\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 153 Xiamen C&D Inc(600153) )
Backed by the leading state-owned enterprises in Xiamen, the "supply chain + real estate" dual core drive has obvious financing advantages
(1) Xiamen C&D Inc(600153) is the supply chain and real estate platform of Xiamen state-owned enterprise leading construction and development group, and the actual controller is Xiamen SASAC. (2) The company's main business includes supply chain operation business and real estate business, of which supply chain operation is the main source of revenue. In 2021, the revenue of supply chain operation and real estate business accounted for 86.4% and 13.6% respectively. Because the gross profit margin of real estate development business is much higher than that of supply chain business, it contributes more to the gross profit. In 2021, the gross profit of supply chain operation and real estate business accounted for 36.1% and 63.9% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company contributed by the two business segments fluctuated slightly in the past few years. In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company contributed by the supply chain operation business was 3.2 billion yuan, and that of the real estate business was 2.9 billion yuan. The net profit attributable to the parent company contributed by the supply chain operation business temporarily exceeded that of the real estate business. (3) Financial stability and abundant funds in hand. The core debt indicators under the respective control of the company's real estate operation platform, Jianfa real estate and Lianfa group, have maintained the green file of "three red lines" for many years, and their financial stability. By the end of 2021, the company held monetary capital of 90.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 67.8%, with strong solvency. (4) Diversified financing channels and obvious interest rate advantages. The company has diversified financing channels. The weighted average cost of bonds issued since 2022 is only 2.88%, which has obvious financing advantages compared with peer companies.
Supply chain business: transformation service provider, stable leading position and continuous growth of revenue
(1) in line with the trend of globalization, the industry concentration will be further improved, which will benefit the leading enterprises. The company has been deeply engaged in the industry for many years. At present, it has become a leading enterprise in the supply chain industry, but the market share is still low compared with the overseas market. Under the trend of globalization, the importance of supply chain industry is highlighted. With the in-depth promotion of supply side structural reform, the industry will gradually concentrate on efficient and professional large enterprises. The company is expected to benefit from the trend of increasing concentration and obtain more market share. (2) Transformation service providers, better profit model. The core business model of traders is transaction price spread. With the improvement of market transparency and the fluctuation of commodity prices, the profit space is greatly compressed, while service providers charge service fees. Although the profit margin is low, the profit model is more stable. The gross profit margin of the company's supply chain operation sector gradually decreased from 5.0% in 2011 to 1.5% in 2021, but the revenue and gross profit increased steadily. In 2021, the revenue of supply chain operation business was 611.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 74.5%, and the gross profit was 9.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 44.4%. (3) The work of improving quality and efficiency has shown initial results, and there is still room for improvement in the net interest rate index in the future. With the development of futures market, supply chain operation business mostly adopts the business form of combination of futures and cash, and the gross profit margin can only reflect the profitability of spot end. In terms of net interest rate, the company increased from 0.50% in 2020 to 0.54% in 2021. There is still room for improvement in the future. (4) "The strong will always be the strong", and the business volume in the field of metallurgical raw materials and agricultural and forestry products continued to grow. According to the company's annual report, in 2021, the volume of major bulk commodities such as ferrous metals, non-ferrous metals, mineral products, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , pulp and paper, energy and chemical products operated by the company exceeded 17 million tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 36%. (5) Expand service areas relying on "lift" system. Since the official release of the "lift" supply chain brand in 2018, relying on its customizable and highly reproducible characteristics, the company has expanded its service field from the field of metallurgical raw materials and agricultural and forestry products for many years to the industrial chain of consumer goods and new energy. In 2021, the supply chain revenue of the consumer goods industry exceeded 32 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 20%.
Real estate business: sales growth against the trend, abundant soil reserves, both quality and broad growth space
(1) dual platform operation, differentiated positioning, and complementary product lines and coverage areas. The real estate business of the company is operated by two platforms: Jianfa real estate and Lianfa group. Among them, Jianfa real estate is mainly located in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and Fujian Province, positioning medium and high-end improved housing. Lianfa group is mainly located in the popular second and third tier urban areas, and has created three product lines of "Yue Department", "Zhen Department" and "Jiahe Department". At present, the company's business has expanded to more than 30 cities across the country, forming complementary advantages of first, second and third tier cities. (2) Sales grew against the trend and the revenue of the sector expanded rapidly. Since 2017, the company's real estate sales have achieved leapfrog growth. The full caliber sales have increased from 30 billion yuan in 2016 to 217.6 billion yuan in 2021, with a compound growth rate of 39.1%. Especially in the case of the overall decline in the growth rate of industry sales, according to Kerui data, the growth rate of the company's full caliber contract sales in 2021 still reached 35%, ranking first among the top 50 real estate enterprises. The sales growth promoted the high growth of the company's real estate revenue. In 2020, the annual revenue was 82.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 79.5%, and in 2021, the annual revenue was 96.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.9%. The sales of the real estate industry has a pre impact on the determination of future performance. The high growth of sales in recent years will also provide support for the sustained high growth of revenue in the next two years. (3) Keep the passion of land acquisition, with abundant soil reserves and high quality. The company continued to maintain a high-intensity rhythm of land acquisition. In 2017, the investment sales ratio calculated according to the equity dimension reached 107%. Even in 2021, when the land market was cold, the company obtained 114 pieces of land, with a new capacity building area of 13.44 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of + 43.4%. As of the end of 2021, the company's equity based land reserves totaled 21.87 million square meters. From the perspective of distribution, they are mainly distributed in high-energy cities in Fujian, Jiangsu, Hunan and other provinces. The estimated equity value of land reserves in first and second tier cities accounts for more than 70%. (4) The primary land development business and property value-added services contribute additional profits. As a company actually controlled by Xiamen SASAC, it currently holds two first-class land development projects, "Houpu fanghu old village reconstruction" and "Zhongzhai she community old village reconstruction". By the end of 2021, the project area under the management of the company's property management company had reached 48.91 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of + 26.0%.
Investment advice
The actual controller of the company is Xiamen SASAC, with state-owned background and natural financing advantages. With "supply chain + real estate" as the dual main business operation, the supply chain benefits from the improvement of industry concentration, and the revenue of the sector is expected to continue to grow; In terms of real estate development, the company maintained a high-intensity rhythm of land acquisition, abundant soil reserves and high urban energy level, which effectively supported the high growth of sector revenue. It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.28, 2.59 and 2.94 respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 5.89, 5.19 and 4.57 times respectively. It will be covered for the first time and given a "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Commodity prices fluctuate, real estate sales and payment collection are less than expected, policies are tightened more than expected, financing costs rise, exchange rate risk, etc.
