\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 138 China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) )
Report guide
China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) is China's comprehensive tourism leader, relying on Everbright Group's strategy of "tourism + finance" to enhance brand strength and product strength. The company has leading experience in the development and management of scenic spots and the ability to expand in other places. It has two high-quality scenic spots, Wuzhen and gubeishui Town, benefiting from the trend of surrounding tourism and the upgrading demand of leisure consumption. The company has been engaged in tourism for more than 40 years and continuously promoted the integration and extension of the industrial chain. Its existing business also involves travel agencies, hotels, exhibitions and it. Its business layout is diversified and its anti risk ability is strong. Puyuan, the company's second remote replication project, is expected to open within this year and is expected to become an incremental performance.
Key investment points
It has been deeply cultivated for more than 40 years, with outstanding brand value, backed by Everbright, and obvious industrial and financial advantages
The company, formerly known as China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) head office established in 1980, has accumulated profound brand value. The equity of the company was transferred from the Central Committee of the Communist Youth League to Everbright in 2019, which is expected to give play to the strategic synergy of "tourism + finance". In 2020, affected by the epidemic, the company lost money for the first time. In 2021, the local epidemic was repeated, and the performance recovery slowed down. The annual revenue was 8.635 billion yuan / yoy + 21%, which recovered to 68% in 19 years. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 21 million yuan, turning the loss into profit year-on-year.
Under the epidemic, the supply and demand of the industry ushered in bilateral changes, and the pace of upgrading cultural and tourism consumption accelerated
Under the influence of policies such as the inter provincial travel circuit breaker mechanism, residents' travel preferences have changed, and their willingness to choose short distance travel has increased significantly, catalyzing the rise of peripheral travel. In recent years, the improvement of residents' consumption level has promoted the transformation and upgrading of tourism demand from traditional sightseeing tourism to leisure and vacation tourism. Under the epidemic, outbound tourism has stagnated, and the return potential of tourism consumption is huge. In addition, the requirements of the 14th five year plan are added to enrich high-quality tourism supply, promote the improvement and expansion of China's tourism supply, and undertake the return demand of outbound tourism. Changes in the supply and demand sides of the industry, and high-quality scenic spots with superior location will usher in development opportunities.
The two high-quality scenic spots benefit from peripheral tourism and consumption upgrading, and pay attention to the development opportunities of ice and snow projects driven by the Winter Olympic Games and the spillover effect of the Asian Games
The company has the leading ability of scenic spot development and management, successfully built Wuzhen into the cover of Jiangnan Water Town, and realized the remote expansion of Wuzhen mode. Wuzhen town and gubeishui town are located in the Yangtze River Delta and the capital Bohai rim respectively, benefiting from the large passenger flow and high consumption of the surrounding urban agglomeration. It has rich business forms, meets the growing demand for leisure and vacation, effectively prolongs the stay time and drives the increase of customer unit price. The blessing of convention and exhibition business has brought about the improvement of passenger flow structure and influence. Rich folk activities boost passenger flow in the off-season. Cultural creation and empowerment, Wuzhen Drama Festival constructs an insurmountable cultural moat. The new project Puyuan is expected to open within this year, which is expected to bring incremental performance. In addition, pay attention to the development of ice and snow projects driven by the Winter Olympics and the spillover effect brought by the upcoming Hangzhou Asian Games.
Business diversification and coordination, strong anti risk ability, and support performance during the epidemic
The company has experienced three development stages: Taking the travel agency business as the core, taking the scenic spot business as the main body and exploring the "tourism +" ecology. The existing business covers travel agency, exhibition, scenic spot, hotel, it business and property leasing. The company has diversified business layout and strong anti risk ability. The epidemic has led to continued pressure on the business of scenic spots and travel agencies. It, integrated marketing and other non tourism businesses grew against the trend and became the main source of revenue.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that from 2022 to 2024, the operating revenue will be RMB 9.411 billion, with a year-on-year change of + 9% / + 18% / + 46%, the net profit will be RMB 159 / 378 / 626 million, the EPS will be RMB 0.22/0.52/0.86/share respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 47x / 20x / 12x respectively. Based on the fact that the company is the target of scarcity of high-quality scenic spots, once the epidemic stabilizes, the passenger flow will recover strongly, the company will usher in the performance outbreak, the new project Puyuan will further open the performance space, and the company has diversified business and strong anti risk ability. We will give 15xpe in 2024, discount to the corresponding target price of 11.82 yuan / share in 2022, and give the rating of "overweight" for the first time.
Risk tips
Repeated epidemics and continuous tightening of prevention and control policies have led to slow recovery of passenger flow and less than expected recovery of inter provincial and group tours; The opening time of Puyuan in the new scenic spot was postponed; Fierce competition in surrounding scenic spots leads to passenger diversion.
