic adjustment, the company has formed a "1 + 1" dual brand pattern, and Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) positioning as medium and high-end Laoshan beer is positioned as a popular file, which is conducive to clarifying the brand positioning. 2) One body and two wings product structure: the one body and two wings product structure of the main brand includes pure health + classic + ultra-high end + new and special products. The price band positioning is clear, which is conducive to product upgrading. At the same time, it focuses on core products and gradually replaces local products with Qingdao and Laoshan products. 3) One vertical and two horizontal market pattern: Based on the base market of Shandong, accelerate the improvement of profits along the Yellow River, develop rapidly along the coast, get out of the market depression along the river, and the market growth in the northeast is bright. Thanks to structural upgrading, profitability continued to improve, helping roe to rise from the bottom, and roe recovered from 6.37% in 2016 to 14.47% in 2021.
Beer has entered the stage of fierce stock competition, and the structure has been upgraded to the future development direction
1) volume: since the sales volume peaked in 2013, the total output has entered the downward channel due to the decline in the number of mainstream consumers and serious product homogenization. In 2021, the production and sales volume of China's beer industry rebounded slightly from the low base. It is expected that the beer sales volume will remain stable in the next four years. 2) Price: with the accelerated process of consumption upgrading, the era of economic product dominance has come to an end, high-end has become a general trend, and high-end capacity is the main competitive point of current liquor enterprises.
3) market pattern: China's beer industry has a Cr5 of 73%, which is in the stage of oligopoly competition. In the stage of oligopoly competition, while consolidating the market position of the base, the leading liquor enterprises actively explore other markets by taking advantage of the advantages of brand, quality and channel.
Three advantages help the high-end process and take multiple measures to improve profitability
Relying on the three advantages of century old brand accumulation, the ability to create large single products of subdivided categories and high-end channel operation mode, the company leads the industry in the high-end process: 1) century old brand accumulation: Tsingtao beer is a century old national product, and its brand value ranks first in China's beer industry for a long time. Relying on the high-end product strategy + the brand strategy of keeping pace with the times, the company can make the brand high-end and young; 2) Ability to create large single products of subdivided categories: the company has the only national key laboratory in the beer industry. Relying on deep process reserves and the ability to create explosive products of subdivided categories, the company has successfully created two representative products of Qingdao pure raw beer and Qingdao white beer, and is expected to continue to cultivate other large single products of subdivided categories of more than 100000 tons after pure raw beer and white beer, which will effectively increase revenue and profit.
3) high end channel operation mode: in 2008, it took the lead in launching the key customer + micro operation mode in the industry, which is in line with the high-end strategy and can realize the echelon upgrading of the operation mode. With the accelerated upgrading of the high-end of the three competitive advantages, the company promoted the continuous improvement of profitability by pulling out the structure + controlling the cost + increasing the canning rate. From 2016 to 2021, the overall ton price of the company increased by 15.41% to 3804 yuan / ton, and the net interest rate increased by 6.56pct to 10.79%.
Exceeding expectations: the repair speed after the epidemic exceeded expectations in the short term, and the long-term average price and profit margin continued to improve
The repair speed after the short-term epidemic is faster than expected: the market believes that due to the impact of the epidemic on the consumption scene of current drinks, the sales volume in Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) 3 of 22 years decreased by more than 20% year-on-year, the sales volume decreased by double digits in April, the Tsingtao beer was greatly damaged, and the annual growth may be affected. We believe that with the opening of catering channels in Shandong, the marginal trend is obvious up to may, and the sales volume is expected to decline only in single digits, with the improvement range significantly higher than that of competitors. Under the stock replenishment market, the post epidemic repair progress is higher than expected, and there may be compensatory consumption in June. With reference to the post epidemic income, profit and valuation repair in 20 years, we are optimistic about the current stage elastic opportunities of Tsingtao beer.
The long-term improvement space of ton price and the sustainability of profitability are higher than expected: the market believes that the growth rate of pure green beer has slowed down in recent years, and the structural improvement speed may be lower than expected, or affect the continuous improvement of ton price and profitability. We believe that: at present, the company has made in-depth adjustment to pure draft beer by means of new packaging, changing brand spokesmen, developing circulation channels and sinking the market. With reference to the upgrading path of ordinary beer pure draft beer in developed countries and the 45% proportion of Japanese pure draft beer, the current proportion of pure draft beer in China is less than 5%, and Qingdao pure draft still has great growth space. In addition, white beer is expected to maintain a high-speed growth trend in the past two years, or reach the order of 200000 tons in 23 years. With the high growth of white beer, the pure raw and classic single products maintain rapid growth, and the company is expected to continue to cultivate high-end single products of subdivided categories above 100000 tons. It is expected that the ton price of green beer will still have more than 30% room for improvement, and the space for ton price improvement and profitability improvement may be more sustainable than expected.
Profit forecast and valuation
We believe that the epidemic situation and cost are only short-term disturbances, the upgrading trend of green beer product structure and profitability remains unchanged, the two major single products of pure raw beer and classic beer are expected to maintain rapid growth, white beer continues the high growth trend, and we are optimistic about the long-term growth of the company. With reference to the significant improvement in the valuation after the epidemic in 20 years, considering that Tsingtao Beer led the industry in the month on month performance in May 22, and the progress of post epidemic repair exceeded expectations under the background of replenishing inventory, the valuation flexibility is large. It is estimated that the revenue growth rate from 2022 to 2024 will be 7.7%, 7.2% and 6.3% respectively; The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.5%, 18.7% and 18.2% respectively; EPS is 2.5 / 3.0 / 3.5 yuan / share respectively; PE is 34 / 29 / 24 times respectively. The long-term performance has strong growth, the current valuation has cost performance, and the buy rating is given for the first time.
Catalyst: continuous upgrading of consumption, restoration of catering industry chain after the epidemic, and rapid growth of pure production;
Risk tip: the epidemic situation in China has repeatedly affected the overall dynamic sales of beer; The situation of pure production classic movable pin is less than expected.
